Scott Alexander is testing Manifold Markets as a knowledge-generation device, using a market on how he will rank interventions in an updated Biodeterminists' Guide To Pregnancy.
Not researched Checkable, but outside the sample that was researched.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
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Scott Alexander, “Scott Alexander is testing Manifold Markets as a knowledge-generation device, using a market on how he will rank interventions in an updated Biodeterminists' Guide To Pregnancy.” (said 14 March 2022). Verdict: not researched. Reliability API, claim c_893dddd192e0, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_893dddd192e0
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
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More factual claims by Scott Alexander
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“Reader Nikita Sokolsky has completed his work getting some extra Fatima documents from Portugal and translating them into English.”
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“Things felt so fuzzy that I (partly) abandoned my usual clear-resolution probabilistic predictions for total guesses.”
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“Also last month, I suggested Manifold Markets have a loan feature to help boost investment in long-term markets.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.