ClaimsNate Silver

“So, let’s call it 9-12 posts a month.”

Nate Silver, author of Silver Bulletin 7 November 2024 The model exactly predicted the most likely election map (Silver Bulletin) archived copy

Promise Their own work or organisation

Silver Bulletin will publish about 9-12 posts a month after the election wind-down.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Promise: Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

What would count as true or false

The claim is about 9-12 posts a month after the wind-down. It is measured over December 2024 to November 2025. Count the newsletter posts (articles, SBSQ and similar posts) published each month in the Silver Bulletin archive. Leave out podcast-only episode entries and automatic updates to model or dashboard pages. True: the average monthly count is 9-12, and most months fall within about 8-13. Mostly true: the average is 8-13, but several months fall clearly outside the range. Mixed: roughly half the months are within about 8-13 and the rest clearly outside. Mostly false: the average is 6-7 or 14-16. False: the average is below 6 or above 16.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (7)

  1. E1 The Silver Bulletin Year in Review Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver's Substack) · 31 December 2025 Own record

    “Other periods were slower. One of the reasons we're hiring an editor is to raise the floor for content volume during those times.”

  2. E2 The Silver Bulletin Year in Review Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver's Substack) · 31 December 2025 Own record

    “October/November was another really busy stretch between the off-year elections, the shutdown, a massive gambling scandal and the launch of ELWAY.”

  3. E3 The Silver Bulletin Year in Review Silver Bulletin (Substack, natesilver.net) · 31 December 2025 Own record

    “Other periods were slower. One of the reasons we're hiring an editor is to raise the floor for content volume during those times.”

  4. E4 The Silver Bulletin Year in Review Silver Bulletin (Substack, natesilver.net) · 31 December 2025 Own record

    “The rest of November was a little slow as I was recovering from the ELWAY/election crunch, but I thought these two posts were a lot of fun:”

  5. E5 Silver Bulletin | Substack Silver Bulletin (Substack) · 9 November 2025 Own record

    “SBSQ #26: Do prediction markets make polls useless? Plus the 2026 Senate map, Joe Burrow versus Joe Flacco, and why you should do creative work until you die. Nov 9, 2025”

  6. E6 What if you love Silver Bulletin... but hate sports? Silver Bulletin (Substack) · 20 November 2025 Own record

    “We are, however, gradually ramping up the amount of content that we publish.”

  7. E7 Job listing: Associate Editor Silver Bulletin (Substack) · 9 February 2026 Own record

    “We’d also like to slightly increase the number of newsletters that we publish per week.”

Reasoning

The criteria require counting newsletter posts per month from December 2024 to November 2025, and none of the evidence gives monthly post counts. The year-in-review post says some periods were busy and others slower (E1–E4), and Silver Bulletin says it is ramping up output and wants to publish slightly more newsletters per week (E6, E7). These are the subject's own general statements, so they cannot establish the monthly average. The single SBSQ listing (E5) is one post, not a count.

Cite this claim

Nate Silver, “Silver Bulletin will publish about 9-12 posts a month after the election wind-down.” (said 7 November 2024). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_3dbc4b94e10e, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_3dbc4b94e10e

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Nate Silver, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More promise claims by Nate Silver

  1. Delivered on time Promise 12 May 2025
    “It will be at least a year before we have the official Silver Bulletin midterms forecast up.”

    The Silver Bulletin will not publish its official 2026 midterms forecast until at least a year after May 2025.

  2. Mostly false Promise 7 November 2024
    “I’ll probably begin with college basketball Elo ratings just because those are pretty straightforward, with a goal of launching by the end of the year, if not sooner.”

    Silver said he would probably begin with college basketball Elo ratings, with a goal of launching by the end of 2024, if not sooner.

  3. Mostly true Promise 11 September 2023
    “Occasional2 paywalled posts on other topics that attract nerdy but enthusiastic audiences.”

    Silver Bulletin will publish occasional paywalled posts on other topics for paid subscribers.

  4. Resolved true Promise 11 September 2023
    “Periodic1 paid-subscriber-only Q&A threads, where I’ll answer reader questions from paid subscribers.”

    Nate Silver will hold periodic paid-subscriber-only Q&A threads on Silver Bulletin, answering questions from paid subscribers.

  5. Delivered on time Promise 29 June 2022
    “Midterms model coming soon; think one of the topline numbers might surprise people a bit.”

    Nate Silver's midterms forecast model will be published soon.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.