Ackman said he and his firm did not think any investor of consequence in the world would invest in the new version of Fannie and Freddie, likely referring to the Crapo-Johnson bill.

The prediction concerns the restructured Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac system proposed in the 2014 Crapo-Johnson (Johnson-Crapo) housing finance reform bill. It can only be tested if that bill, or its new entities, was enacted and put in place. TRUE: the structure was put in place and no significant institutional investors invested in the new entities. MOSTLY FALSE: it was put in place and only marginal or small investors invested. FALSE: it was put in place and major institutional investors invested in the new entities. If the bill was never enacted, the new version of Fannie and Freddie never existed. The prediction is then untestable and should be recorded as unresolvable, not true. Investor behaviour toward the existing GSEs, or toward later unrelated reform plans, does not count.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Legislative Approaches to Housing Finance Reform Milken Institute (working paper by David Scharfstein and Phillip Swagel) · October 2016

   “it never received a vote on the floor of the Senate. Nor did the Hensarling bill receive a vote in the full House of Representatives, and neither became law.”

2. E2 Legislative Approaches to Housing Finance Reform Milken Institute (working paper by David Scharfstein and Phillip Swagel) · October 2016

   “a complete housing finance reform bill has not received further Congressional consideration since May 2014.”

3. E3 Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Housing Finance Reform (2019 Advocates' Guide) National Low Income Housing Coalition · 2019

   “There was considerable legislative activity on housing finance reform in the 113th Congress (2013-2014), even though no legislation was considered by either the full House or Senate.”

4. E4 Meeting America's Affordable Housing Needs Requires GSE Reform, and More Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies · 8 July 2019

   “I helped move a bipartisan reform bill (commonly referred to as Johnson-Crapo) out of the Senate Banking Committee in 2014 but failed to garner a large enough bipartisan majority to move it to the floor for a full Senate vote.”

5. E5 Legislative Approaches to Housing Finance Reform Milken Institute (working paper by David Scharfstein and Phillip Swagel) · October 2016

   “The Johnson-Crapo bill received a positive vote in the Senate Banking Committee on May 15, 2014, with seven Republicans and six Democrats in support and three Republicans and six Democrats opposed”

6. E6 Legislative Approaches to Housing Finance Reform Milken Institute (working paper by David Scharfstein and Phillip Swagel) · October 2016

   “Nor did the Hensarling bill receive a vote in the full House of Representatives, and neither became law.”

7. E7 Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Housing Finance Reform (2019 Advocates' Guide) National Low Income Housing Coalition · 2019

   “But the bill was criticized by the right and the left for doing too much or not enough to assure access to mortgages to all creditworthy borrowers, and was never taken up by the full Senate.”

8. E8 Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Housing Finance Reform (2019 Advocates' Guide) National Low Income Housing Coalition · 2019

   “Much to the dismay of many, the companies remain under the control of the federal government because Congress cannot agree on the future housing finance system.”

9. E9 Building on the Johnson-Crapo Consensus Bipartisan Policy Center · 3 August 2016

   “While the legislation was voted out of the Senate Banking Committee by a bipartisan majority in May 2014, it was never considered by the full Senate.”

10. E10 Housing Issues in the 113th Congress Congressional Research Service · 15 April 2015

    “Both bills were ordered to be reported out of their respective committees, but neither was considered by the full House or Senate.”

Independent sources show the Johnson-Crapo bill was passed by the Senate Banking Committee in May 2014 but was never considered by the full Senate and never became law (E1, E4, E5, E6, E7, E9, E10). A 2019 source says Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac remain under federal government control (E8). The criteria say that if the bill was never enacted, the new entities never existed and the prediction cannot be tested, so it is recorded as unresolvable.