Most answers in the paid Q&A threads on Silver Bulletin will be behind the paywall.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Promise: Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
The evidence is the person's or their organisation's own records.
What would count as true or false
The test covers the paid Q&A threads or posts (such as SBSQ) published in the year after 11 September 2023. True: in most of these threads, most of the answers (by count or length) sat behind the paywall. Mostly true: most of the answers were paywalled overall, but in a minority of threads most answers were free. Mixed: about half of the answers were paywalled overall. Mostly false: most answers were free, with only a minority paywalled. False: the answers were free in full, or almost so. If no such threads were held, the claim cannot be resolved on this test.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 SBSQ #1: Is Dallas on the Atlantic Coast? Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver's newsletter) · 23 September 2023 Own record
“The first question or two will be in front of the paywall and the rest will be behind the paywall.”
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E2 SBSQ #4: A review of The Sphere, and a Happy New Year Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver's newsletter) · 31 December 2023 Own record
“OK folks, we’re going to turn the paywall on for the rest of this month’s questions.”
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E3 SBSQ #5: The 5 types of people who argue on the Internet Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver's newsletter) · 31 January 2024 Own record
“At that point, I’ll begin paywalling more posts, although I intend for the majority of articles to remain free.”
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E4 SBSQ #12: Will the polls lowball Trump again? Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver's newsletter) · 31 August 2024 Own record
“Even for paid posts like this one, we work hard to provide some meaningful content before the paywall line so that we’re not clogging your inbox.”
Reasoning
The evidence shows a planned free-then-paywalled split in SBSQ #1 (E1) and a paywall switched on partway through SBSQ #4 (E2). It does not show how many answers were paywalled across the year's threads: E4 does not say where the paywall line fell, and E3 is about posts in general, so the share of paywalled answers the criteria ask about is not established.
Cite this claim
Nate Silver, “Most answers in the paid Q&A threads on Silver Bulletin will be behind the paywall.” (said 11 September 2023). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_8640fb455714, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_8640fb455714
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More promise claims by Nate Silver
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Delivered on time
“It will be at least a year before we have the official Silver Bulletin midterms forecast up.”
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Mostly false
“I’ll probably begin with college basketball Elo ratings just because those are pretty straightforward, with a goal of launching by the end of the year, if not sooner.”
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Mostly true
“Occasional2 paywalled posts on other topics that attract nerdy but enthusiastic audiences.”
Silver Bulletin will publish occasional paywalled posts on other topics for paid subscribers.
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Resolved true
“Periodic1 paid-subscriber-only Q&A threads, where I’ll answer reader questions from paid subscribers.”
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Delivered on time
“Midterms model coming soon; think one of the topline numbers might surprise people a bit.”
Nate Silver's midterms forecast model will be published soon.
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.