Nate Silver said he thought the events he was discussing in April 2025, which he called "a huge story" and "a fundamental change in the United States's relationship with the rest of the world", would be remembered as at least in line with the 1987 stock market crash.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Reasoning
How events will be 'remembered' compared with 1987 is vague and has no defined horizon.
Cite this claim
Nate Silver, “Nate Silver said he thought the events he was discussing in April 2025, which he called "a huge story" and "a fundamental change in the United States's relationship with the rest of the world", would be remembered as at least in line with the 1987 stock market crash.” (said 8 April 2025). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_92eb55c1eae3, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_92eb55c1eae3
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Nate Silver
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Mixed
“Children's toys are gonna become much more expensive because they're made in countries like Vietnam in Southeast Asia that are heavily taraffed.”
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Mostly true
“I think people might understand with Kamala Harris that it's inherently a difficult circumstance and a little bit of a long shot bid, but that her chances are probably better than Biden.”
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Mixed
“Most voters aren’t paying attention yet, and it will be nine months to a year before they do.”
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Mostly false
“I’d argue that 1 (Biden winning) is more likely than 2 (Trump winning) which, in turn, is more likely than 3 (someone else winning).”
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Mostly false
“If Trump does well in Iowa and New Hampshire — and there’s no snafu for Biden — they could become their party’s presumptive nominees as soon as February”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.