ClaimsScott Alexander

“Most content is free, some is subscriber only; you can subscribe here.”

Scott Alexander, ACX author 5 October 2026 Open Thread 454 (Astral Codex Ten) archived copy

Factual Their own work or organisation

Most Astral Codex Ten content is free and some is subscriber-only.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

Judged as of 2026-10-05. True: on that date, the Astral Codex Ten Substack had both free and paid-subscriber-only posts, and free posts were the majority of posts (by count, over the blog's archive or a recent representative period). Mostly true: both kinds existed and free posts were the majority, but a minor detail differs (for example, the paywalled share was larger than 'some' implies but still under half). Mixed: free and paywalled posts were roughly equal in number, so 'most' is doubtful. Mostly false: paywalled content existed but free content was clearly not the majority, or else no content was subscriber-only. False: the blog had no free content, or it had no paid subscription tier.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (6)

  1. E1 About - Astral Codex Ten Astral Codex Ten (Substack) · 30 August 2020 Own record

    “In order to encourage people to subscribe, there will be some less important content reserved for paid members only, including extra open threads, AMAs with me, some rough drafts, and maybe a few shorter or sillier posts.”

  2. E2 Subscrive Drive 2024 + Free Unlocked Posts Astral Codex Ten (Substack) · 18 January 2024 Own record

    “Last year I wrote fourteen subscriber-only articles:”

  3. E3 Subscrive Drive 2024 + Free Unlocked Posts Astral Codex Ten (Substack) · 18 January 2024 Own record

    “Astral Codex Ten has a paid subscription option.”

  4. E4 2023 Subscription Drive + Free Unlocked Posts Astral Codex Ten (Scott Alexander) · 13 January 2023 Own record

    “Here’s a sample of some of last year’s subscriber-only posts, which I’ve unlocked for now to pique your interest:”

  5. E5 2023 Subscription Drive + Free Unlocked Posts Astral Codex Ten (Scott Alexander) · 13 January 2023 Own record

    “And here are the titles of the other, still-locked subscriber-only posts from last year:”

  6. E6 Substack Astral Codex Ten Archive · Apify Apify (task by ActorFlow) · 27 September 2026

    “Include paywalled posts:true”

Reasoning

An independent scraper page dated 2026-09-27 has a setting to include paywalled posts from the Astral Codex Ten archive (E7). That suggests subscriber-only posts existed near the judgment date, but it gives no count of free versus paid posts. The author's own pages say there is a paid option, that some less important content is paid-only, and that there were fourteen subscriber-only articles in one year (E2, E3, E4, E5, E6). None of the evidence gives a total post count, so it does not show that free posts were the majority on 2026-10-05. The 'most' part of the claim therefore rests only on the subject's own statements and cannot be settled.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Most Astral Codex Ten content is free and some is subscriber-only.” (said 5 October 2026). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_5150cb07c059, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_5150cb07c059

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Scott Alexander, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Scott Alexander

  1. Mostly true Factual 5 October 2026
    “Reader Nikita Sokolsky has completed his work getting some extra Fatima documents from Portugal and translating them into English.”

    Reader Nikita Sokolsky has finished obtaining extra Fatima documents from Portugal and translating them into English.

  2. Resolved true Factual 5 October 2026
    “Rob Ennals, who made this year’s book review contest site, has gathered the reviews from earlier years into epubs here.”

    Rob Ennals, who made this year's ACX book review contest site, has gathered reviews from earlier years into epubs.

  3. Resolved true Factual 10 December 2024
    “There’s a good interview with Skarbek in last month’s issue of Asterisk, I think it will be online shortly.”

    Last month's issue of Asterisk (November 2024) contains an interview with Skarbek, which Scott thinks will be online shortly.

  4. Resolved true Factual 20 February 2023
    “Things felt so fuzzy that I (partly) abandoned my usual clear-resolution probabilistic predictions for total guesses.”

    In 2018 Scott Alexander partly abandoned his usual clear-resolution probabilistic predictions for rough guesses in his five-year predictions.

  5. Resolved true Factual 14 March 2022
    “Also last month, I suggested Manifold Markets have a loan feature to help boost investment in long-term markets.”

    In February 2022 Scott Alexander suggested that Manifold Markets add a loan feature to boost investment in long-term markets.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.