ClaimsPeople

Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett led Berkshire Hathaway as chairman from 1970 and as CEO until January 1, 2026, and now serves as chairman emeritus and a board member.

1,556 claims collected, 281 researched, 78 resolved. Report of 5 November 2026, method 0.1.0+28da144b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    85 79 91

    High confidence, 51 factual claims resolved. From 14 documents, 2001 to 2026; 15 documents sampled from 31 candidates found.

    Not scored: 51 unresolvable, 45 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    78 65 89

    Low confidence, 14 predictions resolved. From 6 documents, 2001 to 2024; 15 documents sampled from 31 candidates found.

    Not scored: 71 unresolvable, 2 checkable only against their own records. 10 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    72 57 85

    Low confidence, 12 promises resolved. From 7 documents, 2001 to 2026; 15 documents sampled from 31 candidates found.

    Not scored: 17 unresolvable, 4 not yet due, 1 checkable only against their own records.

    See the promises

  • Guidance

    A company's own figures for its results over a period, checked against what it then reported.

    Insufficient record: 1 guidance claim resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 2 unresolvable.

    See the guidance

All types combined: 82 (likely 76 to 87, high confidence), from 77 claims: 51 factual claims, 14 predictions, 12 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Warren Buffett's claims

3 claims

3 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Guidance 2025 Berkshire expects 2025 dividend income from its Japanese investments of about $812 million, against interest cost on its yen-denominated debt of about $135 million. Guidance · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Guidance 2007 After the Equitas transaction, Berkshire's annual DCRA cost will initially increase to about $450 million a year. Guidance · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Guidance 28 Feb 2002 FlightSafety expects to spend $162 million on 27 simulators in 2002, versus annual depreciation of $95 million. Guidance · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
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Warren Buffett

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Guidance Their own work or organisation

“As I write this, the annual dividend income expected from the Japanese investments in 2025 will total about $812 million and the interest cost of our yen-denominated debt will be about $135 million.”

Warren Buffett, Berkshire chairman 2025 Berkshire Hathaway 2024 Annual Report (Berkshire Hathaway)

Berkshire expects 2025 dividend income from its Japanese investments of about $812 million, against interest cost on its yen-denominated debt of about $135 million.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Two figures for calendar 2025, as reported by Berkshire (2025 annual report/10-K or the shareholder letter published in early 2026): (a) dividend income from the Japanese trading-house investments, about $812M; (b) interest cost on yen-denominated debt, about $135M. A figure 'holds' if it is within ±5% of the stated amount; it is 'close' if within ±5–15%. True: both hold. Mostly true: one holds and the other is close, or both are close. Mixed: one holds or is close and the other is more than 15% off. Mostly false: both are 15–30% off. False: both are more than 30% off.

Evidence

  1. Berkshire bets more on Japan's top trading houses: Do their fundamentals hold up? By Investing.com Investing.com · 3 September 2026
    “The stance matters because Berkshire earned $862M in dividends from the group during 2025.”
  2. Berkshire bets more on Japan's top trading houses: Do their fundamentals hold up? Investing.com · 3 September 2026
    “The stance matters because Berkshire earned $862M in dividends from the group during 2025.”

Reasoning

E1/E2, a single secondary press article, reports that Berkshire earned $862M in dividends from the Japanese trading houses in 2025. That is about 6% above the guided $812M, so it would count as 'close' under the criteria, not 'holds'. No evidence gives the 2025 interest cost on the yen-denominated debt, and the criteria need both figures. Depending on that missing figure, the verdict could be anywhere from mostly true to mixed, and none of the evidence is Berkshire's own 10-K or shareholder letter.

Cite this claim

Warren Buffett, “Berkshire expects 2025 dividend income from its Japanese investments of about $812 million, against interest cost on its yen-denominated debt of about $135 million.” (said 2025). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_d86b34480f54, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_d86b34480f54

Claims without a verdict

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