ClaimsPeople

Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett led Berkshire Hathaway as chairman from 1970 and as CEO until January 1, 2026, and now serves as chairman emeritus and a board member.

1,556 claims collected, 281 researched, 78 resolved. Report of 5 November 2026, method 0.1.0+28da144b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    85 79 91

    High confidence, 51 factual claims resolved. From 14 documents, 2001 to 2026; 15 documents sampled from 31 candidates found.

    Not scored: 51 unresolvable, 45 checkable only against their own records.

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    78 65 89

    Low confidence, 14 predictions resolved. From 6 documents, 2001 to 2024; 15 documents sampled from 31 candidates found.

    Not scored: 71 unresolvable, 2 checkable only against their own records. 10 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    72 57 85

    Low confidence, 12 promises resolved. From 7 documents, 2001 to 2026; 15 documents sampled from 31 candidates found.

    Not scored: 17 unresolvable, 4 not yet due, 1 checkable only against their own records.

  • Guidance

    A company's own figures for its results over a period, checked against what it then reported.

    Insufficient record: 1 guidance claim resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 2 unresolvable.

All types combined: 82 (likely 76 to 87, high confidence), from 77 claims: 51 factual claims, 14 predictions, 12 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Warren Buffett's claims

141 claims · page 1 of 2

141 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Factual 18 Sep 2026 Warren Buffett took the reins at Berkshire at age 34, after a shorter apprenticeship than Howard Buffett's 33 years as director. Factual · 18 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 10 Nov 2025 Buffett said that after Stan built the paper's new Sunday product, Berkshire's newspaper, which had been losing cash, earned over 100% annually pre-tax on Berkshire's $33 million investment for some years. Factual · 10 Nov 2025 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Promise 10 Nov 2025 Buffett will keep writing an annual Thanksgiving message to Berkshire shareholders. Promise · 10 Nov 2025 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 10 Nov 2025 Berkshire's stock price has fallen about 50% three times in 60 years under present management. Factual · 10 Nov 2025 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2025 A truly staggering insurance loss will occur someday, and there is no guarantee there will be only one per year. Prediction · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 2025 Berkshire's insurance operations are not dependent on reinsurers. Factual · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2025 Buffett said he expects that Greg and his eventual successors will hold Berkshire's Japanese position for many decades, and that Berkshire will find other ways to work productively with the five companies in the future. Prediction · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2025 Over time Berkshire's ownership stake in all five Japanese companies will likely increase somewhat. Prediction · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Promise 2025 Berkshire's 2025 annual meeting will have no movie and will convene earlier, at 8 a.m. Promise · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 2025 In 2024 Berkshire made four payments to the IRS totaling $26.8 billion. Factual · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Guidance 2025 Berkshire expects 2025 dividend income from its Japanese investments of about $812 million, against interest cost on its yen-denominated debt of about $135 million. Guidance · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2025 Berkshire's insurance float is likely to grow a bit over time and, with intelligent underwriting and some luck, has a reasonable prospect of being costless. Prediction · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 5 May 2024 The donor's scholarship program may end up supporting 150 students. Prediction · 5 May 2024 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Factual 5 May 2024 There have been times in Buffett's investing life when he had so many opportunities he could have invested everything by nightfall. Factual · 5 May 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 5 May 2024 Buffett said he thought that, with present US fiscal policies, something has to give and higher taxes are quite likely. Prediction · 5 May 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 5 May 2024 The meeting bookstore normally carries about 25 books, and Buffett said he thought about 2,400 copies of Poor Charlie's Almanack (fourth edition) were sold the day before. Factual · 5 May 2024 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 5 May 2024 Utah is very likely to treat Berkshire Hathaway Energy fairly on utility rates or compensation if it moves to public power. Prediction · 5 May 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 5 May 2024 Buffett said he thinks the number of Berkshire shareholders across the US who have given $100 million or more to local charities is many multiples of that of any other US public company. Factual · 5 May 2024 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Prediction 5 May 2024 Buffett said he did not know, but his best speculation was that US debt will remain acceptable for a very long time because there is not much alternative. Prediction · 5 May 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 5 May 2024 If anything happened to Buffett, Berkshire would be working extremely well the next day. Prediction · 5 May 2024 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 5 May 2024 In 2008 people did have money but were paralyzed and unwilling to act. Factual · 5 May 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 5 May 2024 Charlie Munger understood the importance of psychology, human behavior and incentives very early. Factual · 5 May 2024 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 5 May 2024 With a million dollars, an investor who studies small companies could earn 50% a year. Prediction · 5 May 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 5 May 2024 Buffett said he did not think "we" would end up with a better system, speaking in the context of Berkshire's real estate brokerage business. Prediction · 5 May 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 5 May 2024 Buffett, who said he does not really know anything about AI, said it will affect anything labor-intensive and can create an enormous amount of leisure time. Prediction · 5 May 2024 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Prediction 5 May 2024 Solar will never be the only source of electricity, barring real breakthroughs in storage. Prediction · 5 May 2024 Technology
