ClaimsBill Ackman

“What makes this such a tragedy is that we are only a few months away from widespread vaccinations that will end this.”

Bill Ackman, X post 16 November 2020 Post by @BillAckman on X, 2020-11-16 (X)

Prediction Biosecurity

Widespread Covid vaccinations that will end the pandemic in the US are only a few months away from November 2020.

Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

What would count as true or false

The claim has two parts: (1) widespread US Covid vaccination would arrive within a few months of 16 November 2020; (2) that vaccination would end the pandemic. Judge at about mid-2021. 'Widespread' means vaccines generally available to US adults, with a large share of the population (roughly a third or more) having received at least one dose, by about May–June 2021. 'End this' means the pandemic effectively ended in the US: a sustained collapse in cases and deaths and broad lifting of restrictions, without later major waves. TRUE: both parts held. MOSTLY TRUE: widespread vaccination arrived on time, and the pandemic largely subsided with only minor later resurgences. MIXED: widespread vaccination arrived within a few months, but the pandemic did not end; for example, major later waves (such as Delta or Omicron) caused large numbers of deaths and the public-health emergency continued. MOSTLY FALSE: vaccination became widespread only well after mid-2021, and the pandemic did not end. FALSE: no widespread vaccination occurred in that period.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Equitable allocation of COVID-19 vaccines in the United States - Nature Medicine Nature Medicine (Springer Nature) · 18 May 2021

    “On 19 April 2021, all adult US residents became eligible to receive a COVID-19 vaccine; at this point, one quarter (87 million) of the US population was fully vaccinated; 46 million people required a second shot;”
  2. E2 COVID-19 vaccination in the United States - Wikipedia Wikipedia

    “By July 4, 2021, 67% of the United States' adult population had received at least one dose, just short of a goal of 70%.”
  3. E3 COVID-19 vaccination in the United States - Wikipedia Wikipedia

    “While vaccines have helped significantly reduce the number of new COVID-19 infections nationwide, states with below-average vaccination rates began to see increasing numbers of cases credited to the highly infectious Delta variant by July 2021, which led to an increased push by organizations and companies to begin imposing de facto mandates for their employees be vaccinated for COVID-19.”
  4. E4 COVID-19 vaccination in the United States - Wikipedia Wikipedia (citing U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, HHS.gov)

    “The federal Public Health Emergency for COVID‑19 expired on May 11, 2023.”

Reasoning

E1 shows that all US adults became eligible for a COVID-19 vaccine on 19 April 2021, about five months after the claim. E1 shows that all adult US residents became eligible for a COVID-19 vaccine on 19 April 2021, and E2 shows that 67% of US adults had received at least one dose by 4 July 2021, so vaccination had become widespread by around mid-2021. However, E3 shows that, although vaccines had significantly reduced new infections nationwide, states with below-average vaccination rates saw rising cases attributed to the Delta variant by July 2021, and E4 shows that the federal Public Health Emergency for COVID-19 expired only on 11 May 2023. Under the criteria, widespread vaccination arriving on time while the pandemic did not end resolves as mixed.

Cite this claim

Bill Ackman, “Widespread Covid vaccinations that will end the pandemic in the US are only a few months away from November 2020.” (said 16 November 2020). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_756b07265898, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_756b07265898

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.