ClaimsBill Gates

“The climate getting worse means that many years, their crops won’t grow:”

Bill Gates, TED speaker 2010 Innovating to Zero (TED 2010) transcript (Singju Post) archived copy

Prediction Other global risks

Worsening climate will mean that in many years the crops of the world's poorest people will fail to grow.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

Vague 'many years' prediction with no horizon.

Cite this claim

Bill Gates, “Worsening climate will mean that in many years the crops of the world's poorest people will fail to grow.” (said 2010). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_448a4e904e3d, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_448a4e904e3d

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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More prediction claims by Bill Gates

  1. Resolved true Prediction 4 February 2025
    “The climate work, there’ll be some policy things that are less favorable.”

    Some government policies affecting climate work will become less favorable than before.

  2. Mixed Prediction February 2021
    “We believe these new tools will soon begin bending the curve in a big way.”

    New COVID-19 tests, treatments and vaccines will soon begin to bend the pandemic curve substantially.

  3. Mostly false Prediction 2015
    “Guinea worm, an incredibly painful disease whose sufferers spend months incapacitated while worms that can be several feet long burst out of their legs, will also be gone soon, thanks in large part…”

    Guinea worm disease will be eradicated soon, thanks largely to President Jimmy Carter and the Carter Center.

  4. Mostly false Prediction 2015
    “We can get polio out of Africa this year and out of every country in the world in the next several years.”

    Polio can be eliminated from Africa in 2015 and from every country in the world within several years.

  5. Mostly true Prediction 2015
    “If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it's most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war.”

    If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it will most likely be a highly infectious virus rather than a war.

All of them

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