ChatGPT will not put Google Search out of business in the near term.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
What would count as true or false
Judge at a near-term horizon of 2023-12-31. True: Google Search remained in operation as a major search engine with no collapse in use attributable to ChatGPT (e.g. still holding the large majority of global search market share per StatCounter or similar, and Alphabet search revenue not collapsing). Mostly true: Google Search remained in business but lost a noticeable, though not crippling, amount of share or traffic to ChatGPT. Mixed: Google Search lost a large share of its usage or revenue to ChatGPT while staying in operation. Mostly false: Google Search was shut down or reduced to a marginal product in that period, partly for reasons tied to ChatGPT. False: ChatGPT put Google Search out of business (shut down or made marginal) by the horizon.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 No, ChatGPT isn't stealing Google's search market share Search Engine Land · 9 November 2023
“Google is still as dominant as it has been since 2015.”
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E2 Bing loses search market share to Google despite ChatGPT integration TechSpot · 13 November 2023
“The situation is even more skewed globally, with Google commanding a 91.55 percent market share in October 2023, while Bing could only muster 3.11 percent.”
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E3 goog-20231231 U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Alphabet Inc. Form 10-K) · 31 December 2023
“Google Search and other properties, including revenues from traffic generated by search distribution partners who use Google.com as their default search in browsers, toolbars, etc.”
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E4 New Research: Google Search Grew 20%+ in 2024; receives ~373X more searches than ChatGPT SparkToro · 11 March 2025
“In 2024 Google received ~373 times as many searches as ChatGPT.”
Reasoning
E2 reports Google with 91.55 percent of global search market share in October 2023, against 3.11 percent for Bing, which its title says lost share despite ChatGPT integration. E1 (November 2023) says Google remained as dominant as it had been since 2015. E3, Alphabet's 10-K for the year ending 2023-12-31, still lists Google Search as a revenue line. Together these show that at the 2023-12-31 horizon, Google Search was still in operation as the dominant search engine and had not collapsed because of ChatGPT.
Cite this claim
Steven Pinker, “ChatGPT will not put Google Search out of business in the near term.” (said 30 December 2022). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_328a45694663, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_328a45694663
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
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