ClaimsWarren Buffett

“World War II, we had a huge stimulus and it-- it took us out of-- a depression.”

Warren Buffett, Berkshire chairman 23 September 2010 CNBC Transcript: Becky Quick speaks with Warren Buffett (CNBC) archived copy

Factual Economics and markets

Huge stimulus during World War II took the US out of the Depression.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

This is a historical-economic causal claim, judged by the consensus of economic historians. True: the mainstream view holds that the massive fiscal spending of World War II was the main force that ended the Great Depression in the US. Mostly true: the consensus treats wartime spending as a major or decisive factor, while noting that recovery was already under way before the war or that monetary factors also mattered. Mixed: scholars are substantially divided on whether war spending, rather than other factors (for example, monetary expansion after 1933), ended the Depression. Mostly false: the dominant research holds that recovery came mainly from other causes, so the claim overstates the war's role. False: the evidence shows that wartime spending did not contribute to ending the Depression.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (3)

  1. E1 World War II Fiscal Policies and the End of the Great Depression | The Journal of Economic History | Cambridge Core Cambridge Core (The Journal of Economic History)

    “Fiscal policies were not the most important factor in the 1933 through 1940 phase of the recovery, but they became the most important factor after 1940, when the recovery was less than half-complete.”
  2. E2 What Ended the Great Depression? The Journal of Economic History (Christina D. Romer, University of California, Berkeley) · December 1992

    “contributed almost nothing to the recovery before 1942.”
  3. E3 What Ended the Great Depression? The Journal of Economic History (Christina D. Romer, University of California, Berkeley) · December 1992

    “Thus, World War II may indeed have helped to end the Great Depression in the United States, but its expansionary benefits worked initially through monetary developments rather than”

Reasoning

On checking, the evidence does not settle the claim under its criteria.

Cite this claim

Warren Buffett, “Huge stimulus during World War II took the US out of the Depression.” (said 23 September 2010). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_d2c76efb6705, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_d2c76efb6705

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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More factual claims by Warren Buffett

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    Berkshire has created an insurance structure that did not exist when Ajit Jain joined in 1986.

  2. Mostly true Factual 4 May 2024
    “we offered a solution in a couple of days to something that was getting close to the brink.”

    Buffett said Berkshire offered a solution within a couple of days to something in Canada that was getting close to the brink.

  3. Mixed Factual 15 December 2020
    “big businesses, generally have done very well about travel and entertainment”

    Big businesses have generally done very well, with travel and entertainment mentioned in a way the quote leaves unclear, though they still have difficulties.

  4. Mostly true Factual 15 December 2020
    “the big ones have done terrifically”

    Large food manufacturers have done terrifically during the pandemic.

  5. Resolved true Factual 15 December 2020
    “we've shut down a lot of people in this, in this particular induced recession and others are prospering”

    The pandemic-induced recession has shut down many people's businesses while others are prospering.

All of them

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