ClaimsRodney Brooks

“There may be yet another AI winter, and perhaps even a full scale tech winter, just around the corner.”

Rodney Brooks, blog author 1 January 2024 Predictions Scorecard, 2024 January 01 (rodneybrooks.com)

Prediction AI timelines and forecasting

There may be another AI winter, and perhaps a full-scale tech winter, just around the corner.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

'May be' and 'just around the corner' are hedged and undefined, with no clear horizon, so this can't be tested.

Cite this claim

Rodney Brooks, “There may be another AI winter, and perhaps a full-scale tech winter, just around the corner.” (said 1 January 2024). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_5eebcbe4e742, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_5eebcbe4e742

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Rodney Brooks, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Rodney Brooks

  1. Mostly false Prediction 1 January 2026
    “Things at this stage are looking good for Artemis to fly in February 2026.”

    The Artemis II crewed lunar flyby looks on track to fly in February 2026.

  2. Resolved true Prediction 1 January 2025
    “Launch seems imminent.”

    Rodney Brooks wrote on 2025-01-01 that New Glenn's launch seemed imminent.

  3. Resolved false Prediction 1 January 2024
    “Thereafter it is expected to fly with a crew once a year.”

    After its first crewed test flight in April 2024, Boeing's Starliner is expected to fly with a crew once a year.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 1 January 2023
    “I am concerned that Starship will not be ready for the proposed 2025 Lunar Landing of astronauts and that will really delay humankind’s return the to Moon.”

    Brooks said he was concerned that Starship would not be ready for the proposed 2025 crewed lunar landing, and that this would delay humankind's return to the Moon.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 1 January 2023
    “If electric sales continue to grow at 68% per year then 2025 would hit 28% of new cars in the US being electric.”

    If US electric vehicle sales keep growing at 68% per year, electric cars would be 28% of new US car sales in 2025.

All of them

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