Widespread Covid vaccinations that will end the pandemic in the US are only a few months away from November 2020.
Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
What would count as true or false
The claim has two parts: (1) widespread US Covid vaccination would arrive within a few months of 16 November 2020; (2) that vaccination would end the pandemic. Judge at about mid-2021. 'Widespread' means vaccines generally available to US adults, with a large share of the population (roughly a third or more) having received at least one dose, by about May–June 2021. 'End this' means the pandemic effectively ended in the US: a sustained collapse in cases and deaths and broad lifting of restrictions, without later major waves. TRUE: both parts held. MOSTLY TRUE: widespread vaccination arrived on time, and the pandemic largely subsided with only minor later resurgences. MIXED: widespread vaccination arrived within a few months, but the pandemic did not end; for example, major later waves (such as Delta or Omicron) caused large numbers of deaths and the public-health emergency continued. MOSTLY FALSE: vaccination became widespread only well after mid-2021, and the pandemic did not end. FALSE: no widespread vaccination occurred in that period.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
-
E1 Equitable allocation of COVID-19 vaccines in the United States - Nature Medicine Nature Medicine (Springer Nature) · 18 May 2021
“On 19 April 2021, all adult US residents became eligible to receive a COVID-19 vaccine; at this point, one quarter (87 million) of the US population was fully vaccinated; 46 million people required a second shot;”
-
E2 COVID-19 vaccination in the United States - Wikipedia Wikipedia
“By July 4, 2021, 67% of the United States' adult population had received at least one dose, just short of a goal of 70%.”
-
E3 COVID-19 vaccination in the United States - Wikipedia Wikipedia
“While vaccines have helped significantly reduce the number of new COVID-19 infections nationwide, states with below-average vaccination rates began to see increasing numbers of cases credited to the highly infectious Delta variant by July 2021, which led to an increased push by organizations and companies to begin imposing de facto mandates for their employees be vaccinated for COVID-19.”
-
E4 COVID-19 vaccination in the United States - Wikipedia Wikipedia (citing U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, HHS.gov)
“The federal Public Health Emergency for COVID‑19 expired on May 11, 2023.”
Reasoning
E1 shows that all US adults became eligible for a COVID-19 vaccine on 19 April 2021, about five months after the claim. E1 shows that all adult US residents became eligible for a COVID-19 vaccine on 19 April 2021, and E2 shows that 67% of US adults had received at least one dose by 4 July 2021, so vaccination had become widespread by around mid-2021. However, E3 shows that, although vaccines had significantly reduced new infections nationwide, states with below-average vaccination rates saw rising cases attributed to the Delta variant by July 2021, and E4 shows that the federal Public Health Emergency for COVID-19 expired only on 11 May 2023. Under the criteria, widespread vaccination arriving on time while the pandemic did not end resolves as mixed.
Cite this claim
Bill Ackman, “Widespread Covid vaccinations that will end the pandemic in the US are only a few months away from November 2020.” (said 16 November 2020). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_756b07265898, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_756b07265898
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Bill Ackman
-
Mixed
“In its land sales segment, the company is on track to generate nearly $300 million in full-year profits.”
-
Mixed
“The launch of Smoked Brisket for a limited time starting in September, one of the company's most requested menu items, should further improve trends.”
-
Mostly true
“We believe that UMG's underperformance this quarter will prove to be short-term in nature and does not impact our view of UMG's medium and long-term growth prospects.”
-
Resolved true
“Chipotle is on track to open approximately 300 new restaurants this year, and expects to more than double its store base to at least 7,000 locations in North America over time.”
-
Resolved true
“CPKC has made considerable progress on realizing revenue synergies despite a challenging freight environment, and now expects to exit 2024 with C$800 million of new business.”
CPKC expects to exit 2024 with C$800 million of new business from revenue synergies.
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.