Scott Alexander makes predictions at the start of every year and scores them at the end of every year.

This is judged as of 31 Dec 2016. TRUE if, for every year from the start of his practice through 2016, Scott Alexander published a set of predictions at or near the start of the year and a scoring of them at or near the end of the year (or very early the next year). MOSTLY TRUE if the practice was annual but some predictions or scorings were published weeks late (for example predictions in February or scorings in January), or one early year was not fully scored. MOSTLY FALSE if the practice was irregular, with several years missing either predictions or scorings. FALSE if he did not have such a yearly practice.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 (Late) Predictions for 2015 Slate Star Codex (Scott Alexander's blog) · 13 June 2015 Own record

   “Everything went according to plan last year – last January I made predictions for 2014 and then this January I scored them.”

2. E2 (Late) Predictions for 2015 Slate Star Codex (Scott Alexander's blog) · 13 June 2015 Own record

   “So now that it’s June and predicting what will happen in 2015 is about 40% easier, I might as well get started.”

The evidence shows that 2014 was predicted in January and scored the next January [E2], and that the 2015 predictions were published in June [E3]. It does not cover the 2015 scoring or the 2016 predictions and scoring, so it cannot settle the claim under the criteria, which require every year through 2016.