ClaimsPeople

Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett led Berkshire Hathaway as chairman from 1970 and as CEO until January 1, 2026, and now serves as chairman emeritus and a board member.

1,556 claims collected, 281 researched, 78 resolved. Report of 5 November 2026, method 0.1.0+28da144b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    85 79 91

    High confidence, 51 factual claims resolved. From 14 documents, 2001 to 2026; 15 documents sampled from 31 candidates found.

    Not scored: 51 unresolvable, 45 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    78 65 89

    Low confidence, 14 predictions resolved. From 6 documents, 2001 to 2024; 15 documents sampled from 31 candidates found.

    Not scored: 71 unresolvable, 2 checkable only against their own records. 10 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    72 57 85

    Low confidence, 12 promises resolved. From 7 documents, 2001 to 2026; 15 documents sampled from 31 candidates found.

    Not scored: 17 unresolvable, 4 not yet due, 1 checkable only against their own records.

    See the promises

  • Guidance

    A company's own figures for its results over a period, checked against what it then reported.

    Insufficient record: 1 guidance claim resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 2 unresolvable.

    See the guidance

All types combined: 82 (likely 76 to 87, high confidence), from 77 claims: 51 factual claims, 14 predictions, 12 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Warren Buffett's claims

281 claims · page 2 of 3

281 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Not yet due Prediction 27 Feb 2017 Buffett guessed that the company he was discussing had about 5.25 billion shares outstanding, and that ten years later it would have substantially fewer. Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said he had never met the CEOs of any of the four airlines, though he added that he may have met one and shaken his hand at a Texas business Hall of Fame event. Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Prediction 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said he thinks those in control will end up going for a less dramatic tax change than they might like, because they don't want to spend the time and political capital getting it done. Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said he thought the US economy would be better off four years from February 2017, even though he disagreed with some specific policies. Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said he usually sees him maybe twice a year, at Sun Valley and perhaps one other time. Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said Berkshire had received nothing but good reports about the CEO, whom Greg Abel had known 20 years earlier. Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 27 Feb 2017 The Dow will certainly approach 100,000 within the lifetime of the person addressed, requiring only that the American system keeps functioning much as it has. Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said that once he and the two others he referred to as "the three of us" learned that it was regarded as unfriendly, they had no intention of making one; the surrounding remarks refer to the 3G people and to Unilever. Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 27 Feb 2017 The odds are very high that any US administration ends up with the economy better four years later than at present. Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 27 Feb 2017 Buffett guessed that there would be another deal involving Kraft Heinz at some point, and said he did not know when. Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 27 Feb 2017 The odds are good that the US will have economic prosperity in any given four-year period. Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 27 Feb 2017 In 1963, during American Express's Salad Oil Scandal, Buffett visited restaurants to see how people used the American Express card, an approach he first used then. Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 27 Feb 2017 Berkshire Hathaway does not make hostile takeover bids. Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 27 Feb 2017 A company may not buy over 10 percent of a financial company unless it becomes a bank holding company. Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said he would bet the Berkshire employee bracket contest would go over 100,000 entries in 2017, after 85,000 entries in 2016. Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Delivered on time Promise 27 Feb 2017 Berkshire will run the same NCAA bracket contest among its employees in 2017 as it did in 2016. Promise · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 27 Feb 2017 As of February 2017, no acquisition deal is in the works at Berkshire. Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 27 Feb 2017 Berkshire closed its purchase of $3 billion of Dow Chemical preferred stock in April 2009, when the market had collapsed. Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said he does not work on acquisitions "that way" himself, referring back to an approach mentioned just before. He said he tells the seller he will make an offer if they want one and won't make one if they don't. Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 27 Feb 2017 Unilever was the only deal in that area that Buffett seriously thought about and that made sense. Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Promise 27 Feb 2017 If exactly one Berkshire employee reaches the sweet 16 in the contest, that employee will receive $1 million a year for life. Promise · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 27 Feb 2017 As of February 2017, there is no backup deal after the Unilever approach. Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Factual 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said Berkshire tried to time its sales of Dow Chemical stock once it rose above the conversion price, selling more aggressively as the price rose, because it did not want to own the roughly 72 million common shares. Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 27 Feb 2017 On 27 February 2017, asked whether he was working on anything, Buffett said he is always looking but that there was "nothing close". Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 27 Feb 2017 Berkshire's US Air preferred stock had a clause under which unpaid dividends compounded at a good rate. Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 21 Jul 2016 Berkshire has a provision that in any corporate transaction Class A stock cannot be treated differently from Class B stock. Factual · 21 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 21 Jul 2016 Buffett has given away about 40% of his Berkshire shares as of July 2016. Factual · 21 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 21 Jul 2016 When Buffett gives away his Berkshire shares, he always converts the Class A voting stock into Class B stock first. Factual · 21 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 21 Jul 2016 Berkshire does not use consultants or advisory organizations to direct how it votes its shares. Factual · 21 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 21 Jul 2016 In certain countries there are various ways for workers to participate in company governance. Factual · 21 Jul 2016 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Factual 21 Jul 2016 New constituencies in corporate governance, such as activists, have become stronger over the years. Factual · 21 Jul 2016 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Prediction 9 Feb 2012 Buffett predicts that over any extended period, the equity-type investment category he favours will be by far the safest of the three major investment categories. Prediction · 9 Feb 2012 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 9 Feb 2012 Buffett said he was confident that, over the century, the $9.6 trillion current valuation of pile A will compound at a rate far inferior to that achieved by pile B. Prediction · 9 Feb 2012 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 9 Feb 2012 At a gold price of $1,750 per ounce at the time of writing, the world's gold stock is worth about $9.6 trillion. Factual · 9 Feb 2012 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 9 Feb 2012 An individual taxed at an average 25% earning 5.7% on Treasury bills over 47 years would have had zero real income after taxes and inflation. Factual · 9 Feb 2012 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 9 Feb 2012 Berkshire holds significant amounts of currency-based investments, primarily short-term ones. Factual · 9 Feb 2012 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 9 Feb 2012 The world's gold stock is about 170,000 metric tons. Factual · 9 Feb 2012 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 9 Feb 2012 Buffett said he believes that over any extended period, investing in businesses, whether owned in their entirety or through sizable holdings of marketable stocks, will prove to be the runaway winner among the three investment categories he examined. Prediction · 9 Feb 2012 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 9 Feb 2012 Over the past century, these instruments destroyed the purchasing power of investors in many countries even as interest and principal were paid on time. Factual · 9 Feb 2012 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 9 Feb 2012 The destruction of investors' purchasing power by these instruments will forever recur. Prediction · 9 Feb 2012 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 9 Feb 2012 A tax-free institution would have needed 4.3% annual interest from bond investments over the period described, during which it came to take $7 to buy what $1 had bought, simply to maintain its purchasing power. Factual · 9 Feb 2012 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 15 Aug 2011 The tax burdens of the other 20 people in Buffett's office ranged from 33 to 41 percent and averaged 36 percent. Factual · 15 Aug 2011 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 15 Aug 2011 The mega-rich in the US continue to receive extraordinary tax breaks, as of August 2011. Factual · 15 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 15 Aug 2011 Some investment managers among the mega-rich earn billions of dollars from their work. Factual · 15 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 15 Aug 2011 The mega-rich pay income taxes at 15 percent on most of their earnings but pay practically nothing in payroll taxes. Factual · 15 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 15 Aug 2011 Buffett's 2010 federal tax payment was 17.4 percent of his taxable income, a lower percentage than that paid by any of the other 20 people in his office. Factual · 15 Aug 2011 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 15 Aug 2011 Some mega-rich investment managers who earn billions are allowed to classify their income as carried interest, which is taxed at a 15 percent rate. Factual · 15 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 15 Aug 2011 Warren Buffett's 2010 federal tax bill, including income tax and payroll taxes paid by and on behalf of him, was $6,938,744. Factual · 15 Aug 2011 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 15 Aug 2011 Holders of stock index futures for 10 minutes have 60 percent of their gain taxed at 15 percent, as if they were long-term investors. Factual · 15 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 23 Sep 2010 People like the 23 people who were given a diploma that day, and big business, will take "us" out of "this", the situation the surrounding remarks discuss. Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 23 Sep 2010 Berkshire's carpet, brick and insulation businesses have recovered less than 61 percent from their lows but are recovering. Factual · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 23 Sep 2010 Berkshire's businesses are currently adding very few employees. Factual · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 23 Sep 2010 Public sentiment turned very sour over the three to five months before September 2010. Factual · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 23 Sep 2010 The US economy will eventually get out of the recession, though not for a while. Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 23 Sep 2010 The United States will go forward over time. Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 23 Sep 2010 Huge stimulus during World War II took the US out of the Depression. Factual · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 23 Sep 2010 The course gave 23 students a crash course in subjects useful for running their small businesses. Factual · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 23 Sep 2010 Buffett said he did not think the expiring tax cuts would end up being extended for no one, i.e. he expected some to be extended. Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 23 Sep 2010 The US economy will come back regardless of how people feel about Washington. Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 23 Sep 2010 The US federal deficit in 2010 is about nine percent of GDP. Factual · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 23 Sep 2010 Berkshire's railroad business (BNSF) shipments are 61 percent of the way back up from the recession bottom toward the prior peak. Factual · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 23 Sep 2010 The US will get out of its sour sentiment toward Washington, though he is unsure how. Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2010 In 2006 Warren Buffett committed to gradually give all his Berkshire Hathaway stock to philanthropic foundations. Factual · 2010 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Promise 2010 Warren Buffett will continue to distribute about 4% of the Berkshire shares he retains each year. Promise · 2010 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 2010 About 20% of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway shares have been distributed to date, including shares given by his late wife Susan Buffett. Factual · 2010 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Promise 2010 None of Warren Buffett's pledged money will go to endowments; it will be spent on current needs. Promise · 2010 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 2010 Warren Buffett and Bill and Melinda Gates are asking hundreds of rich Americans to pledge at least 50% of their wealth to charity. Factual · 2010 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not yet due Promise 2010 More than 99% of Warren Buffett's wealth will go to philanthropy during his lifetime or at death. Promise · 2010 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Promise 2010 At the latest, proceeds from all of Warren Buffett's Berkshire shares will be spent for philanthropic purposes within 10 years after his estate is settled. Promise · 2010 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 2007 Buffett said he made a deal with Jack in a few minutes, waiving an audit, due diligence or anything else that would give Jack an opportunity to reconsider. Factual · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2007 Large future gains in Berkshire's non-insurance earnings will come only if it makes major, sensible acquisitions. Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 2007 Buffett said he believed GEICO could save money on insurance for at least half of the Berkshire shareholders who checked their existing insurance with it. Factual · 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 2007 Berkshire's partners in owning MidAmerican Energy are Walter Scott, Dave Sokol and Greg Abel. Factual · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 2007 Buffett said 35 university classes would come to Omaha for sessions with him in the 2006-2007 school year, and that he takes almost all visiting students, in aggregate more than 2,000, to lunch at Gorat's. Factual · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2007 Buffett's 2007 federal and state income taxes will be exactly what they would have been had he not made his 2007 charitable contributions. Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2007 The decline in Buffalo News profits will almost certainly continue. Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 2007 HomeServices will almost certainly be much larger a decade from 2007. Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 2007 Buffett said Berkshire believed its $16.9 billion gain in net worth during 2006 was a record one-year gain for any American business, leaving aside boosts from mergers. Factual · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2007 Berkshire is likely to continue earning significant overall profits from mispriced derivatives despite occasional losses. Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 2007 Americans will live better ten or twenty years after 2007 than they do today, despite the unwise course of U.S. borrowing. Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2007 As U.S. trade problems worsen, the dollar is highly likely to weaken over time. Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 2007 The overall insurance industry had a terrific year in 2006. Factual · 2007 Economics and markets
Own records only Promise 2007 Any shareholder coming from outside the U.S. or Canada will be given a special credential and instructions for attending the reception. Promise · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 2007 Berkshire has done many retroactive reinsurance transactions, a multiple of the number and amount of such policies entered into by any other insurer. Factual · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 2007 Buffett said in 2007 that, fifty years earlier, Walter was the only investment manager he recommended to a St. Louis family looking for an honest and able investment manager. Factual · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2007 Berkshire's business performance will determine its stock price, and most of the time the stock will sell in a zone of reasonableness. Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 2007 Berkshire's results from its bread-and-butter insurance lines will deteriorate in 2007, though Buffett said he thought they would remain satisfactory. Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Guidance 2007 After the Equitas transaction, Berkshire's annual DCRA cost will initially increase to about $450 million a year. Guidance · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 2007 In 1967 Buffett had no expectation that Berkshire's float would develop as it has. Factual · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2007 Berkshire's insurance operations will periodically have bad years. Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2007 Buffett said he believed Berkshire's other insurance operations would clear the underwriting-gain hurdle needed for overall float to be cost-free in many, if not most, years. Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2007 Executive compensation reform will occur only if the largest institutional shareholders demand a fresh look at the whole system. Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 2007 After reviewing the facts in the spring of 2006, Buffett and Ajit concluded that Equitas was likely to survive. Factual · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 2007 Buffett's thinking about the disposition of his Berkshire shares is very unlikely to change in a material way. Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 2007 Taxes had nothing to do with Buffett's decision to give away his Berkshire shares or its timing. Factual · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Prediction 2007 Unrelenting pressures will cause the Buffalo News's profit margins to slide. Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 2007 Berkshire issues no incentive payoffs to CEOs that are unrelated to the business performance they control. Factual · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2007 The math of the 2-and-20 fee arrangement is certain to make investors poorer over time than they would have been without it. Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 2007 Buffett said he believed that at some point in the future U.S. workers and voters would find the annual "tribute" paid abroad so onerous that there would be a severe political backlash. Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Own records only Factual 2007 Berkshire has three outstanding candidates to replace Buffett as CEO, as he has previously told shareholders. Factual · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Back to the list

