ClaimsBill Gates

“We can get polio out of Africa this year and out of every country in the world in the next several years.”

Bill and Melinda Gates, joint letter 2015 Bill and Melinda Gates, Annual Letter 2015 (Gates Notes) archived copy

Prediction Biosecurity

Polio can be eliminated from Africa in 2015 and from every country in the world within several years.

Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

What would count as true or false

This claim has two parts. Part A, judged at 2015-12-31: wild poliovirus transmission ended in Africa during 2015, with no wild polio cases detected in Africa in 2015 or afterward that show transmission continued. Part B: wild poliovirus was eradicated from every country, with zero wild cases worldwide, within 'several years', read as by 2020-12-31. True: both parts held. Mostly true: both held, with a minor slip, such as Part B being met for wild poliovirus while circulating vaccine-derived polio cases persisted. Mixed: exactly one part held. Mostly false: neither part fully held, but there was clear partial progress, such as Africa free of wild polio but only after 2015, or wild polio confined to one or two countries by 2020. False: wild polio continued circulating in Africa past 2015, and in multiple countries worldwide past 2020, with no near-achievement of either part.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Africa eradicates wild poliovirus WHO Regional Office for Africa · 25 August 2020

    “The independent Africa Regional Certification Commission (ARCC) for Polio Eradication officially declared on Tuesday that the World Health Organization (WHO) African Region is free of wild poliovirus.”

  2. E2 Government of Nigeria reports 2 wild polio cases, first since July 2014 World Health Organization · 11 August 2016

    “After more than two years without wild poliovirus in Nigeria, the Government reported today that 2 children have been paralyzed by the disease in the northern Borno state.”

  3. E3 ANNUAL REPORT 2015 World Health Organization on behalf of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative · 2016

    “August 2015 marked one year without any WPV across the entire African continent (the most recent case occurred in Somalia).”

  4. E4 Statement of the Twenty-Sixth Polio IHR Emergency Committee World Health Organization · 22 October 2020

    “The higher incidence of global WPV1 cases seen during 2020 continues, with 121 cases reported between 1 January – 5 October 2020 compared to 85 for the same period in 2019, a 42% increase.”

Reasoning

E3 reports that by August 2015 Africa had gone a full year without wild poliovirus. However, E2 reports that Nigeria found two wild polio cases in 2016, so wild polio cases were detected in Africa after 2015 and Part A did not hold. E1 shows the WHO African Region was certified free of wild poliovirus only in August 2020, and E4 reports 121 wild type 1 cases worldwide between 1 January and 5 October 2020, so Part B also failed. Neither part held, but Africa did become free of wild polio after 2015, which the criteria list as partial progress for a mostly false verdict.

Cite this claim

Bill Gates, “Polio can be eliminated from Africa in 2015 and from every country in the world within several years.” (said 2015). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_6dd314933bf7, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_6dd314933bf7

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Bill Gates, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Bill Gates

  1. Mixed Prediction February 2021
    “We believe these new tools will soon begin bending the curve in a big way.”

    New COVID-19 tests, treatments and vaccines will soon begin to bend the pandemic curve substantially.

  2. Mostly false Prediction 2015
    “Guinea worm, an incredibly painful disease whose sufferers spend months incapacitated while worms that can be several feet long burst out of their legs, will also be gone soon, thanks in large part…”

    Guinea worm disease will be eradicated soon, thanks largely to President Jimmy Carter and the Carter Center.

  3. Mostly true Prediction 2015
    “If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it's most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war.”

    If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it will most likely be a highly infectious virus rather than a war.

  4. Resolved true Prediction 2015
    “And you can see there's over 30 million people die from that epidemic.”

    In the epidemic shown, which would spread throughout the world very quickly, over 30 million people die.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 4 February 2025
    “The climate work, there’ll be some policy things that are less favorable.”

    Some government policies affecting climate work will become less favorable than before.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.