ClaimsRodney Brooks

“This could happen on a case by case basis in not too many years, but I think it will be a long time before it gets close to being universally deployed as a means of delivery.”

Rodney Brooks, blog author 12 January 2017 Unexpected Consequences of Self Driving Cars (rodneybrooks.com) archived copy

Prediction AI timelines and forecasting

Autonomous delivery vehicles may be deployed case by case in not too many years, but it will be a long time before they are close to universal as a means of delivery.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

Hedged, vague timeframes ('not too many years', 'long time') are undefined.

Cite this claim

Rodney Brooks, “Autonomous delivery vehicles may be deployed case by case in not too many years, but it will be a long time before they are close to universal as a means of delivery.” (said 12 January 2017). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_486c9e4fc0c1, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_486c9e4fc0c1

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Rodney Brooks, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Rodney Brooks

  1. Mostly false Prediction 1 January 2026
    “Things at this stage are looking good for Artemis to fly in February 2026.”

    The Artemis II crewed lunar flyby looks on track to fly in February 2026.

  2. Resolved true Prediction 1 January 2025
    “Launch seems imminent.”

    Rodney Brooks wrote on 2025-01-01 that New Glenn's launch seemed imminent.

  3. Resolved false Prediction 1 January 2024
    “Thereafter it is expected to fly with a crew once a year.”

    After its first crewed test flight in April 2024, Boeing's Starliner is expected to fly with a crew once a year.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 1 January 2023
    “I am concerned that Starship will not be ready for the proposed 2025 Lunar Landing of astronauts and that will really delay humankind’s return the to Moon.”

    Brooks said he was concerned that Starship would not be ready for the proposed 2025 crewed lunar landing, and that this would delay humankind's return to the Moon.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 1 January 2023
    “If electric sales continue to grow at 68% per year then 2025 would hit 28% of new cars in the US being electric.”

    If US electric vehicle sales keep growing at 68% per year, electric cars would be 28% of new US car sales in 2025.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.