Warren Buffett

Open its page

Factual Economics and markets

“World War II, we had a huge stimulus and it-- it took us out of-- a depression.”

Warren Buffett, Berkshire chairman 23 September 2010 CNBC Transcript: Becky Quick speaks with Warren Buffett (CNBC)

Huge stimulus during World War II took the US out of the Depression.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

This is a historical-economic causal claim, judged by the consensus of economic historians. True: the mainstream view holds that the massive fiscal spending of World War II was the main force that ended the Great Depression in the US. Mostly true: the consensus treats wartime spending as a major or decisive factor, while noting that recovery was already under way before the war or that monetary factors also mattered. Mixed: scholars are substantially divided on whether war spending, rather than other factors (for example, monetary expansion after 1933), ended the Depression. Mostly false: the dominant research holds that recovery came mainly from other causes, so the claim overstates the war's role. False: the evidence shows that wartime spending did not contribute to ending the Depression.

Evidence

  1. World War II Fiscal Policies and the End of the Great Depression | The Journal of Economic History | Cambridge Core Cambridge Core (The Journal of Economic History)
    “Fiscal policies were not the most important factor in the 1933 through 1940 phase of the recovery, but they became the most important factor after 1940, when the recovery was less than half-complete.”
  2. What Ended the Great Depression? The Journal of Economic History (Christina D. Romer, University of California, Berkeley) · December 1992
    “contributed almost nothing to the recovery before 1942.”
  3. What Ended the Great Depression? The Journal of Economic History (Christina D. Romer, University of California, Berkeley) · December 1992
    “Thus, World War II may indeed have helped to end the Great Depression in the United States, but its expansionary benefits worked initially through monetary developments rather than”

Reasoning

On checking, the evidence does not settle the claim under its criteria.

Cite this claim

Warren Buffett, “Huge stimulus during World War II took the US out of the Depression.” (said 23 September 2010). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_d2c76efb6705, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_d2c76efb6705

Claims without a verdict

Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for Warren Buffett? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.