Scott Alexander makes predictions at the beginning of every year.

Judge as of 2017-01-06. True: Scott Alexander published a set of predictions for the coming year at or near the start of each year in his blogging history up to 2017 (e.g. SSC posts of predictions for 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017, plus any earlier ones on LiveJournal). Mostly true: he did so in nearly every year, with one gap or one set published well after the start of the year. Mixed: he made yearly predictions in only about half of the relevant years. Mostly false: he made such predictions only once or twice. False: there is no record of him making beginning-of-year predictions.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Predictions For 2014 Slate Star Codex · 28 January 2014 Own record

   “Unless otherwise specified, predictions are about whether something happens before the end of 2014”

2. E2 (Late) Predictions for 2015 Slate Star Codex · 13 June 2015 Own record

   “I was supposed to institute a tradition of making predictions at the beginning of each year, then grading them at the end to test my calibration.”

3. E3 2014 Predictions: Calibration Results Slate Star Codex (Scott Alexander's blog) · 1 January 2015 Own record

   “Last year in January I made some predictions for 2014 and gave my calibration level for each.”

4. E4 2014 Predictions: Calibration Results Slate Star Codex (Scott Alexander's blog) · 1 January 2015 Own record

   “2015 predictions coming soon.”

E1 and E5 show that a set of 2014 predictions was posted in January 2014. E2 shows the 2015 set came out in June 2015, labelled "(Late)", and its own wording says the tradition was something he "was supposed to institute". That makes 2015 a set published well after the start of the year. None of the evidence covers 2016, 2017 or any earlier LiveJournal predictions, so it can't be determined whether this was a single late year (mostly true) or there were further gaps (mixed or worse).