ClaimsScott Alexander

“which asks you to predict how I would answer the first survey (so I can separate out worldview differences from weight-choosing random noise).”

Scott Alexander, ACX author 19 October 2026 Open Thread 456 (Astral Codex Ten) archived copy

Factual Their own work or organisation

An alternate survey asks respondents to predict how Scott Alexander would answer the first survey, to separate worldview differences from random noise.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

TRUE: an Astral Codex Ten post from around 19 October 2026 links an alternate survey that asks respondents to predict how Scott Alexander would answer the first survey, and states the purpose as separating worldview differences from noise in how people choose weights. MOSTLY TRUE: the alternate survey exists and asks for predictions of his answers, but its stated purpose is described somewhat differently. MIXED: an alternate survey exists, but only part of it asks respondents to predict his answers. MOSTLY FALSE: an alternate survey exists, but it does not ask respondents to predict his answers. FALSE: the post and surveys show no such alternate survey.

Set before the research began.

Reasoning

No evidence with a verified quote was found apart from the claim's own source, so the claim was not judged.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “An alternate survey asks respondents to predict how Scott Alexander would answer the first survey, to separate worldview differences from random noise.” (said 19 October 2026). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_5142db7cbdfb, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_5142db7cbdfb

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Scott Alexander, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Scott Alexander

  1. Mostly true Factual 5 October 2026
    “Reader Nikita Sokolsky has completed his work getting some extra Fatima documents from Portugal and translating them into English.”

    Reader Nikita Sokolsky has finished obtaining extra Fatima documents from Portugal and translating them into English.

  2. Resolved true Factual 5 October 2026
    “Rob Ennals, who made this year’s book review contest site, has gathered the reviews from earlier years into epubs here.”

    Rob Ennals, who made this year's ACX book review contest site, has gathered reviews from earlier years into epubs.

  3. Resolved true Factual 10 December 2024
    “There’s a good interview with Skarbek in last month’s issue of Asterisk, I think it will be online shortly.”

    Last month's issue of Asterisk (November 2024) contains an interview with Skarbek, which Scott thinks will be online shortly.

  4. Resolved true Factual 20 February 2023
    “Things felt so fuzzy that I (partly) abandoned my usual clear-resolution probabilistic predictions for total guesses.”

    In 2018 Scott Alexander partly abandoned his usual clear-resolution probabilistic predictions for rough guesses in his five-year predictions.

  5. Resolved true Factual 14 March 2022
    “Also last month, I suggested Manifold Markets have a loan feature to help boost investment in long-term markets.”

    In February 2022 Scott Alexander suggested that Manifold Markets add a loan feature to boost investment in long-term markets.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.