ClaimsBill Gates

“We have advances in biology that should dramatically change the turnaround time to look at a pathogen and be able to make drugs and vaccines that fit for that pathogen.”

Bill Gates, giving TED talk 2015 Transcript of Bill Gates TED Talk 2015: The next outbreak? We're not ready (Rev) archived copy

Prediction Biosecurity

Advances in biology should dramatically shorten the time to analyse a pathogen and make fitting drugs and vaccines.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

A vague 'should' with no horizon; the speed of vaccine development is an open-ended trend.

Cite this claim

Bill Gates, “Advances in biology should dramatically shorten the time to analyse a pathogen and make fitting drugs and vaccines.” (said 2015). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_367db4812fa6, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_367db4812fa6

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Bill Gates, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Bill Gates

  1. Mixed Prediction February 2021
    “We believe these new tools will soon begin bending the curve in a big way.”

    New COVID-19 tests, treatments and vaccines will soon begin to bend the pandemic curve substantially.

  2. Mostly false Prediction 2015
    “Guinea worm, an incredibly painful disease whose sufferers spend months incapacitated while worms that can be several feet long burst out of their legs, will also be gone soon, thanks in large part…”

    Guinea worm disease will be eradicated soon, thanks largely to President Jimmy Carter and the Carter Center.

  3. Mostly false Prediction 2015
    “We can get polio out of Africa this year and out of every country in the world in the next several years.”

    Polio can be eliminated from Africa in 2015 and from every country in the world within several years.

  4. Mostly true Prediction 2015
    “If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it's most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war.”

    If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it will most likely be a highly infectious virus rather than a war.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 2015
    “And you can see there's over 30 million people die from that epidemic.”

    In the epidemic shown, which would spread throughout the world very quickly, over 30 million people die.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.