FiveThirtyEight's models give Trump a 15 percent (polls-only) and 17 percent (polls-plus) chance, about twice the NYT Upshot's 8 percent.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Judged as of the date in 2016 when the statement was published. True if, on that date, FiveThirtyEight's polls-only model gave Trump about 15% and its polls-plus model about 17% (each within 1 point), and the NYT Upshot's model at the same time gave Trump about 8% (7–9%), so that FiveThirtyEight's figures were roughly double. Mostly true if all three figures are within 2 points of those stated and the 'about twice' comparison still roughly holds. Mixed if the FiveThirtyEight figures are correct but the Upshot figure is materially different (so the 'twice' comparison fails), or the reverse. Mostly false if the figures differ by more than 2 points but the general direction (FiveThirtyEight rating Trump higher than the Upshot) holds. False if FiveThirtyEight did not rate Trump higher than the Upshot at that time, or the figures are wrong outright.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
-
E1 Rethinking probabilistic prediction in the wake of the 2016 U.S. presidential election arXiv (ar5iv rendering)
“Perhaps Silver interpreted the estimated 83%/17% Clinton/Trump probabilities (at that time) in terms of betting odds, making Clinton roughly a 5-to-1 favorite to win.”
-
E2 Rethinking probabilistic prediction in the wake of the 2016 U.S. presidential election arXiv (ar5iv rendering)
“contrast Silver’s prediction that Clinton will “probably” win based on probability 83% on October 24th to his prediction that she will “most likely” win based on probability 72% on November 8”
-
E3 Polls: Clinton Leads Trump Ahead of Final Debate Newsweek · 19 October 2016
“The New York Times election forecast now says Clinton has a 92 percent chance of winning the presidency; that's up 10 percent from just a week and a half ago”
-
E4 Polls: Clinton Leads Trump Ahead of Final Debate Newsweek · 19 October 2016
“FiveThirtyEight is now saying Hillary Clinton has an 87 percent chance to win, up from 82 percent ahead of the last debate.”
Reasoning
The evidence gives the NYT forecast's Clinton chance as 92% and FiveThirtyEight's as 87% on October 19 [E3][E4], and FiveThirtyEight's 83%/17% on October 24 [E1][E2]. Nothing in the material says what date in 2016 the claim was made or confirms the 15% polls-only figure, so the figures cannot be matched to the claim's date as the criteria require.
Cite this claim
Nate Silver, “FiveThirtyEight's models give Trump a 15 percent (polls-only) and 17 percent (polls-plus) chance, about twice the NYT Upshot's 8 percent.” (said 2016). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_5e6859a71245, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_5e6859a71245
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Nate Silver
-
Mostly true
“The previous Quinnipiac polls of these states had been quite a bit better for Harris.”
-
Resolved true
“Although John McCain had periods of strong polling in 2008, especially after the Republican Convention, in the end Barack Obama won in a landslide that didn’t justify Democrats’ constant anxieties.”
-
Resolved true
“The recognition that the election is only four weeks away.”
As of early October 2024, the US presidential election is about four weeks away.
-
Resolved true
“And yet, there are dozens of polls released every week.”
-
Mostly true
“This property is even more profound in baseball, where single-run leads are relatively durable because runs tend to come in bunches and the default outcome is not to score at all.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.