ClaimsPeople

Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett led Berkshire Hathaway as chairman from 1970 and as CEO until January 1, 2026, and now serves as chairman emeritus and a board member.

1,556 claims collected, 281 researched, 78 resolved. Report of 5 November 2026, method 0.1.0+28da144b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    85 79 91

    High confidence, 51 factual claims resolved. From 14 documents, 2001 to 2026; 15 documents sampled from 31 candidates found.

    Not scored: 51 unresolvable, 45 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    78 65 89

    Low confidence, 14 predictions resolved. From 6 documents, 2001 to 2024; 15 documents sampled from 31 candidates found.

    Not scored: 71 unresolvable, 2 checkable only against their own records. 10 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    72 57 85

    Low confidence, 12 promises resolved. From 7 documents, 2001 to 2026; 15 documents sampled from 31 candidates found.

    Not scored: 17 unresolvable, 4 not yet due, 1 checkable only against their own records.

    See the promises

  • Guidance

    A company's own figures for its results over a period, checked against what it then reported.

    Insufficient record: 1 guidance claim resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 2 unresolvable.

    See the guidance

All types combined: 82 (likely 76 to 87, high confidence), from 77 claims: 51 factual claims, 14 predictions, 12 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Warren Buffett's claims

78 claims

78 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Resolved true Factual 18 Sep 2026 Howard Buffett has been a Berkshire director for 33 years. Factual · 18 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Delivered on time Promise 18 Sep 2026 Warren Buffett becomes Chairman Emeritus of Berkshire and remains a director. Promise · 18 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 18 Sep 2026 Howard Buffett succeeds Warren Buffett as Berkshire's Chairman. Factual · 18 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 18 Sep 2026 Warren Buffett has served Berkshire since 1965. Factual · 18 Sep 2026 Their own work or organisation
Delivered on time Promise 10 Nov 2025 Greg Abel will become Berkshire Hathaway's chief executive at the end of 2025. Promise · 10 Nov 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Promise 2025 Buffett will personally match whatever is raised through the sale of the 20 autographed "Charlie" books for the Stephen Center. Promise · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 2025 Warren Buffett received an education at three universities. Factual · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 2025 When buying Forest River, Warren Buffett asked Pete Liegl what his compensation should be and said he would accept whatever Liegl named. Factual · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 2025 Becky Quick and her CNBC crew transmit Berkshire's meetings worldwide and archive much Berkshire-related material. Factual · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 2025 In 2024, 53% of Berkshire's 189 operating businesses reported a decline in earnings, yet Berkshire did better than Buffett expected. Factual · 2025 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 5 May 2024 Buffett said he was responsible for the purchase and for the operation until Greg Abel took over. Factual · 5 May 2024 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Promise 5 May 2024 Poor Charlie's Almanack will be the only book at the Berkshire meeting bookstore next year. Promise · 5 May 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 5 May 2024 Buffett first went to GEICO in 1950. Factual · 5 May 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 5 May 2024 Buffett said that the previous year he had said that developing nuclear weapons let a genie out of the bottle, and that the genie has been doing terrible things lately. Factual · 5 May 2024 Other global risks
Resolved true Factual 5 May 2024 Bill Gates is working on batteries that last longer. Factual · 5 May 2024 Technology
Mostly true Factual 4 May 2024 Berkshire has created an insurance structure that did not exist when Ajit Jain joined in 1986. Factual · 4 May 2024 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 4 May 2024 Buffett said Berkshire offered a solution within a couple of days to something in Canada that was getting close to the brink. Factual · 4 May 2024 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 4 May 2024 Apple will very likely still be Berkshire's largest common stock holding at the end of 2024, despite Berkshire having sold some shares. Prediction · 4 May 2024 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Prediction 4 May 2024 Buffett said he feels very comfortable that the post-Buffett decision will be made by Berkshire's board, which he said has loads of brainpower and a dedication to an unusual institution and will figure things out. Prediction · 4 May 2024 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 4 May 2024 Buffett said he had seen an image of himself, with his voice and wearing the kind of clothes he wears, delivering a message that did not come from him [E1][E2]. Factual · 4 May 2024 AI capabilities
Mixed Factual 15 Dec 2020 Big businesses have generally done very well, with travel and entertainment mentioned in a way the quote leaves unclear, though they still have difficulties. Factual · 15 Dec 2020 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 15 Dec 2020 The pandemic-induced recession has shut down many people's businesses while others are prospering. Factual · 15 Dec 2020 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 15 Dec 2020 Buffett said he attended the first graduation of the Small Business Program, which he credited to Goldman Sachs, at LaGuardia Community College about 10 years before he spoke in December 2020. Factual · 15 Dec 2020 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 15 Dec 2020 Large food manufacturers have done terrifically during the pandemic. Factual · 15 Dec 2020 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said he thinks those in control will end up going for a less dramatic tax change than they might like, because they don't want to spend the time and political capital getting it done. Prediction · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 27 Feb 2017 In 1963, during American Express's Salad Oil Scandal, Buffett visited restaurants to see how people used the American Express card, an approach he first used then. Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 27 Feb 2017 Berkshire Hathaway does not make hostile takeover bids. Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Delivered on time Promise 27 Feb 2017 Berkshire will run the same NCAA bracket contest among its employees in 2017 as it did in 2016. Promise · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 27 Feb 2017 Berkshire closed its purchase of $3 billion of Dow Chemical preferred stock in April 2009, when the market had collapsed. Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Factual 27 Feb 2017 Buffett said Berkshire tried to time its sales of Dow Chemical stock once it rose above the conversion price, selling more aggressively as the price rose, because it did not want to own the roughly 72 million common shares. Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 27 Feb 2017 Berkshire's US Air preferred stock had a clause under which unpaid dividends compounded at a good rate. Factual · 27 Feb 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 21 Jul 2016 When Buffett gives away his Berkshire shares, he always converts the Class A voting stock into Class B stock first. Factual · 21 Jul 2016 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 21 Jul 2016 In certain countries there are various ways for workers to participate in company governance. Factual · 21 Jul 2016 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Factual 21 Jul 2016 New constituencies in corporate governance, such as activists, have become stronger over the years. Factual · 21 Jul 2016 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Factual 9 Feb 2012 Berkshire holds significant amounts of currency-based investments, primarily short-term ones. Factual · 9 Feb 2012 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 9 Feb 2012 The world's gold stock is about 170,000 metric tons. Factual · 9 Feb 2012 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 15 Aug 2011 Some investment managers among the mega-rich earn billions of dollars from their work. Factual · 15 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 15 Aug 2011 Some mega-rich investment managers who earn billions are allowed to classify their income as carried interest, which is taxed at a 15 percent rate. Factual · 15 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 15 Aug 2011 Holders of stock index futures for 10 minutes have 60 percent of their gain taxed at 15 percent, as if they were long-term investors. Factual · 15 Aug 2011 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 23 Sep 2010 Public sentiment turned very sour over the three to five months before September 2010. Factual · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 23 Sep 2010 The US economy will eventually get out of the recession, though not for a while. Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 23 Sep 2010 The course gave 23 students a crash course in subjects useful for running their small businesses. Factual · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 23 Sep 2010 Buffett said he did not think the expiring tax cuts would end up being extended for no one, i.e. he expected some to be extended. Prediction · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 23 Sep 2010 The US federal deficit in 2010 is about nine percent of GDP. Factual · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 23 Sep 2010 Berkshire's railroad business (BNSF) shipments are 61 percent of the way back up from the recession bottom toward the prior peak. Factual · 23 Sep 2010 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 2010 In 2006 Warren Buffett committed to gradually give all his Berkshire Hathaway stock to philanthropic foundations. Factual · 2010 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 2010 Warren Buffett and Bill and Melinda Gates are asking hundreds of rich Americans to pledge at least 50% of their wealth to charity. Factual · 2010 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Factual 2007 Berkshire's partners in owning MidAmerican Energy are Walter Scott, Dave Sokol and Greg Abel. Factual · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Prediction 2007 HomeServices will almost certainly be much larger a decade from 2007. Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 2007 Buffett said Berkshire believed its $16.9 billion gain in net worth during 2006 was a record one-year gain for any American business, leaving aside boosts from mergers. Factual · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 2007 The overall insurance industry had a terrific year in 2006. Factual · 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Factual 2007 Buffett said in 2007 that, fifty years earlier, Walter was the only investment manager he recommended to a St. Louis family looking for an honest and able investment manager. Factual · 2007 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 2007 Berkshire's results from its bread-and-butter insurance lines will deteriorate in 2007, though Buffett said he thought they would remain satisfactory. Prediction · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Guidance 2007 After the Equitas transaction, Berkshire's annual DCRA cost will initially increase to about $450 million a year. Guidance · 2007 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Prediction 2007 Unrelenting pressures will cause the Buffalo News's profit margins to slide. Prediction · 2007 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Ron Peltier will likely make more real estate brokerage acquisitions for Berkshire in 2002 and the following years. Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 28 Feb 2002 Historically Berkshire has obtained its insurance float at very low cost, with a cost below zero in about half the years it has operated. Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 28 Feb 2002 Berkshire expects the FINOVA transaction overall to prove satisfactory for Berkshire. Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 28 Feb 2002 Berkshire lost $2 billion to $2.5 billion in the September 11th event without having been paid properly for the risk assumed. Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Prediction 28 Feb 2002 MidAmerican Energy's reported earnings should increase considerably in 2002 because the goodwill amortization charge will disappear under new GAAP rules. Prediction · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 28 Feb 2002 At the parent company level, Berkshire makes no charitable contributions except those designated by shareholders. Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Factual 28 Feb 2002 Buffett previously assured shareholders that General Re was underwriting with discipline, and that assurance proved wrong. Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 28 Feb 2002 Buffett said the year he was reporting on was Berkshire's worst year in float cost since 1984, a result that he said Berkshire to a significant degree brought upon itself. Factual · 28 Feb 2002 Economics and markets
Mostly true Promise 28 Feb 2002 Buffett will keep well over 99% of his net worth in Berkshire. Promise · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Promise 28 Feb 2002 Buffett and Munger will not take cash compensation, restricted stock or option grants that would make their results superior to shareholders'. Promise · 28 Feb 2002 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 28 Feb 2001 Berkshire's practice of keeping most shoe production in domestic factories has cost its shoe businesses heavily. Factual · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 28 Feb 2001 GEICO's policyholder growth slowed to a halt as 2000 progressed. Factual · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Prediction 28 Feb 2001 Buffett said Berkshire was confident that EJA (NetJets) would remain the world leader in fractional ownership in planes flying, service quality and safety standards. Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 28 Feb 2001 GEICO's underwriting loss in 2000 produced a float cost of 6.1%. Factual · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Promise 28 Feb 2001 Because these transactions, which typically come in large chunks, can materially distort the company's figures, it will tell readers about them as they occur. Promise · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 28 Feb 2001 Berkshire paid for the 1993 Dexter acquisition using Berkshire shares. Factual · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Promise 28 Feb 2001 Chess champion Patrick Wolff will play blindfolded against all comers in the mall at the 2001 Berkshire meeting weekend. Promise · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Prediction 28 Feb 2001 For the next couple of years the Civic Auditorium will be Berkshire's only venue choice for its annual meeting. Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Prediction 28 Feb 2001 Omaha will shortly have a new Convention Center with ample parking. Prediction · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 28 Feb 2001 In 2000 Berkshire had an insurance underwriting loss of $1.6 billion, giving a float cost of 6%. Factual · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Promise 28 Feb 2001 Berkshire will hold its annual meeting at the Civic Auditorium on Saturday, April 28, 2001. Promise · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Promise 28 Feb 2001 If the new Convention Center is available, Buffett will poll shareholders on whether to return to a Monday annual meeting. Promise · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Promise 28 Feb 2001 Buffett and Charlie Munger will answer shareholder questions until 3:30 p.m. at the 2001 meeting, except for a noon break. Promise · 28 Feb 2001 Their own work or organisation
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Warren Buffett

