ClaimsNate Silver

“The chances of a Trump win in the Electoral College are about even.”

Nate Silver, author of Silver Bulletin 9 October 2024 When you should panic about the polls (Silver Bulletin) archived copy

Prediction Science and research methods Political

Donald Trump's chance of winning the 2024 presidential election in the Electoral College is about even.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

This is a 50-50 forecast. Judge it on how close the certified 2024 Electoral College contest was, not on who won. True: the tipping-point state was decided by under about 2 percentage points. Mostly true: by 2–3 points. Mixed: by 3–5 points. Mostly false: by 5–7 points. False: by more than 7 points, which would show a lopsided race.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (3)

  1. E1 Pennsylvania, United States, presidential election 2024: result and count Global Election Index (citing FEC Official 2024 Presidential General Election Results) · 4 November 2026

    “Donald J. Trump received 3,543,308 of 7,058,732 votes and won 19 electoral votes.”

  2. E2 Wisconsin Elections Commission chair certifies Trump's 2024 victory in state Associated Press (republished by PBS Wisconsin) · 1 December 2024

    “Commission Chair Ann Jacobs certified results that show Trump won the state with 1,697,626 votes compared to Democrat Kamala Harris’ 1,668,229 votes during a morning Zoom teleconference that lasted six minutes.”

  3. E3 How big was Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory? 8 charts explain PolitiFact · 22 November 2024

    “Trump won all of this year’s seven battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.”

Reasoning

The evidence shows Trump won all seven battleground states (E3), won Wisconsin by under 1 point (E2) and got about 50.2% in Pennsylvania (E1). No item identifies the tipping-point state or gives its margin, as the criteria require.

Cite this claim

Nate Silver, “Donald Trump's chance of winning the 2024 presidential election in the Electoral College is about even.” (said 9 October 2024). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_614ba43925b7, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_614ba43925b7

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Nate Silver, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Nate Silver

  1. Mixed Prediction 8 April 2025
    “Children's toys are gonna become much more expensive because they're made in countries like Vietnam in Southeast Asia that are heavily taraffed.”

    Children's toys will become much more expensive in the US because they are made in heavily tariffed countries such as Vietnam.

  2. Mostly true Prediction 13 August 2024
    “I think people might understand with Kamala Harris that it's inherently a difficult circumstance and a little bit of a long shot bid, but that her chances are probably better than Biden.”

    Kamala Harris's bid is inherently difficult and a little bit of a long shot, but her chances of winning the 2024 presidential election are probably better than Joe Biden's were.

  3. Mixed Prediction 8 September 2023
    “Most voters aren’t paying attention yet, and it will be nine months to a year before they do.”

    Most US voters will not start paying attention to the 2024 presidential election until nine months to a year after September 2023.

  4. Mostly false Prediction 8 September 2023
    “I’d argue that 1 (Biden winning) is more likely than 2 (Trump winning) which, in turn, is more likely than 3 (someone else winning).”

    Biden winning the 2024 presidential election is more likely than Trump winning, which is more likely than someone else winning.

  5. Mostly false Prediction 8 September 2023
    “If Trump does well in Iowa and New Hampshire — and there’s no snafu for Biden — they could become their party’s presumptive nominees as soon as February”

    If Trump does well in Iowa and New Hampshire and Biden has no snafu, Trump and Biden could become their parties' presumptive 2024 nominees as soon as February 2024.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.