ClaimsNate Silver

“However, on average, since our forecast relaunch on July 30, Harris has won 49.4 percent of simulations, and Trump has won 50.2 percent.”

Nate Silver, author of Silver Bulletin 8 October 2024 55/45 is a really close race (Silver Bulletin) archived copy

Factual Their own work or organisation

Since the Silver Bulletin forecast relaunch on July 30, 2024, Harris has won 49.4 percent of simulations on average and Trump 50.2 percent.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

True: Silver Bulletin data covering the period from the forecast relaunch on 2024-07-30 through about 2024-10-08 show average win shares of 49.4% for Harris and 50.2% for Trump. The subject's own published forecast data or model outputs count as evidence. Mostly true: both figures are within about 0.3 points of those stated. Mixed: one figure matches and the other is off by more. Mostly false: the figures are off by more than about 1 point but show the same near-even split. False: the averages differ substantially, or the averages put Harris ahead.

Set before the research began.

Reasoning

No evidence with a verified quote was found apart from the claim's own source, so the claim was not judged.

Cite this claim

Nate Silver, “Since the Silver Bulletin forecast relaunch on July 30, 2024, Harris has won 49.4 percent of simulations on average and Trump 50.2 percent.” (said 8 October 2024). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_8dcc0f851b64, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_8dcc0f851b64

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Nate Silver, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Nate Silver

  1. Resolved true Factual 7 November 2024
    “a Trump sweep of the swing states was actually our most common scenario, occurring in 20 percent of simulations.”

    In Silver Bulletin's final model, a Trump sweep of the seven swing states was the most common scenario, occurring in 20 percent of simulations.

  2. Resolved true Factual 13 August 2024
    “Part of why I've moved the model back to the newsletter, where the probabilities are paywalled, technically”

    Nate Silver has moved his election forecast model back to his Silver Bulletin newsletter, where the probabilities are technically paywalled.

  3. Mostly true Factual 11 September 2023
    “launching FiveThirtyEight was basically my fourth career after management consulting, professional poker, and baseball analytics.”

    Nate Silver said launching FiveThirtyEight was basically his fourth career, after management consulting, professional poker, and baseball analytics.

  4. Resolved true Factual 11 September 2023
    “I’ve turned on the option for paid subscriptions.”

    Nate Silver turned on paid subscriptions for the Silver Bulletin newsletter by 11 September 2023.

  5. Mostly true Factual 8 June 2021
    “Overall we were quite happy and the forecasts were largely accurate and well-calibrated despite a bad year for the polls.”

    The 2020 election forecasts by Nate Silver's team were largely accurate and well-calibrated despite a bad year for the polls.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.