ClaimsPeople

Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett led Berkshire Hathaway as chairman from 1970 and as CEO until January 1, 2026, and now serves as chairman emeritus and a board member.

1,556 claims collected, 281 researched, 78 resolved. Report of 5 November 2026, method 0.1.0+28da144b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    85 79 91

    High confidence, 51 factual claims resolved. From 14 documents, 2001 to 2026; 15 documents sampled from 31 candidates found.

    Not scored: 51 unresolvable, 45 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    78 65 89

    Low confidence, 14 predictions resolved. From 6 documents, 2001 to 2024; 15 documents sampled from 31 candidates found.

    Not scored: 71 unresolvable, 2 checkable only against their own records. 10 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    72 57 85

    Low confidence, 12 promises resolved. From 7 documents, 2001 to 2026; 15 documents sampled from 31 candidates found.

    Not scored: 17 unresolvable, 4 not yet due, 1 checkable only against their own records.

    See the promises

  • Guidance

    A company's own figures for its results over a period, checked against what it then reported.

    Insufficient record: 1 guidance claim resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 2 unresolvable.

    See the guidance

All types combined: 82 (likely 76 to 87, high confidence), from 77 claims: 51 factual claims, 14 predictions, 12 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Warren Buffett's claims

14 claims

14 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Resolved true Prediction 4 May 2024 Apple will very likely still be Berkshire's largest common stock holding at the end of 2024, despite Berkshire having sold some shares. Prediction · 4 May 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Prediction 4 May 2024 Buffett said he feels very comfortable that the post-Buffett decision will be made by Berkshire's board, which he said has loads of brainpower and a dedication to an unusual institution and will figure things out. Prediction · 4 May 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Prediction 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said he thinks those in control will end up going for a less dramatic tax change than they might like, because they don't want to spend the time and political capital getting it done. Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 23 Sep 2010 The US economy will eventually get out of the recession, though not for a while. Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 23 Sep 2010 Buffett said he did not think the expiring tax cuts would end up being extended for no one, i.e. he expected some to be extended. Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 2007 HomeServices will almost certainly be much larger a decade from 2007. Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 2007 Berkshire's results from its bread-and-butter insurance lines will deteriorate in 2007, though Buffett said he thought they would remain satisfactory. Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Prediction 2007 Unrelenting pressures will cause the Buffalo News's profit margins to slide. Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Ron Peltier will likely make more real estate brokerage acquisitions for Berkshire in 2002 and the following years. Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Berkshire expects the FINOVA transaction overall to prove satisfactory for Berkshire. Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Prediction 28 Feb 2002 MidAmerican Energy's reported earnings should increase considerably in 2002 because the goodwill amortization charge will disappear under new GAAP rules. Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Prediction 28 Feb 2001 Buffett said Berkshire was confident that EJA (NetJets) would remain the world leader in fractional ownership in planes flying, service quality and safety standards. Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Prediction 28 Feb 2001 For the next couple of years the Civic Auditorium will be Berkshire's only venue choice for its annual meeting. Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Prediction 28 Feb 2001 Omaha will shortly have a new Convention Center with ample parking. Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
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Warren Buffett

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Prediction Their own work or organisation

“But we have sold shares, and I would say that at the end of the year, I would think it extremely likely that Apple is the largest common stock holding we have now.”

Warren Buffett, Berkshire chairman and CEO 4 May 2024 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting 2024 Transcript (Good-Investing)

Apple will very likely still be Berkshire's largest common stock holding at the end of 2024, despite Berkshire having sold some shares.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

True: Berkshire Hathaway had sold some Apple shares by May 2024, and at 2024-12-31 Apple is still Berkshire's largest common stock holding by market value, as shown in Berkshire's 2024 annual report or its Q4 2024 Form 13F. Mostly true: Apple is the largest holding at year-end, but a minor detail is wrong (for example, the timing of the earlier sales). False: at year-end 2024 another common stock holding has a higher market value than Apple.

Evidence

  1. Berkshire Hathaway’s Fourth Quarter 2024 Portfolio Moves Forbes (contributor Bill Stone) · 15 February 2025
    “Notably, Berkshire stopped paring its Apple (AAPL) position in the fourth quarter. Before the sales in 2024, Apple stock comprised over 50% of its publicly traded portfolio, but it remains the most significant holding at around 28%.”
  2. Berkshire Hathaway’s Fourth Quarter 2024 Portfolio Moves Forbes (contributor Bill Stone) · 15 February 2025
    “The top five holdings, in order of the size of holding, are Apple (AAPL), American Express (AXP), Bank of America (BAC), Coca-Cola (KO), and Chevron (CVX).”

Reasoning

E1 and E2 come from an independent Forbes review of Berkshire's fourth-quarter 2024 portfolio. E1 says Berkshire sold Apple shares during 2024 and stopped selling in the fourth quarter, and that Apple "remains the most significant holding at around 28%." E2 ranks Apple first among the top five holdings, ahead of American Express, Bank of America, Coca-Cola and Chevron. Neither quote says exactly when the sales happened, but together they show that Berkshire had cut its Apple stake and that Apple was still its largest common stock holding at the end of 2024.

Cite this claim

Warren Buffett, “Apple will very likely still be Berkshire's largest common stock holding at the end of 2024, despite Berkshire having sold some shares.” (said 4 May 2024). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_a09d6311dc27, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_a09d6311dc27

Claims without a verdict

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