ClaimsBill Gates

“We believe these new tools will soon begin bending the curve in a big way.”

Bill and Melinda Gates, co-authors of annual letter February 2021 2020 was the year global health went local (2021 Annual Letter) (Gates Notes) archived copy

Prediction Biosecurity

New COVID-19 tests, treatments and vaccines will soon begin to bend the pandemic curve substantially.

Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

'Soon' is read as within the rest of 2021, giving a horizon of 2021-12-31. True: in 2021, global COVID-19 deaths and severe outcomes declined substantially and in a sustained way from their early-2021 peak, and authoritative analyses credit vaccines, treatments and testing as major contributors. Mostly true: a substantial decline attributed to the new tools occurred in many countries, especially high-vaccination ones, but it was interrupted by later waves or was uneven globally. Mixed: the new tools clearly reduced deaths where they were deployed, but global case and death curves did not bend substantially within the period. Mostly false: improvement was marginal or short-lived, and attribution to the tools was weak. False: global deaths and cases rose or stayed at peak levels through the horizon, with no meaningful effect from the new tools.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Global impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination: a mathematical modelling study PubMed Central (academic journal article, mathematical modelling study) · 1 January 2022

    “Based on official reported COVID-19 deaths, we estimated that vaccinations prevented 14·4 million (95% credible interval [Crl] 13·7–15·9) deaths from COVID-19 in 185 countries and territories between Dec 8, 2020, and Dec 8, 2021.”

  2. E2 Weekly epidemiological update on COVID-19 - 27 July 2021 World Health Organization · 27 July 2021

    “The global number of new cases reported last week (19-25 July 2021) was over 3.8 million, an 8% increase as compared to the previous week.”

  3. E3 [PDF] COVID-19 Weekly Epidemiological Update World Health Organization

    “New deaths continue to increase for the seventh consecutive week, with over 93 000 deaths.”

  4. E4 Global excess deaths associated with COVID-19, January 2020 - December 2021 World Health Organization · May 2022

    “The global excess mortality associated with COVID-19 was 14.91 million in the 24 months between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2021, representing 9.49 million more deaths than those globally reported as directly attributable to COVID-19.”

Reasoning

E1, a modelling study independent of the subject, estimates that vaccination prevented 14.4 million COVID-19 deaths in 185 countries between December 2020 and December 2021. That shows the new tools clearly reduced deaths where they were used. But WHO updates show global deaths rising for seven straight weeks in spring 2021 (E3) and weekly cases still rising in late July 2021 (E2). WHO also estimates 14.91 million global excess deaths associated with COVID-19 from January 2020 to December 2021, a period that includes 2020 (E4). That fits the criteria's "mixed" category: the tools had a clear effect, but the evidence does not show a substantial, sustained bend in the global curve within 2021.

Cite this claim

Bill Gates, “New COVID-19 tests, treatments and vaccines will soon begin to bend the pandemic curve substantially.” (said February 2021). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_0c2afd2617d3, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_0c2afd2617d3

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Bill Gates, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Bill Gates

  1. Mostly false Prediction 2015
    “Guinea worm, an incredibly painful disease whose sufferers spend months incapacitated while worms that can be several feet long burst out of their legs, will also be gone soon, thanks in large part…”

    Guinea worm disease will be eradicated soon, thanks largely to President Jimmy Carter and the Carter Center.

  2. Mostly false Prediction 2015
    “We can get polio out of Africa this year and out of every country in the world in the next several years.”

    Polio can be eliminated from Africa in 2015 and from every country in the world within several years.

  3. Mostly true Prediction 2015
    “If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it's most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war.”

    If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it will most likely be a highly infectious virus rather than a war.

  4. Resolved true Prediction 2015
    “And you can see there's over 30 million people die from that epidemic.”

    In the epidemic shown, which would spread throughout the world very quickly, over 30 million people die.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 4 February 2025
    “The climate work, there’ll be some policy things that are less favorable.”

    Some government policies affecting climate work will become less favorable than before.

All of them

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