ClaimsBill Gates

“Guinea worm, an incredibly painful disease whose sufferers spend months incapacitated while worms that can be several feet long burst out of their legs, will also be gone soon, thanks in large part to the leadership of President Jimmy Carter and the Carter Center.”

Bill and Melinda Gates, joint letter 2015 Bill and Melinda Gates, Annual Letter 2015 (Gates Notes) archived copy

Prediction Biosecurity

Guinea worm disease will be eradicated soon, thanks largely to President Jimmy Carter and the Carter Center.

Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

What would count as true or false

'Soon' is read as within about five years of the 2015 statement, giving a horizon of 2020-12-31. True: by that date the WHO certified guinea worm (dracunculiasis) eradication, or zero human and animal cases were reported worldwide, and the Carter Center is credited with a leading role in the effort. Mostly true: zero human cases were reported by the horizon but certification or the elimination of animal infections was still pending, or eradication was achieved with a minor discrepancy in attribution. Mostly false: cases fell to very low levels (for example dozens of human cases a year) but the disease was not eradicated by the horizon, or eradication came only after 2020. False: the disease was not near eradication by the horizon, with hundreds of cases or more, or there was a resurgence. The attribution to Carter and the Carter Center is secondary and lowers the verdict by at most one step if it proves unfounded.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Dracunculiasis eradication: global surveillance summary, 2020 World Health Organization (Weekly Epidemiological Record) · 28 May 2021

    “In 2020, 6 countries reported a total of 27 human cases of dracunculiasis, namely, Angola (1 case), Cameroon (1 case) Chad (12 cases), Ethiopia (11), Mali (1) and South Sudan (1 case), in a total of 19 villages.”

  2. E2 Dracunculiasis eradication: global surveillance summary, 2020 World Health Organization (Weekly Epidemiological Record) · 28 May 2021

    “Seven countries remain to be certified: Angola, Chad, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Mali, South Sudan and Sudan.”

  3. E3 Number of reported indigenous dracunculiasis cases in humans and infections in animals, by country — worldwide, January 2019–June 2021 CDC, MMWR (Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report), vol. 70, no. 44, co-authored with The Carter Center and WHO collaborating centre · 5 November 2021

    “Animal infections have now overtaken human cases, with 1,601 reported animal infections in 2020”

  4. E4 Annual Report 2019 - Health Programs The Carter Center · 1 January 2025

    “The Carter Center reported just 54 human cases in 2019, along with 1,994 infections in animals, mostly dogs in Chad.”

Reasoning

WHO's 2020 surveillance summary reports 27 human dracunculiasis cases across six countries in 2020 (E1), and says seven countries still had to be certified (E2). A CDC MMWR report records 1,601 animal infections in 2020 and says animal infections had overtaken human cases (E3). The disease therefore fell to dozens of human cases a year but was not eradicated by the 2020-12-31 horizon. Under the criteria, that is mostly false.

Cite this claim

Bill Gates, “Guinea worm disease will be eradicated soon, thanks largely to President Jimmy Carter and the Carter Center.” (said 2015). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_140d8fd896b4, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_140d8fd896b4

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Bill Gates, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Bill Gates

  1. Mixed Prediction February 2021
    “We believe these new tools will soon begin bending the curve in a big way.”

    New COVID-19 tests, treatments and vaccines will soon begin to bend the pandemic curve substantially.

  2. Mostly false Prediction 2015
    “We can get polio out of Africa this year and out of every country in the world in the next several years.”

    Polio can be eliminated from Africa in 2015 and from every country in the world within several years.

  3. Mostly true Prediction 2015
    “If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it's most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war.”

    If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it will most likely be a highly infectious virus rather than a war.

  4. Resolved true Prediction 2015
    “And you can see there's over 30 million people die from that epidemic.”

    In the epidemic shown, which would spread throughout the world very quickly, over 30 million people die.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 4 February 2025
    “The climate work, there’ll be some policy things that are less favorable.”

    Some government policies affecting climate work will become less favorable than before.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.