ClaimsPeople

Bill Gates

Bill Gates is a co-founder of Microsoft, chair of the Gates Foundation, and author of the Gates Notes blog.

583 claims collected, 186 researched, 85 resolved. Report of 10 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    77 71 83

    High confidence, 79 factual claims resolved. From 17 documents, 1999 to 2026; 18 documents sampled from 34 candidates found.

    Not scored: 16 unresolvable, 10 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    58 38 77

    Low confidence, 6 predictions resolved. From 4 documents, 2015 to 2025; 18 documents sampled from 34 candidates found.

    Not scored: 49 unresolvable. 26 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

All types combined: 75 (likely 70 to 81, high confidence), from 85 claims: 79 factual claims, 6 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Bill Gates's claims

6 claims

6 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Resolved true Prediction 4 Feb 2025 Some government policies affecting climate work will become less favorable than before. Prediction · 4 Feb 2025 AI policy and governance
Mixed Prediction Feb 2021 New COVID-19 tests, treatments and vaccines will soon begin to bend the pandemic curve substantially. Prediction · Feb 2021 Biosecurity
Mostly false Prediction 2015 Guinea worm disease will be eradicated soon, thanks largely to President Jimmy Carter and the Carter Center. Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Mostly false Prediction 2015 Polio can be eliminated from Africa in 2015 and from every country in the world within several years. Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Resolved true Prediction 2015 In the epidemic shown, which would spread throughout the world very quickly, over 30 million people die. Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
Mostly true Prediction 2015 If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it will most likely be a highly infectious virus rather than a war. Prediction · 2015 Biosecurity
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Bill Gates

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Prediction AI policy and governance

“The climate work, there’ll be some policy things that are less favorable.”

Bill Gates, interviewee 4 February 2025 Interview: Bill Gates on his early years, key influences, and outlook on the world today (GeekWire)

Some government policies affecting climate work will become less favorable than before.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

What would count as true or false

No horizon is stated; judge it about one year after the statement (by 2026-02-04). True: within that period, at least one major government, most notably the US federal government, adopted policies less favorable to climate work than before. Examples would be repealing or cutting clean-energy subsidies or tax credits, withdrawing from climate agreements, cutting climate research or aid funding, or rolling back emissions regulations. Mostly true: such less favorable policies were adopted, but only in narrower or less significant ways than the statement implies. Mixed: changes were mainly announced or proposed, with only some enacted, or the picture was offset by comparably favorable policies elsewhere. Mostly false: there were only minor or symbolic unfavorable changes. False: there were no material unfavorable policy changes, or climate policy became more favorable overall.

Evidence

  1. Paris Climate Agreement Environmental and Energy Law Program (EELP), Harvard Law School · 27 January 2026
    “Jan. 7, 2026 The Trump administration announced that it is withdrawing the United States from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the treaty that underlies international cooperation on climate change.”
  2. Paris Climate Agreement Environmental and Energy Law Program (EELP), Harvard Law School · 27 January 2026
    “On Jan. 27, 2026, the United States withdrawal from the Paris Agreement became effective after a year-long process.”
  3. Paris Climate Agreement Environmental and Energy Law Program (EELP), Harvard Law School · 27 January 2026
    “Jan. 20, 2025 The Trump administration by executive order announced the United States will withdraw from the Paris Accords.”
  4. OXFORD CLIMATE POLICY MONITOR 2025 ANNUAL REVIEW Oxford Climate Policy Hub, University of Oxford · November 2025
    “with formal policy rollbacks in only one case: the United States.”

Reasoning

Harvard's EELP tracker records that the US government ordered withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on Jan. 20, 2025 (E3), and that the withdrawal took effect on Jan. 27, 2026 (E2). On Jan. 7, 2026 it also announced withdrawal from the UNFCCC (E1). Oxford's 2025 annual review identifies the United States as a case of formal climate policy rollbacks (E4). Together these show a major government adopted climate policies less favorable than before within the one-year window. Withdrawing from climate agreements is one of the examples the criteria give for a true verdict.

Cite this claim

Bill Gates, “Some government policies affecting climate work will become less favorable than before.” (said 4 February 2025). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_ecbfe3f95883, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_ecbfe3f95883

Claims without a verdict

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