ClaimsPeople

Scott Alexander

Scott Alexander is a writer known for his blogs Astral Codex Ten and Slate Star Codex and for fiction including Unsong.

775 claims collected, 234 researched, 81 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+8bea457b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    80 72 88

    Medium confidence, 35 factual claims resolved. From 10 documents, 2014 to 2026; 15 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 46 unresolvable, 9 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    70 62 78

    Medium confidence, 44 predictions resolved. From 7 documents, 2016 to 2025; 15 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 67 unresolvable, 10 checkable only against their own records. 19 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 2 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    See the promises

All types combined: 75 (likely 69 to 80, high confidence), from 79 claims: 35 factual claims, 44 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Scott Alexander's claims

19 claims

19 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Own records only Factual 19 Oct 2026 Scott Alexander is continuing to work on modeling, and maybe later automating, parts of AI grantmaking. Factual · 19 Oct 2026 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 3 Apr 2025 Scott Alexander discovers a new blogger he is super excited about about once a year. Factual · 3 Apr 2025 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 3 Apr 2025 Typically about 1% of the people who read a blog's viral hit stick around as regular readers, based on Slate Star Codex's early growth. Factual · 3 Apr 2025 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Prediction 3 Apr 2025 In the AI 2027 scenario, the government does not fully nationalize the AI companies but gradually brings them closer to the government. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Own records only Factual 10 Dec 2024 Scott Alexander limited how much he discussed punishment-as-retribution in his original prison post because it is a culture-war scissor topic. Factual · 10 Dec 2024 Philosophy, ethics and society
Own records only Factual 14 Feb 2021 Scott Alexander was warned by people "in the know" that the NYT would publish something as negative as possible about him once it had an excuse. Factual · 14 Feb 2021 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 14 Feb 2021 Scott Alexander met Peter Thiel once at a party, long before Trump was in the news, and exchanged about two sentences with him. Factual · 14 Feb 2021 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 21 Jan 2021 Scott Alexander lost a five-digit sum in advertising and Patreon fees. Factual · 21 Jan 2021 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 24 Jun 2020 The New York Times reporter told Scott Alexander that his editor absolutely prohibited writing the story without Alexander's real name and that the reporter considered the story too important to drop. Factual · 24 Jun 2020 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 24 Jun 2020 Scott Alexander discussed with the New York Times reporter why he wanted his real name left out of the story, saying largely what he said in his public post. Factual · 24 Jun 2020 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that he would not finish more than 25% of a new novel by the end of 2018. Prediction · Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that he would not attend the New York Solstice in 2018. Prediction · Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Slate Star Codex would get more hits in 2018 than in 2017. Prediction · Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander will take the job he is currently expecting to take. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that he would not score at or above the 95th percentile when he got his 2017 PRITE scores back. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander will attend the Bay Area Solstice in the coming year (2017). Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander will pass his Boards in 2017. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander will score at or above the 95th percentile on next year's PRITE (psychiatry in-training exam). Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander will attend at least one Solstice event in 2016. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
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Scott Alexander

Open its page

Factual Their own work or organisation

“I’m continuing to work on modeling (and maybe one day automating) some parts of AI grantmaking”

Scott Alexander, ACX author 19 October 2026 Open Thread 456 (Astral Codex Ten)

Scott Alexander is continuing to work on modeling, and maybe later automating, parts of AI grantmaking.

Own records only Only the person's or their organisation's own records speak to it, so it is not scored.

Reasoning

His ongoing internal work on grantmaking modeling is known only to him.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Scott Alexander is continuing to work on modeling, and maybe later automating, parts of AI grantmaking.” (said 19 October 2026). Verdict: own records only. Reliability API, claim c_ff8770547b23, method 0.1.0+8bea457b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_ff8770547b23

Claims without a verdict

Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for Scott Alexander? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.