In 2012, Obama beat his polling by 2 or 3 percentage points in almost every swing state.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Compare Obama's 2012 certified margin in each commonly defined swing state (e.g., CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, NC, OH, VA, WI, PA, MI) with his final polling-average margin (e.g., FiveThirtyEight, RCP or comparable averages). True: in nearly all swing states (all but one or two) Obama beat his polling margin by roughly 2–3 points (about 1.5–3.5 counts). Mostly true: he beat his polls in nearly all swing states but the typical size was somewhat off (e.g., about 1–2 or 3–4 points on average), or a few more states fall outside the range. Mixed: he beat his polls in most swing states but the size varied widely, with only about half in the 2–3-point range. Mostly false: he outperformed his polls only in some swing states, or by much smaller amounts (under ~1 point typically). False: Obama generally matched or underperformed his swing-state polling.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (11)
-
E1 Battleground State Polls | RealClearPolling RealClearPolling
“| Final Results | — | — | — | 50.0 | 49.1 | Obama+0.9 | | RCP Average | 10/30 - 11/5 | — | — | 48.2 | 49.7 | Romney+1.5 |”
-
E2 Battleground State Polls | RealClearPolling RealClearPolling
“| Final Results | — | — | — | 52.0 | 46.6 | Obama+5.4 | | RCP Average | 10/23 - 11/4 | — | — | 49.4 | 45.6 | Obama+3.8 |”
-
E3 Battleground State Polls | RealClearPolling RealClearPolling
“| Final Results | — | — | — | 51.2 | 47.3 | Obama+3.9 | | RCP Average | 10/22 - 11/4 | — | — | 48.0 | 47.7 | Obama+0.3 |”
-
E4 VOTAMATIC | Forecasts and Polling Analysis for the 2012 Presidential Election votamatic.org (Drew Linzer) · 9 November 2012
“Interestingly, in most of the battleground states, Obama did indeed outperform the polls; suggesting that”
-
E5 Battleground State Polls | RealClearPolling RealClearPolling
“| Final Results | — | — | — | 50.0 | 49.1 | Obama+0.9 | | RCP Average | 10/30 - 11/5 | — | — | 48.2 | 49.7 | Romney+1.5 |”
-
E6 Battleground State Polls | RealClearPolling RealClearPolling
“| Final Results | — | — | — | 51.2 | 47.3 | Obama+3.9 | | RCP Average | 10/22 - 11/4 | — | — | 48.0 | 47.7 | Obama+0.3 |”
-
E7 Battleground State Polls | RealClearPolling RealClearPolling
“| Final Results | — | — | — | 51.5 | 46.1 | Obama+5.4 | | RCP Average | 10/25 - 11/4 | — | — | 48.8 | 47.3 | Obama+1.5 |”
-
E8 United States 2012 welections (WordPress blog) · 26 November 2012
“RealClearPolitics (RCP) had him up 1.7 in Colorado (won by 5.5), down 1.5 in Florida (won by 0.9), up 2.4 in Iowa (won by 5.8), up 4 in Michigan (won by 9.5), up 2.8 in Nevada (won by 6.6),”
-
E9 United States 2012 welections (WordPress blog) · 26 November 2012
“The only state where Obama did not outperform his polling was in Ohio – yes, Ohio. RCP had him up by 2.9 in Ohio, but he only won the state by 2.”
-
E10 REPORT ON THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OF 6 NOVEMBER 2012 Adrian Beaumont (hosted on The Green Papers) · 4 January 2013
“Obama performed as expected given his polling in Ohio, but outperformed his polling elsewhere,”
-
E11 What if the polls are wrong again? Silver Bulletin (natesilver.net) · 3 October 2026 Own record
“He also beat his state-by-state polling averages by around 3 points, with his final margins improving upon the RCP averages in all 11 states.”
Reasoning
RCP final averages compared with results show Obama beat his polling margin in Florida by about 2.4 points (E2, consistent with E9), and in three other battleground rows on the same page, which the quoted rows do not name, by about 1.6 (E3), 3.6 (E4) and 3.9 points (E8). A post-election blog shows similar gaps in Iowa (3.4), Nevada (3.8) and Michigan (5.5), with Ohio the only swing state where he did not beat his polling (E9, E10). A separate outside report also says Ohio was the exception (E11), and another analyst says he outperformed the polls in most battleground states (E5). He beat his polls in nearly every swing state except Ohio (E10, E11), but several gaps were above the 2–3 point range, for example Michigan at about 5.5 points and Colorado and Nevada at about 3.8 (E9). This fits "mostly true" under the criteria.
Cite this claim
Nate Silver, “In 2012, Obama beat his polling by 2 or 3 percentage points in almost every swing state.” (said 2016). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_53cbb0810a59, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_53cbb0810a59
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Nate Silver
-
Mostly true
“The previous Quinnipiac polls of these states had been quite a bit better for Harris.”
-
Resolved true
“Although John McCain had periods of strong polling in 2008, especially after the Republican Convention, in the end Barack Obama won in a landslide that didn’t justify Democrats’ constant anxieties.”
-
Resolved true
“The recognition that the election is only four weeks away.”
As of early October 2024, the US presidential election is about four weeks away.
-
Resolved true
“And yet, there are dozens of polls released every week.”
-
Mostly true
“This property is even more profound in baseball, where single-run leads are relatively durable because runs tend to come in bunches and the default outcome is not to score at all.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.