ClaimsBill Ackman

“Absent a further change in policy from Treasury and FHFA, we would expect Freddie to resume dividend payments to the Treasury in the third quarter.”

Bill Ackman, letter author 17 May 2018 Pershing Square 1Q18 Investor Letter (Pershing Square Holdings)

Prediction Economics and markets

Absent a further policy change from Treasury and FHFA, the subject said he expected Freddie Mac to resume dividend payments to the Treasury in the third quarter of 2018.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

True: Freddie Mac paid a cash dividend on the senior preferred stock to Treasury in Q3 2018, typically on or around 30 September 2018, as shown in its filings. Mostly true: the dividend was declared or paid on the Q3 2018 dividend date with a minor timing or amount detail differing. Mostly false: no Q3 2018 dividend was paid but one resumed in Q4 2018. False: no dividend was paid in Q3 2018 and no Treasury/FHFA policy change accounts for this. If Treasury and FHFA documentably changed policy (for example an amendment to the PSPA or the capital reserve) and that change prevented the Q3 payment, the stated condition failed and the claim should be rated mixed rather than false.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (3)

  1. E1 Bailout Events for September 2018 | Eye on the Bailout | ProPublica ProPublica

    “| 09/27/2018 | Freddie Mac | Dividend | $1,585,000,000 | PSI | Dividend Payment<br>The dividend amount was based on a net worth amount of $4.6 billion at June 30, 2018 minus the capital reserve of $3 billion.”
  2. E2 Financial Results Press Release, Second Quarter 2018 Freddie Mac · 31 July 2018

    “$1.6 billion dividend requirement to the U.S. Treasury in September 2018 based on the company's Net Worth Amount at June 30, 2018 of $4.6 billion less the applicable Capital Reserve Amount.”
  3. E3 Freddie Mac reports income of $2.6 billion in Q3 HousingWire · 31 October 2018

    “The company will pay $2.6 billion dividend to the Treasury in December, based on its net worth as of September 30, 2018 of $5.6 billion.”

Reasoning

ProPublica's bailout tracker records a $1,585,000,000 Freddie Mac dividend payment to Treasury dated 09/27/2018. It says the amount was based on a $4.6 billion net worth at June 30, 2018, minus the $3 billion capital reserve (E1). That date falls in the third quarter of 2018. Freddie Mac's Q2 2018 results release separately states a $1.6 billion dividend requirement to Treasury in September 2018 (E2). The December payment HousingWire reports (E3) is the next quarter's dividend. It does not change the fact that a Q3 payment was made.

Cite this claim

Bill Ackman, “Absent a further policy change from Treasury and FHFA, the subject said he expected Freddie Mac to resume dividend payments to the Treasury in the third quarter of 2018.” (said 17 May 2018). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_3974f2c35d1a, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_3974f2c35d1a

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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