ClaimsPeople

Steven Pinker

Steven Pinker is listed by Harvard as the Johnstone Family Professor of Psychology, and he is the author of widely read books including The Language Instinct, The Better Angels of Our Nature and Enlightenment Now.

879 claims collected, 167 researched, 99 resolved. Report of 5 November 2026, method 0.1.0+28da144b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    74 68 79

    High confidence, 97 factual claims resolved. From 19 documents, 2002 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 36 candidates found.

    Not scored: 49 unresolvable, 2 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    Insufficient record: 1 prediction resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 12 unresolvable. 2 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 1 promise resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    Not scored: 2 unresolvable.

    See the promises

All types combined: 74 (likely 68 to 79, high confidence), from 97 claims: 97 factual claims. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Steven Pinker's claims

1 claim

1 claim, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Resolved true Prediction 30 Dec 2022 ChatGPT will not put Google Search out of business in the near term. Prediction · 30 Dec 2022 Technology
Back to the list

Steven Pinker

Open its page

Prediction Technology

“Will ChatGPT put Google Search out of business? Not yet.”

Steven Pinker, posting on X 30 December 2022 Post by @sapinker on X, 2022-12-30 (X)

ChatGPT will not put Google Search out of business in the near term.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

What would count as true or false

Judge at a near-term horizon of 2023-12-31. True: Google Search remained in operation as a major search engine with no collapse in use attributable to ChatGPT (e.g. still holding the large majority of global search market share per StatCounter or similar, and Alphabet search revenue not collapsing). Mostly true: Google Search remained in business but lost a noticeable, though not crippling, amount of share or traffic to ChatGPT. Mixed: Google Search lost a large share of its usage or revenue to ChatGPT while staying in operation. Mostly false: Google Search was shut down or reduced to a marginal product in that period, partly for reasons tied to ChatGPT. False: ChatGPT put Google Search out of business (shut down or made marginal) by the horizon.

Evidence

  1. No, ChatGPT isn't stealing Google's search market share Search Engine Land · 9 November 2023
    “Google is still as dominant as it has been since 2015.”
  2. Bing loses search market share to Google despite ChatGPT integration TechSpot · 13 November 2023
    “The situation is even more skewed globally, with Google commanding a 91.55 percent market share in October 2023, while Bing could only muster 3.11 percent.”
  3. goog-20231231 U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Alphabet Inc. Form 10-K) · 31 December 2023
    “Google Search and other properties, including revenues from traffic generated by search distribution partners who use Google.com as their default search in browsers, toolbars, etc.”
  4. New Research: Google Search Grew 20%+ in 2024; receives ~373X more searches than ChatGPT SparkToro · 11 March 2025
    “In 2024 Google received ~373 times as many searches as ChatGPT.”

Reasoning

E2 reports Google with 91.55 percent of global search market share in October 2023, against 3.11 percent for Bing, which its title says lost share despite ChatGPT integration. E1 (November 2023) says Google remained as dominant as it had been since 2015. E3, Alphabet's 10-K for the year ending 2023-12-31, still lists Google Search as a revenue line. Together these show that at the 2023-12-31 horizon, Google Search was still in operation as the dominant search engine and had not collapsed because of ChatGPT.

Cite this claim

Steven Pinker, “ChatGPT will not put Google Search out of business in the near term.” (said 30 December 2022). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_328a45694663, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_328a45694663

Claims without a verdict

Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for Steven Pinker? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.