ClaimsScott Alexander

“After that, things go okay until the 95% level, where I get a very poorly calibrated 75%.”

Scott Alexander, blogger 22 January 2019 2018 Predictions: Calibration Results (Slate Star Codex) archived copy

Factual Their own work or organisation

At the 95% confidence level, Scott Alexander's 2018 predictions came out only 75% correct.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

True: Scott's own scoring of his 2018 predictions (the January 2019 calibration post) shows that 75% of the predictions he made at 95% confidence came true. Mostly true: the figure in that scoring is within about 2 percentage points of 75% (for example 73% to 77%), or the post's own wording differs only slightly. Mixed: the reported figure is clearly below 95% but well off 75% (more than 2 and up to 10 points away). Mostly false: the poor result was at a different confidence level, or the figure is more than 10 points from 75%. False: the post shows his 95% predictions were well calibrated (around 90% or more correct). Use the post's own tally, including any correction Scott published.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (1)

  1. E1 January 2019 – Slate Star Codex Slate Star Codex · 22 January 2019 Own record

    “Posted on January 22, 2019 by Scott Alexander”

Reasoning

The only evidence, E1, is the Slate Star Codex January 2019 archive page. Its quote shows only that a post by Scott Alexander went up on January 22, 2019. It gives no tally of his 2018 predictions and no share correct at the 95% confidence level. Because none of the evidence shows the scoring figure, the criteria cannot be applied.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “At the 95% confidence level, Scott Alexander's 2018 predictions came out only 75% correct.” (said 22 January 2019). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_82e733b3d452, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_82e733b3d452

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Scott Alexander, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Scott Alexander

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  2. Resolved true Factual 5 October 2026
    “Rob Ennals, who made this year’s book review contest site, has gathered the reviews from earlier years into epubs here.”

    Rob Ennals, who made this year's ACX book review contest site, has gathered reviews from earlier years into epubs.

  3. Resolved true Factual 10 December 2024
    “There’s a good interview with Skarbek in last month’s issue of Asterisk, I think it will be online shortly.”

    Last month's issue of Asterisk (November 2024) contains an interview with Skarbek, which Scott thinks will be online shortly.

  4. Resolved true Factual 20 February 2023
    “Things felt so fuzzy that I (partly) abandoned my usual clear-resolution probabilistic predictions for total guesses.”

    In 2018 Scott Alexander partly abandoned his usual clear-resolution probabilistic predictions for rough guesses in his five-year predictions.

  5. Resolved true Factual 14 March 2022
    “Also last month, I suggested Manifold Markets have a loan feature to help boost investment in long-term markets.”

    In February 2022 Scott Alexander suggested that Manifold Markets add a loan feature to boost investment in long-term markets.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.