Subscribers to Silver Bulletin will keep paying the price they signed up for as long as they remain continually subscribed, even if the price rises for new subscribers.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Promise: Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
What would count as true or false
The promise is that subscribers who stay continuously subscribed keep the price they signed up at, even if the price for new subscribers rises. True: Silver Bulletin raised prices for new subscribers, and existing continuous subscribers were kept at their original price (shown by an announcement, Substack grandfathering, or subscriber reports). If no price rise has happened yet, the promise has not been broken. Record that as true but untested, and say so. Mostly true: legacy prices were honoured with a minor exception, such as one plan type or a short-lived glitch that was fixed. Mostly false: legacy prices were honoured only for a limited time or for some subscriber groups, and other continuous subscribers were moved to the higher price. False: an announcement or documented subscriber reports show that continuously subscribed existing subscribers had their price raised along with new subscribers.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Announcing 2024 election model plans Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver) · 17 April 2024 Own record
“Current prices are $8/month or $80 a year and will remain locked in indefinitely so long as you remain continually subscribed.”
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E2 Announcing 2024 election model plans Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver) · 17 April 2024 Own record
“I plan to increase prices to $10/month and $95/year at some point before model launch.”
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E3 SBSQ #12: Will the polls lowball Trump again? Silver Bulletin (natesilver.net) · 31 August 2024 Own record
“This will not affect people who are already subscribed on either the monthly or annual plans: our policy at Silver Bulletin is that you get to keep the price you signed up for indefinitely so long as you remained continually subscribed.”
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E4 Comments will now mostly be for paying subscribers Silver Bulletin (natesilver.net) · 23 May 2024 Own record
“My policy, like must Substackers, is to lock in pricing indefinitely at the time people sign up for a subscription. So if you’re already signed up you’ll keep the current pricing of $8/month or $80/year.”
Reasoning
E2 announced a planned rise to $10/month and $95/year, and E3 refers to a change that "will not affect people who are already subscribed." E1, E3 and E4 each restate the policy that subscribers keep the price they signed up at while they stay continuously subscribed. All of these are Silver Bulletin's own posts repeating the promise. The evidence consists of Silver Bulletin's own announcements [E1][E2][E3][E4]; no independent source or subscriber report was found. The support is the subject's own announcements, which state that existing subscribers keep the price they signed up for while continuously subscribed [E1][E3][E4]; no independent source confirms this.
Cite this claim
Nate Silver, “Subscribers to Silver Bulletin will keep paying the price they signed up for as long as they remain continually subscribed, even if the price rises for new subscribers.” (said 11 September 2023). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_170a37db37c7, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_170a37db37c7
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More promise claims by Nate Silver
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Delivered on time
“It will be at least a year before we have the official Silver Bulletin midterms forecast up.”
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Mostly false
“I’ll probably begin with college basketball Elo ratings just because those are pretty straightforward, with a goal of launching by the end of the year, if not sooner.”
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Mostly true
“Occasional2 paywalled posts on other topics that attract nerdy but enthusiastic audiences.”
Silver Bulletin will publish occasional paywalled posts on other topics for paid subscribers.
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Resolved true
“Periodic1 paid-subscriber-only Q&A threads, where I’ll answer reader questions from paid subscribers.”
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Delivered on time
“Midterms model coming soon; think one of the topline numbers might surprise people a bit.”
Nate Silver's midterms forecast model will be published soon.
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.