ClaimsWarren Buffett

“As I write this, the annual dividend income expected from the Japanese investments in 2025 will total about $812 million and the interest cost of our yen-denominated debt will be about $135 million.”

Warren Buffett, Berkshire chairman 2025 Berkshire Hathaway 2024 Annual Report (Berkshire Hathaway) archived copy

Guidance Their own work or organisation

Berkshire expects 2025 dividend income from its Japanese investments of about $812 million, against interest cost on its yen-denominated debt of about $135 million.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Guidance: A company's own figures for its results over a period, checked against what it then reported.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Two figures for calendar 2025, as reported by Berkshire (2025 annual report/10-K or the shareholder letter published in early 2026): (a) dividend income from the Japanese trading-house investments, about $812M; (b) interest cost on yen-denominated debt, about $135M. A figure 'holds' if it is within ±5% of the stated amount; it is 'close' if within ±5–15%. True: both hold. Mostly true: one holds and the other is close, or both are close. Mixed: one holds or is close and the other is more than 15% off. Mostly false: both are 15–30% off. False: both are more than 30% off.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (2)

  1. E1 Berkshire bets more on Japan's top trading houses: Do their fundamentals hold up? By Investing.com Investing.com · 3 September 2026

    “The stance matters because Berkshire earned $862M in dividends from the group during 2025.”
  2. E2 Berkshire bets more on Japan's top trading houses: Do their fundamentals hold up? Investing.com · 3 September 2026

    “The stance matters because Berkshire earned $862M in dividends from the group during 2025.”

Reasoning

E1/E2, a single secondary press article, reports that Berkshire earned $862M in dividends from the Japanese trading houses in 2025. That is about 6% above the guided $812M, so it would count as 'close' under the criteria, not 'holds'. No evidence gives the 2025 interest cost on the yen-denominated debt, and the criteria need both figures. Depending on that missing figure, the verdict could be anywhere from mostly true to mixed, and none of the evidence is Berkshire's own 10-K or shareholder letter.

Cite this claim

Warren Buffett, “Berkshire expects 2025 dividend income from its Japanese investments of about $812 million, against interest cost on its yen-denominated debt of about $135 million.” (said 2025). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_d86b34480f54, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_d86b34480f54

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More guidance claims by Warren Buffett

  1. Mostly true Guidance 2007
    “After the Equitas transaction, however, the annual DCRA cost will initially increase to about $450 million a year.”

    After the Equitas transaction, Berkshire's annual DCRA cost will initially increase to about $450 million a year.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.