Unresolvable Factual 5 May 2024 A significant number of Berkshire shareholders across the US have given $100 million or more to local charities. Factual · 5 May 2024 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Factual 5 May 2024 Buffett kept Berkshire in the textile business as long as he did partly because he liked Ken Chase, who ran it. Factual · 5 May 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 5 May 2024 A great many Berkshire shareholders make large charitable gifts anonymously. Factual · 5 May 2024 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Factual 5 May 2024 Berkshire has not historically been very tough on managers who coasted. Factual · 5 May 2024 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 5 May 2024 When Buffett was born in 1930 the world population was essentially 2 billion; it is now 8 billion. Factual · 5 May 2024 Other
Unresolvable Prediction 4 May 2024 If anything happened to Buffett, Berkshire would work extremely well the next day. Prediction · 4 May 2024 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 4 May 2024 The electric utility industry will never be nearly as good a business as the other kinds of businesses Berkshire owns. Prediction · 4 May 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 4 May 2024 On 4 May 2024, Buffett said it had been reported to him that See's Candy set a new record. Factual · 4 May 2024 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 4 May 2024 Buffett said that Greg will do something about a problem he described, which he said he and Charlie would not have acted on, not because they did not know it should be done but because they were doing so well themselves. Prediction · 4 May 2024 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 4 May 2024 Buffett said he thought that if Utah moved to public power, it would compensate Berkshire fairly. Prediction · 4 May 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 4 May 2024 Saying that he does not really know anything about AI, Buffett suggested that AI will affect anything that is labor-intensive and that it can create an enormous amount of leisure time. Prediction · 4 May 2024 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Factual 4 May 2024 A significant number of Berkshire shareholders across the US have contributed $100 million or more to local charities, usually anonymously. Factual · 4 May 2024 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Factual 4 May 2024 Berkshire has not historically been very tough on managers who coasted. Factual · 4 May 2024 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 4 May 2024 Buffett says it may end up being 150 people who are able to pursue different lives. Prediction · 4 May 2024 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Factual 4 May 2024 The US federal corporate tax rate was 35% not long ago and has been 52% in the past during Buffett's career. Factual · 4 May 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 4 May 2024 Buffett says he thinks charitable giving by Berkshire shareholders to local charities is many multiples of that by shareholders of any other US public company. Factual · 4 May 2024 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Prediction 4 May 2024 Utah is very likely to treat Berkshire's utility business fairly, including on granting appropriate rates. Prediction · 4 May 2024 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 4 May 2024 Buffett said he did not know, but his best speculation was that US government debt will remain acceptable for a very long time because there is not much alternative. Prediction · 4 May 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 4 May 2024 Buffett says a figure he discusses alongside driving, which was about seven or six after World War II, has come down to under two, and he credits Ralph Nader with the decline; he does not state what the figure measures or its unit. Factual · 4 May 2024 Technology
Unresolvable Prediction 4 May 2024 No company will be dramatically better than others in returns over the next century. Prediction · 4 May 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 4 May 2024 Given present US fiscal policies, higher taxes are quite likely in the future. Prediction · 4 May 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 4 May 2024 Someone will invest hundreds of billions, perhaps trillions, of dollars in electric power, via public power or private enterprise. Prediction · 4 May 2024 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 4 May 2024 Solar will never be the only source of electricity, barring real breakthroughs in energy storage. Prediction · 4 May 2024 Technology
Unresolvable Prediction 15 Dec 2020 Buffett said Carla Walker-Miller needs help and will make the most of it, and guaranteed that she will be a success and will employ lots more people in future than she does now. Prediction · 15 Dec 2020 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 15 Dec 2020 Business at restaurants, gyms and similar venues hit by pandemic fears will come back. Prediction · 15 Dec 2020 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 15 Dec 2020 Michael Porter helped develop the curriculum of the Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Businesses program. Factual · 15 Dec 2020 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 15 Dec 2020 Buffett graduated from two universities and attended neither graduation ceremony. Factual · 15 Dec 2020 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 15 Dec 2020 there will be fraud connected with it Prediction · 15 Dec 2020 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 15 Dec 2020 The company Mrs. B started at the Furniture Mart now employs probably 10,000 people. Factual · 15 Dec 2020 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said he thought the US economy would be better off four years from February 2017, even though he disagreed with some specific policies. Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 27 Feb 2017 The Dow will certainly approach 100,000 within the lifetime of the person addressed, requiring only that the American system keeps functioning much as it has. Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 27 Feb 2017 The odds are very high that any US administration ends up with the economy better four years later than at present. Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 27 Feb 2017 Buffett guessed that there would be another deal involving Kraft Heinz at some point, and said he did not know when. Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 27 Feb 2017 The odds are good that the US will have economic prosperity in any given four-year period. Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 27 Feb 2017 A company may not buy over 10 percent of a financial company unless it becomes a bank holding company. Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said he would bet the Berkshire employee bracket contest would go over 100,000 entries in 2017, after 85,000 entries in 2016. Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said he does not work on acquisitions "that way" himself, referring back to an approach mentioned just before. He said he tells the seller he will make an offer if they want one and won't make one if they don't. Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Promise 27 Feb 2017 If exactly one Berkshire employee reaches the sweet 16 in the contest, that employee will receive $1 million a year for life. Promise · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 21 Jul 2016 Berkshire has a provision that in any corporate transaction Class A stock cannot be treated differently from Class B stock. Factual · 21 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 21 Jul 2016 Buffett has given away about 40% of his Berkshire shares as of July 2016. Factual · 21 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 21 Jul 2016 Berkshire does not use consultants or advisory organizations to direct how it votes its shares. Factual · 21 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 9 Feb 2012 Buffett predicts that over any extended period, the equity-type investment category he favours will be by far the safest of the three major investment categories. Prediction · 9 Feb 2012 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 9 Feb 2012 At a gold price of $1,750 per ounce at the time of writing, the world's gold stock is worth about $9.6 trillion. Factual · 9 Feb 2012 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 9 Feb 2012 An individual taxed at an average 25% earning 5.7% on Treasury bills over 47 years would have had zero real income after taxes and inflation. Factual · 9 Feb 2012 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 9 Feb 2012 Buffett said he believes that over any extended period, investing in businesses, whether owned in their entirety or through sizable holdings of marketable stocks, will prove to be the runaway winner among the three investment categories he examined. Prediction · 9 Feb 2012 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 9 Feb 2012 Over the past century, these instruments destroyed the purchasing power of investors in many countries even as interest and principal were paid on time. Factual · 9 Feb 2012 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 9 Feb 2012 The destruction of investors' purchasing power by these instruments will forever recur. Prediction · 9 Feb 2012 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 9 Feb 2012 A tax-free institution would have needed 4.3% annual interest from bond investments over the period described, during which it came to take $7 to buy what $1 had bought, simply to maintain its purchasing power. Factual · 9 Feb 2012 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 15 Aug 2011 The mega-rich in the US continue to receive extraordinary tax breaks, as of August 2011. Factual · 15 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 15 Aug 2011 The mega-rich pay income taxes at 15 percent on most of their earnings but pay practically nothing in payroll taxes. Factual · 15 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 15 Aug 2011 Buffett's 2010 federal tax payment was 17.4 percent of his taxable income, a lower percentage than that paid by any of the other 20 people in his office. Factual · 15 Aug 2011 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 15 Aug 2011 Warren Buffett's 2010 federal tax bill, including income tax and payroll taxes paid by and on behalf of him, was $6,938,744. Factual · 15 Aug 2011 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 23 Sep 2010 People like the 23 people who were given a diploma that day, and big business, will take "us" out of "this", the situation the surrounding remarks discuss. Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 23 Sep 2010 Berkshire's businesses are currently adding very few employees. Factual · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 23 Sep 2010 The United States will go forward over time. Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 23 Sep 2010 Huge stimulus during World War II took the US out of the Depression. Factual · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 23 Sep 2010 The US economy will come back regardless of how people feel about Washington. Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 23 Sep 2010 The US will get out of its sour sentiment toward Washington, though he is unsure how. Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2010 About 20% of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway shares have been distributed to date, including shares given by his late wife Susan Buffett. Factual · 2010 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 2007 Buffett said he made a deal with Jack in a few minutes, waiving an audit, due diligence or anything else that would give Jack an opportunity to reconsider. Factual · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2007 Large future gains in Berkshire's non-insurance earnings will come only if it makes major, sensible acquisitions. Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 2007 Buffett said he believed GEICO could save money on insurance for at least half of the Berkshire shareholders who checked their existing insurance with it. Factual · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2007 Buffett's 2007 federal and state income taxes will be exactly what they would have been had he not made his 2007 charitable contributions. Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2007 The decline in Buffalo News profits will almost certainly continue. Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2007 Berkshire is likely to continue earning significant overall profits from mispriced derivatives despite occasional losses. Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2007 As U.S. trade problems worsen, the dollar is highly likely to weaken over time. Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2007 Berkshire has done many retroactive reinsurance transactions, a multiple of the number and amount of such policies entered into by any other insurer. Factual · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2007 Berkshire's business performance will determine its stock price, and most of the time the stock will sell in a zone of reasonableness. Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 2007 In 1967 Buffett had no expectation that Berkshire's float would develop as it has. Factual · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2007 Berkshire's insurance operations will periodically have bad years. Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2007 Buffett said he believed Berkshire's other insurance operations would clear the underwriting-gain hurdle needed for overall float to be cost-free in many, if not most, years. Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2007 Executive compensation reform will occur only if the largest institutional shareholders demand a fresh look at the whole system. Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2007 Buffett's thinking about the disposition of his Berkshire shares is very unlikely to change in a material way. Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2007 The math of the 2-and-20 fee arrangement is certain to make investors poorer over time than they would have been without it. Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Back to the list

