ClaimsBill Ackman

“You’re going to see return of 5-7% annual unit growth.”

Bill Ackman, speaking at Ira Sohn Conference 6 June 2011 Transcript of Bill Ackman's Super Fast Speech at the Ira Sohn Conference (Insider Monkey)

Prediction Economics and markets

Family Dollar will return to 5-7% annual unit growth.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

What would count as true or false

Measure Family Dollar's annual net store-count (unit) growth in the fiscal years after June 2011 (FY2012, FY2013, FY2014, and FY2015 if reported) until it stopped reporting independently after Dollar Tree acquired it. The claim states the range 5–7%. TRUE: annual net unit growth was within 5–7% in at least two of those fiscal years, showing a return to that growth rate. MOSTLY TRUE: unit growth was within 5–7% in one fiscal year and close to the range (within about 0.2 points) in another. MOSTLY FALSE: growth rose but peaked just below 5% (about 4.8–4.99%) or reached the range in only one year and then fell well below it. FALSE: unit growth stayed clearly below 5% in every fiscal year (or exceeded 7% by more than about 0.2 points throughout).

Set before the research began.

Evidence (9)

  1. E1 13003078.pdf U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Family Dollar Stores, Inc. annual report for fiscal 2013) · 28 October 2013

    “we have targeted annual square footage growth of 5% to 7%”
  2. E2 13003078.pdf U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Family Dollar Stores, Inc. annual report for fiscal 2013) · 28 October 2013

    “500 new stores finishing the year with 7916 stores”
  3. E3 FAMILY DOLLAR STORES INC - 10-K - MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS InsuranceNewsNet · 19 October 2012

    “We operate a chain of more than 7,400 general merchandise retail discount stores in 45 states”
  4. E4 FDO-2014.08.30-10K - SEC.gov U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Family Dollar Stores, Inc. Form 10-K for fiscal 2014) · 30 August 2014

    “At the end of fiscal 2014, each distribution center served an average of 730 stores, as compared to 720 stores in fiscal 2013.”
  5. E5 Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended August 31, 2013 (Family Dollar Stores, Inc.) with shareholder letter U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (filed by Family Dollar Stores, Inc.) · 2013

    “500 stores closed 26 stores and renovated relocated or expanded 830”
  6. E6 FAMILY DOLLAR STORES INC - 10-K - MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS InsuranceNewsNet

    “During fiscal 2013, we plan to open approximately 500 new stores, which we expect will sustain our square footage growth goal of 5% to 7%, which we achieved in fiscal 2012.”
  7. E7 America's Fastest-Growing Retailers 24/7 Wall St. · 12 August 2014

    “> Total U.S. stores (2013): 7,916 > 1-yr. store growth: 6.4%”
  8. E8 America's Fastest-Growing Retailers 24/7 Wall St. · 12 August 2014

    “The company also opened 506 new stores in the fiscal year 2013.”
  9. E9 Family Dollar Stores generate $10.5 billion in fiscal 2014, up 0.9% Drug Store News · 10 October 2014

    “During fiscal 2014, the company opened 526 new stores, closed 400 stores, and renovated, relocated or expanded 738 stores.”

Reasoning

FY2013 net unit growth was about 6.4% (500 opened, 26 closed, ending at 7,916 stores), within the 5–7% range (E2, E6, E9). FY2014 net growth was about 1.6% (526 opened, 400 closed), well below the range (E11). FY2012 store-count growth cannot be computed: E3 gives only "more than 7,400" stores, and E7's 5–7% achievement refers to square footage, not units. Whether the claim is true, mostly true or mostly false depends on FY2012 unit growth, which the evidence does not establish.

Cite this claim

Bill Ackman, “Family Dollar will return to 5-7% annual unit growth.” (said 6 June 2011). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_922918af8d5f, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_922918af8d5f

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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