ClaimsScott Alexander

“Of 95% predictions, I got 6 right and 2 wrong, for a score of 75%”

Scott Alexander, blogger 22 January 2019 2018 Predictions: Calibration Results (Slate Star Codex) archived copy

Factual Their own work or organisation

Of his 2018 predictions at 95%, Scott Alexander got 6 right and 2 wrong, a score of 75%.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

Judged against Scott Alexander's January 2019 post grading his 2018 predictions, counting the predictions he made at 95% confidence and how each resolved. True: there were 8 such predictions, 6 right and 2 wrong (75%). Mostly true: the score is about 75% but one count is off by one, for example from a disputed grading. False: the counts are clearly different, for example 7 right and 1 wrong. Any correction he published to the grading governs.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (3)

  1. E1 Predictions For 2018 Slate Star Codex · 6 February 2018 Own record

    “1. Donald Trump remains president at end of year: 95%”

  2. E2 Predictions For 2018 Slate Star Codex · 6 February 2018 Own record

    “17. Bitcoin is higher than $5,000 at end of year: 95%”

  3. E3 Predictions For 2018 Slate Star Codex · 6 February 2018 Own record

    “98. [Secret prediction]: 95%”

Reasoning

E1–E3 come from the February 2018 post where the predictions were made. They show three of the predictions set at 95% (Trump remains president, Bitcoin above $5,000, and a secret prediction). None of the evidence is from the January 2019 grading post, and none says how many 95% predictions there were or how each one resolved. So the 6 right, 2 wrong (75%) tally cannot be checked against the resolution criteria.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Of his 2018 predictions at 95%, Scott Alexander got 6 right and 2 wrong, a score of 75%.” (said 22 January 2019). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_6ce9a881f67d, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_6ce9a881f67d

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Scott Alexander, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Scott Alexander

  1. Mostly true Factual 5 October 2026
    “Reader Nikita Sokolsky has completed his work getting some extra Fatima documents from Portugal and translating them into English.”

    Reader Nikita Sokolsky has finished obtaining extra Fatima documents from Portugal and translating them into English.

  2. Resolved true Factual 5 October 2026
    “Rob Ennals, who made this year’s book review contest site, has gathered the reviews from earlier years into epubs here.”

    Rob Ennals, who made this year's ACX book review contest site, has gathered reviews from earlier years into epubs.

  3. Resolved true Factual 10 December 2024
    “There’s a good interview with Skarbek in last month’s issue of Asterisk, I think it will be online shortly.”

    Last month's issue of Asterisk (November 2024) contains an interview with Skarbek, which Scott thinks will be online shortly.

  4. Resolved true Factual 20 February 2023
    “Things felt so fuzzy that I (partly) abandoned my usual clear-resolution probabilistic predictions for total guesses.”

    In 2018 Scott Alexander partly abandoned his usual clear-resolution probabilistic predictions for rough guesses in his five-year predictions.

  5. Resolved true Factual 14 March 2022
    “Also last month, I suggested Manifold Markets have a loan feature to help boost investment in long-term markets.”

    In February 2022 Scott Alexander suggested that Manifold Markets add a loan feature to boost investment in long-term markets.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.