Factual Their own work or organisation

“That is a longer apprenticeship than I served before taking the reins at the age of 34.”

Warren Buffett, Berkshire chairman, signed shareholder letter 18 September 2026 Berkshire news release Sep 18, 2026 (Howard Buffett elected Chairman) (Berkshire Hathaway)

Warren Buffett took the reins at Berkshire at age 34, after a shorter apprenticeship than Howard Buffett's 33 years as director.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Two parts: (a) Buffett took control of Berkshire Hathaway at age 34, and (b) the time before that, which he calls his apprenticeship, was shorter than the 33 years Howard Buffett had served as a Berkshire director by September 2026. True: records show Buffett took control of Berkshire (for example, gained control and became chairman or chief executive) when he was 34, based on his birth date of 30 August 1930 and the date he took control, and Howard Buffett's directorship began about 33 years before September 2026, so that the apprenticeship is shorter on any reasonable reading. Mostly true: control passed while he was 34, or within months of turning 34 or 35, depending on which milestone is used (control of the board, chairman, chief executive), and the comparison still holds. Mixed: one part holds and the other clearly fails. Mostly false: he took control at an age clearly different from 34 (off by two years or more), though his apprenticeship was still shorter than Howard's tenure. False: both the age and the comparison are wrong.

Evidence

  1. Warren Buffett abruptly steps down as Berkshire chair as 'Father Time' wins, handing role to son Howard who will 'guard its culture and values' Yahoo Finance · 18 September 2026
    “He pointed out that Howard, 71, has been a Berkshire director for 33 years, representing a longer apprenticeship than the one the elder Buffett had before becoming Berkshire CEO at the age of 34.”

Reasoning

The only evidence, E1, comes from an independent outlet, but it presents the key figures as what Buffett "pointed out". Those figures are Howard's 33 years as a director and Warren becoming CEO at 34 after a shorter apprenticeship. E1 gives no independent record of the date Buffett took control of Berkshire, his birth date, or when Howard's directorship began. Without those, neither the age of 34 nor the comparison can be checked against anything other than the subject's own account.

Cite this claim

Warren Buffett, “Warren Buffett took the reins at Berkshire at age 34, after a shorter apprenticeship than Howard Buffett's 33 years as director.” (said 18 September 2026). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_71eee39e0480, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_71eee39e0480

Claims without a verdict

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