ClaimsNate Silver

“my guess is that at most of this will hold up because they’re places where liberal blue state emigres tend to wind up.”

Nate Silver, author of Silver Bulletin 7 November 2024 The model exactly predicted the most likely election map (Silver Bulletin) archived copy

Prediction Other

Noting that many mail votes were still to be counted, Silver guessed that most of the shift toward Democrats in Washington, Oregon and Colorado would hold up.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

What would count as true or false

For Washington, Oregon and Colorado, compare the Democrats' relative performance shown in counts around 2024-11-07 with the certified 2024 presidential results. 'Relative performance' means the 2024 margin against the 2020 margin, or against the national swing. TRUE: in all three states the certified results keep the Democratic-favourable shift shown on 11-07, with no large erosion. MOSTLY TRUE: two states keep it fully and the third keeps most of it. MIXED: the shift holds in only one or two states, or shrinks substantially across the board while remaining. MOSTLY FALSE: most of the shift erodes in most of the states. FALSE: late mail ballots reverse the shift in all three states.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (6)

  1. E1 Office of the Secretary of State Certifies 2024 General Election Results Washington Office of the Secretary of State · 4 December 2024

    “The Office of the Secretary of State certified statewide results of the 2024 General Election on Wednesday, Dec. 4.”

  2. E2 Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold Certifies the State's 2024 General Election Colorado Department of State · 6 December 2024

    “Denver, December 6, 2024 - Secretary of State Jena Griswold today certified the 2024 General Election, making the results of the election official and final.”

  3. E3 Newsroom - Secretary of State Oregon Secretary of State · 11 December 2024

    “Secretary of State LaVonne Griffin-Valade and Governor Tina Kotek Certify 2024 General Election and Presidential Electors”

  4. E4 Some reliably blue resort areas in Colorado see a slight shift toward Trump as much of the country swings right Summit Daily News · 6 November 2024

    “Statewide, Harris maintained an 11-percentage-point lead over Trump as of midday Wednesday, Nov. 6. That represents a slight underperformance compared to Biden, who won the state by 13 points.”

  5. E5 2024 Colorado Presidential Election Results | Election.org Election.org

    “Kamala D. Harris led the state popular vote with 1,728,159 votes, or 54.13%.”

  6. E6 November 5, 2024 General Election Results - President/Vice President Washington Secretary of State, Elections Division · 26 November 2024

    “Kamala D. Harris / Tim Walz Democratic Party Nominees | 2,245,849 | 57.23%”

Reasoning

E1–E3 show that Washington, Colorado and Oregon certified their 2024 results, but they give no margins. E5 and E6 give only Harris's vote shares for Colorado (54.13%) and Washington (57.23%). Neither gives Trump's share, the 2020 margin or the national swing. E4 gives Colorado's margin on 6 November, but there are no counts from 7 November for the three states and no Oregon figures at all. So the evidence doesn't show whether the Democratic-favourable shift held up in the certified results.

Cite this claim

Nate Silver, “Noting that many mail votes were still to be counted, Silver guessed that most of the shift toward Democrats in Washington, Oregon and Colorado would hold up.” (said 7 November 2024). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_0705d48f6ee0, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_0705d48f6ee0

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Nate Silver, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Nate Silver

  1. Mostly false Prediction 8 September 2023
    “I’d argue that 1 (Biden winning) is more likely than 2 (Trump winning) which, in turn, is more likely than 3 (someone else winning).”

    Biden winning the 2024 presidential election is more likely than Trump winning, which is more likely than someone else winning.

  2. Mostly false Prediction 8 September 2023
    “If Trump does well in Iowa and New Hampshire — and there’s no snafu for Biden — they could become their party’s presumptive nominees as soon as February”

    If Trump does well in Iowa and New Hampshire and Biden has no snafu, Trump and Biden could become their parties' presumptive 2024 nominees as soon as February 2024.

  3. Resolved false Prediction 2015
    “Our emphatic prediction is simply that Trump will not win the nomination.”

    Donald Trump will not win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.

  4. Resolved false Prediction 2015
    “Nor, in all likelihood, could Trump win with a plurality of votes or delegates because the Republican Party, which controls the nomination process, would unite against him.”

    In all likelihood, Trump could not win the Republican nomination with only a plurality of votes or delegates, because the Republican Party would unite against him.

  5. Mixed Prediction 8 April 2025
    “Children's toys are gonna become much more expensive because they're made in countries like Vietnam in Southeast Asia that are heavily taraffed.”

    Children's toys will become much more expensive in the US because they are made in heavily tariffed countries such as Vietnam.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.