ClaimsScott Alexander

“Of 50% predictions, I got 8 right and 5 wrong, for a score of 62%”

Scott Alexander, blogger 31 December 2016 2016 Predictions: Calibration Results (Slate Star Codex) archived copy

Factual Their own work or organisation

Of his 2016 predictions made at 50% confidence, Scott Alexander got 8 right and 5 wrong, a score of 62%.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

Judged as of 2016-12-31. True: Scott's scoring of his 2016 predictions reports exactly 8 right and 5 wrong at 50% confidence, a score of about 62% (8/13 = 61.5%). Mostly true: the counts differ by one, or the percentage is rounded differently. Mostly false: the counts differ by two or three. False: the counts are clearly different or there is no such 50% bucket. If the post was later corrected, the corrected figures govern.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (1)

  1. E1 Predictions For 2016 Slate Star Codex · 25 January 2016 Own record

    “45. SpaceX successfully launches a reused rocket: 50%”

Reasoning

The only evidence, E2, is Scott Alexander's January 2016 list of predictions. It shows that one item, a SpaceX reused-rocket launch, was given 50% confidence. It does not show his end-of-year scoring or how many 50% predictions came out right or wrong. Without that scoring, the 8-right, 5-wrong count and the 62% figure cannot be checked.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Of his 2016 predictions made at 50% confidence, Scott Alexander got 8 right and 5 wrong, a score of 62%.” (said 31 December 2016). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_3e9dd6193382, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_3e9dd6193382

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Scott Alexander, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

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  2. Resolved true Factual 5 October 2026
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  3. Resolved true Factual 10 December 2024
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  4. Resolved true Factual 20 February 2023
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  5. Resolved true Factual 14 March 2022
    “Also last month, I suggested Manifold Markets have a loan feature to help boost investment in long-term markets.”

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All of them

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