ClaimsScott Alexander

“Order of once a year.”

Scott Alexander, interviewee 3 April 2025 AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo (Dwarkesh Podcast) archived copy

Factual Their own work or organisation

Scott Alexander discovers a new blogger he is super excited about about once a year.

Own records only Only the person's or their organisation's own records speak to it, so it is not scored.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

Reasoning

Frequency of Scott's personal excitement about new bloggers is only known to him.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Scott Alexander discovers a new blogger he is super excited about about once a year.” (said 3 April 2025). Verdict: own records only. Reliability API, claim c_14a4353cc7e2, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_14a4353cc7e2

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Scott Alexander, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Scott Alexander

  1. Mostly true Factual 5 October 2026
    “Reader Nikita Sokolsky has completed his work getting some extra Fatima documents from Portugal and translating them into English.”

    Reader Nikita Sokolsky has finished obtaining extra Fatima documents from Portugal and translating them into English.

  2. Resolved true Factual 5 October 2026
    “Rob Ennals, who made this year’s book review contest site, has gathered the reviews from earlier years into epubs here.”

    Rob Ennals, who made this year's ACX book review contest site, has gathered reviews from earlier years into epubs.

  3. Resolved true Factual 10 December 2024
    “There’s a good interview with Skarbek in last month’s issue of Asterisk, I think it will be online shortly.”

    Last month's issue of Asterisk (November 2024) contains an interview with Skarbek, which Scott thinks will be online shortly.

  4. Resolved true Factual 20 February 2023
    “Things felt so fuzzy that I (partly) abandoned my usual clear-resolution probabilistic predictions for total guesses.”

    In 2018 Scott Alexander partly abandoned his usual clear-resolution probabilistic predictions for rough guesses in his five-year predictions.

  5. Resolved true Factual 14 March 2022
    “Also last month, I suggested Manifold Markets have a loan feature to help boost investment in long-term markets.”

    In February 2022 Scott Alexander suggested that Manifold Markets add a loan feature to boost investment in long-term markets.

All of them

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