Open its page

Promise Their own work or organisation

“I will poll shareholders to see whether you wish to return to a Monday meeting.”

Warren Buffett, Berkshire chairman 28 February 2001 Chairman's Letter (2000) (Berkshire Hathaway)

If the new Convention Center is available, Buffett will poll shareholders on whether to return to a Monday annual meeting.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

The evidence is the person's or their organisation's own records.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

This promise depends on a condition: the new Omaha convention center (Qwest Center, which opened around 2003) becoming available. True: once it was available, Buffett formally asked shareholders (by a ballot, a questionnaire, or a show of hands or survey at a meeting) whether they wanted to return to a Monday meeting. Mostly true: the poll was taken, but in a slightly different form or at a slightly different time than described. Mostly false: the meeting day was settled without any shareholder poll, though Buffett mentioned shareholder preferences informally. False: the center became available and Buffett's letters or meeting records show the meeting day was decided with no poll of shareholders. If the center never became available for the meeting, the promise was not tested.

Evidence

  1. [PDF] 2002pdf.pdf - BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. Berkshire Hathaway Inc. · 21 February 2003 Own record
    “Using the enclosed special ballot, please vote for your preference – but only if you are likely to attend in the future.”
  2. [PDF] 2002pdf.pdf - BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC. Berkshire Hathaway Inc. · 21 February 2003 Own record
    “We will make the Saturday/Monday decision based upon a count of shareholders, not shares.”
  3. 2003ltr.pdf Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Own record
    “Saturday won by 2 to 1. It will be a while before shareholder democracy resurfaces at Berkshire.”

Reasoning

Berkshire's 2002 shareholder letter, dated February 21, 2003, enclosed a special ballot and asked shareholders who were likely to attend to vote for their preference (E1). It said the Saturday/Monday decision would be made by counting shareholders, not shares (E2). The 2003 letter reported that Saturday won by 2 to 1 (E3), so the poll was held and its result published. The evidence comes only from Berkshire's own letters, but those letters contain the ballot and its results, so they show the promised poll took place. There was no deadline, so timing is not assessed.

Cite this claim

Warren Buffett, “If the new Convention Center is available, Buffett will poll shareholders on whether to return to a Monday annual meeting.” (said 28 February 2001). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_d0472bd7dab3, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_d0472bd7dab3

Claims without a verdict

Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for Warren Buffett? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.