Pershing Square said it believed Tim Hortons' recent same-store sales slowdown would ultimately prove temporary, and expected the "Winning Together" plan and recent leadership changes to enable a return to historical growth rates.

Define 'historical rates of growth' as Tim Hortons Canada's average annual comparable (same-store) sales growth over roughly 2010–2016, as reported by Tim Hortons or Restaurant Brands International (RBI). Compare it with Tim Hortons Canada's annual comparable sales growth in fiscal 2019 through 2023. Years with results distorted by the pandemic (2020, and 2021 recovery comps) should be read alongside two-year stacked figures. TRUE: in at least two full fiscal years in that window (excluding pure pandemic-rebound comps), comparable sales growth was at or above the historical average, or within about 1 percentage point of it. MOSTLY TRUE: it reached the historical rate in one non-distorted year and stayed near it otherwise. MIXED: growth improved clearly from the 2017–2018 slowdown but stayed noticeably below historical rates. MOSTLY FALSE: growth matched historical rates only through rebound or inflation-driven comps, or briefly. FALSE: comparable sales growth stayed at or below the 2017–2018 slowdown levels throughout.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Restaurant Brands International - 10-K annual report 2023 companiesmarketcap.com (republishes RBI's FY2023 Form 10-K)

   “During 2023, the increase in TH system-wide sales of 11.0% was primarily driven by comparable sales of 10.4%, including Canada comparable sales of 10.9%, and net restaurant growth of 0.1%.”

2. E2 Document Restaurant Brands International Inc. (SEC Exhibit 99, Q4/FY2020 earnings release) · 11 February 2021

   “For the full year and fourth quarter, the decrease in system-wide sales was primarily driven by a decrease in comparable sales of (15.7)% and (11.0)%, respectively, including Canada comparable sales of (16.5)% and (11.9)%, respectively, for the same periods.”

3. E3 Restaurant Brands International - 10-K annual report 2023 companiesmarketcap.com (reproduces RBI's FY2023 Form 10-K text)

   “During 2023, the increase in TH system-wide sales of 11.0% was primarily driven by comparable sales of 10.4%, including Canada comparable sales of 10.9%, and net restaurant growth of 0.1%.”

4. E4 Restaurant Brands International Inc. Reports Full Year and Fourth Quarter 2020 Results Restaurant Brands International Inc. (via SEC EDGAR, Exhibit 99) · 11 February 2021

   “For the full year and fourth quarter, the decrease in system-wide sales was primarily driven by a decrease in comparable sales of (15.7)% and (11.0)%, respectively, including Canada comparable sales of (16.5)% and (11.9)%, respectively, for the same periods.”

5. E5 Form 10-K for fiscal year ended December 31, 2016 (Restaurant Brands International Limited Partnership) U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (filed by Restaurant Brands International Limited Partnership)

   “| Tim Hortons (g) | | | 2.5 | % | | | 5.6 | % | | | 3.1 | % |”

6. E6 Restaurant Brands International Reports Full Year and Fourth Quarter 2015 Results Restaurant Brands International Inc. (RBI) via CNW · 16 February 2016

   “In 2015, we achieved consolidated TH comparable sales growth of 5.6%, with TH Canada and TH US comparable sales growth of 5.5% and 6.4%, respectively.”

7. E7 Restaurant Brands International Inc. Reports Full Year and Fourth Quarter 2021 Results Restaurant Brands International Inc. (RBI) via CNW · 15 February 2022

   “For the full year and fourth quarter, the increase in system-wide sales was primarily driven by comparable sales of 10.6% and 10.3%, respectively, including Canada comparable sales of 10.8% and 11.3%, respectively, and net restaurant growth of 6.9%.”

8. E8 Restaurant Brands International Inc. Reports Full Year and Fourth Quarter 2016 Results Restaurant Brands International Inc. (RBI) via CNW · 13 February 2017

   “| Comparable Sales Growth (1) | | | 0.2% | | | 6.3% | | | 2.5% | | | 5.6% |”

The evidence gives Tim Hortons Canada comparable sales of 5.5% in 2015 (E6) and Tim Hortons comparable sales figures of 2.5%, 5.6% and 3.1% in a 10-K table row whose year columns are not shown in the quote (E5, E8). It gives no figures for 2010–2013, so the historical average is only partly established. In the 2019–2023 window, it shows Canada comparable sales of (16.5)% in 2020 (E2/E4), a rebound to 10.8% in 2021 (E7) and 10.9% in 2023 (E1/E3). There are no figures for 2019 or 2022, and nothing shows whether the 2023 growth was mainly inflation-driven. With only one non-pandemic year confirmed above the historical rate, the evidence cannot tell apart the true, mostly true and mostly false outcomes the criteria define.