ClaimsPeople

Scott Alexander

Scott Alexander is a writer known for his blogs Astral Codex Ten and Slate Star Codex and for fiction including Unsong.

775 claims collected, 234 researched, 81 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+8bea457b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    80 72 88

    Medium confidence, 35 factual claims resolved. From 10 documents, 2014 to 2026; 15 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 46 unresolvable, 9 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    70 62 78

    Medium confidence, 44 predictions resolved. From 7 documents, 2016 to 2025; 15 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 67 unresolvable, 10 checkable only against their own records. 19 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 2 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    See the promises

All types combined: 75 (likely 69 to 80, high confidence), from 79 claims: 35 factual claims, 44 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Scott Alexander's claims

9 claims

9 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly true Prediction 3 Apr 2025 The authors of the scenario think coding is what will start the intelligence explosion. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI capabilities
Mostly true Prediction 3 Apr 2025 In the AI 2027 scenario, as AI labs become more capable they tell the government, seeking government contracts and support. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Prediction 3 Apr 2025 In the AI 2027 scenario, the government sees via cyber warfare that AIs are as capable as the best human hackers but deployable at huge scale. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Prediction 20 Feb 2023 Scaling AI models will continue to produce gains, though less obviously than in the past five years. Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI capabilities
Mostly true Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Global existential risks will hopefully not be a big part of the 2018-2023 period. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other global risks
Mostly true Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The crisis of the Republican Party will turn out to have been overblown. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Mostly true Prediction 6 Jan 2017 No announcement of a genetically engineered human baby or credible plan for one will occur in 2017. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Biosecurity
Mostly true Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that fewer refugees would be admitted in 2017 than in 2016. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other
Mostly true Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that there would be no major intifada in Israel in 2016 (over 250 Israeli deaths, excluding a Cast Lead style war). Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
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Scott Alexander

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Prediction AI capabilities

“Our scenario focuses on coding in particular because we think coding is what starts the intelligence explosion.”

Scott Alexander, podcast guest 3 April 2025 AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo (Dwarkesh Podcast)

The authors of the scenario think coding is what will start the intelligence explosion.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

The second judge said resolved true; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

The evidence is the person's or their organisation's own records.

What would count as true or false

Treat this as a statement of the AI 2027 authors' stated view as of 2025-04-03, not a forecast with a horizon. True: the AI 2027 scenario and its supporting materials focus on coding and say that automating coding (AI R&D) is what triggers the intelligence explosion. Mostly true: they emphasise coding as the main driver but frame it with a minor difference, e.g. as 'AI research automation' that centres on coding. Mixed: coding is one of several drivers given roughly equal weight. Mostly false: coding appears but the materials name some other driver as primary. False: the authors' materials name a different trigger or do not emphasise coding. Whether coding actually starts an intelligence explosion is not tested.

Evidence

  1. Introducing AI 2027 Astral Codex Ten (Scott Alexander) · 3 April 2025 Own record
    “In 2027, coding agents will finally be good enough to substantially boost AI R&D itself, causing an intelligence explosion that plows through the human level sometime in mid-2027 and reaches superintelligence by early 2028.”
  2. AI 2027: What Superintelligence Looks Like — LessWrong LessWrong (cross-post of the AI Futures Project scenario by Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander and others) · 3 April 2025 Own record
    “Although models are improving on a wide range of skills, one stands out: OpenBrain focuses on AIs that can speed up AI research.”
  3. AI 2027: What Superintelligence Looks Like — LessWrong LessWrong (cross-post of the AI Futures Project scenario by Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander and others) · 3 April 2025 Own record
    “Agent-1 had been optimized for AI R&D tasks, hoping to initiate an intelligence explosion”

Reasoning

In the scenario text, the company OpenBrain focuses on AIs that can speed up AI research (E3), and Agent-1 was optimised for AI R&D tasks in the hope of starting an intelligence explosion (E4). The authors' summary of the scenario (E2) says coding agents that boost AI R&D are what cause the intelligence explosion. So the materials present AI research automation, with coding as its main early route, as the trigger. Scott Alexander's post names coding agents that boost AI R&D as the cause of the intelligence explosion (E2), while the scenario text frames the focus as AI R&D (E3, E4); that fits the 'mostly true' criterion of AI research automation that centres on coding.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “The authors of the scenario think coding is what will start the intelligence explosion.” (said 3 April 2025). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_642721434033, method 0.1.0+8bea457b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_642721434033

Claims without a verdict

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