Scott Alexander

Factual · Economics and markets

“It lets people sell futures representing AI company stocks, bet on AI company revenues directly, and a few other things like Epoch Capabilities Index targets.”

Scott Alexander, ACX author · 19 October 2026 · Open Thread 456 (Astral Codex Ten)

MNX lets people sell futures representing AI company stocks, bet on AI company revenues, and trade on targets such as the Epoch Capabilities Index.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

The claim has three parts. As of 2026-10-19, MNX must let users (a) sell or trade futures representing AI company stocks, (b) bet on AI company revenues, and (c) trade on other targets such as Epoch Capabilities Index thresholds. True if MNX's site, documentation or launch announcement shows all three. Mostly true if all three are present but a minor detail differs, for example the instruments are called contracts rather than futures. Mixed if roughly half the features hold, for example two of the three. Mostly false if only one feature is present. False if MNX offers none of them, or did not exist or operate as described at that date.

Evidence

1. MegaETH-powered MNX goes live with pre-IPO futures for OpenAI, Anthropic and DeepSeek CoinDesk · 13 October 2026

   “MNX, is a new crypto exchange that offers futures contracts that let investors speculate on the valuations of private artificial intelligence companies including OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepSeek and Moonshot.”

2. MegaETH-powered MNX goes live with pre-IPO futures for OpenAI, Anthropic and DeepSeek CoinDesk · 13 October 2026

   “MNX also aims to offer markets around the wider AI economy, including company revenue, employment, housing, the AI supply chain and computing capacity.”

3. MNX Docs MNX Markets, Inc. (MNX Docs) · 28 October 2026

   “Settlement rules for the OPENAI, ANTHROPIC, DEEPSEEK, and MOONSHOT valuation futures.”

4. MNX MNX Markets, Inc. · 25 September 2026

   “OpenAI + Anthropic 2027 revenue LABREVOpenAI + Anthropic 2027 revenue”

Reasoning

The evidence shows MNX offering valuation futures on AI companies [E1][E3] and a market on AI company revenue [E4], but no evidence item addresses Epoch Capabilities Index markets either way. Without the third feature, the evidence cannot settle whether the claim meets the criteria for mostly true (all three features) or mixed (two of three).

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “MNX lets people sell futures representing AI company stocks, bet on AI company revenues, and trade on targets such as the Epoch Capabilities Index.” (said 19 October 2026). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_081b849183f6, method 0.1.0+8bea457b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_081b849183f6