ClaimsNate Silver

“will greatly reduce and perhaps even reverse the Electoral College bias.”

Nate Silver, author of Silver Bulletin 7 November 2024 The model exactly predicted the most likely election map (Silver Bulletin) archived copy

Prediction Other

Voters leaving deep blue states while Republicans gain surplus voters in Florida and Texas will greatly reduce and perhaps reverse the Electoral College bias favoring Republicans.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

Prediction has no time horizon and 'greatly reduce' is vague.

Cite this claim

Nate Silver, “Voters leaving deep blue states while Republicans gain surplus voters in Florida and Texas will greatly reduce and perhaps reverse the Electoral College bias favoring Republicans.” (said 7 November 2024). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_72be21a6a7d4, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_72be21a6a7d4

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Nate Silver, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Nate Silver

  1. Mostly false Prediction 8 September 2023
    “I’d argue that 1 (Biden winning) is more likely than 2 (Trump winning) which, in turn, is more likely than 3 (someone else winning).”

    Biden winning the 2024 presidential election is more likely than Trump winning, which is more likely than someone else winning.

  2. Mostly false Prediction 8 September 2023
    “If Trump does well in Iowa and New Hampshire — and there’s no snafu for Biden — they could become their party’s presumptive nominees as soon as February”

    If Trump does well in Iowa and New Hampshire and Biden has no snafu, Trump and Biden could become their parties' presumptive 2024 nominees as soon as February 2024.

  3. Resolved false Prediction 2015
    “Our emphatic prediction is simply that Trump will not win the nomination.”

    Donald Trump will not win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.

  4. Resolved false Prediction 2015
    “Nor, in all likelihood, could Trump win with a plurality of votes or delegates because the Republican Party, which controls the nomination process, would unite against him.”

    In all likelihood, Trump could not win the Republican nomination with only a plurality of votes or delegates, because the Republican Party would unite against him.

  5. Mixed Prediction 8 April 2025
    “Children's toys are gonna become much more expensive because they're made in countries like Vietnam in Southeast Asia that are heavily taraffed.”

    Children's toys will become much more expensive in the US because they are made in heavily tariffed countries such as Vietnam.

All of them

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