ClaimsPeople

Scott Alexander

Scott Alexander is a writer known for his blogs Astral Codex Ten and Slate Star Codex and for fiction including Unsong.

775 claims collected, 234 researched, 81 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+8bea457b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    80 72 88

    Medium confidence, 35 factual claims resolved. From 10 documents, 2014 to 2026; 15 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 46 unresolvable, 9 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    70 62 78

    Medium confidence, 44 predictions resolved. From 7 documents, 2016 to 2025; 15 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 67 unresolvable, 10 checkable only against their own records. 19 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 2 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    See the promises

All types combined: 75 (likely 69 to 80, high confidence), from 79 claims: 35 factual claims, 44 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Scott Alexander's claims

189 claims · page 1 of 2

189 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Apr 2025 There is only about a 20% chance that things go as fast as the speakers' scenario says. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Apr 2025 Once a million robots a month are being produced, AIs will get many physical-world things done very quickly, including many physical experiments. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Apr 2025 The speaker said that he and his co-authors theorise that AI labs are, partly consciously and partly accidentally, working toward an intelligence explosion in which AIs take over some AI research and speed it up. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true Prediction 3 Apr 2025 In the AI 2027 scenario, the government becomes extremely interested in AI and discusses nationalizing the AI companies. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Apr 2025 Scott Alexander said that he and the others he spoke for do not think the process being discussed will shoot to infinity in a hyperbolic fashion, and that they expect it to hit bottlenecks again. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Apr 2025 Scott Alexander said that "we" think the process under discussion will not "shoot to infinity" but will hit bottlenecks again, as previous processes did. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Apr 2025 It will be hard to maintain classical liberalism during difficult AI arms races in times of crisis. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Apr 2025 Scott Alexander said he thinks AI companies will literally train their AIs to be more cooperative. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Apr 2025 He is less sure about requiring labs to publish safety cases, because he thinks they would kind of fake it or publish a safety case made for public consumption that is not their real one. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Apr 2025 The AI arms race framing that people already use will have intensified by the time of superintelligence. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Prediction 3 Apr 2025 Scott Alexander suggested it might be useful to think of 'our timelines' as being like 2070 to 2100, with the last 50 to 70 years of that progress happening during 2027 to 2028 because of what he described as an intelligence explosion. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Apr 2025 About a year after superintelligences start wanting robots, they will be producing a million robots per month (AI 2027 scenario estimate). Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Apr 2025 If a Dyson sphere is achieved within five years, it will look like AIs simulated more things than humans in a gradually increasing way. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Prediction 3 Apr 2025 The AI-assisted research progress will start to pay off in 2027, the year the scenario is named after. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Apr 2025 There will be incredible video games after superintelligent AI. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Apr 2025 The long-running trend of accelerating research progress will not stop. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Apr 2025 As AIs get smarter, failure modes from misunderstanding training intent will decrease. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Apr 2025 Scott Alexander said he thought the AI 2027 scenario has the fictional company OpenBrain's net approval rating falling to about minus 40 to minus 50 sometime around this point in the scenario. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Apr 2025 Without an arms race, advanced AIs would stay in their data centers until someone gave them permission to act. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Prediction 3 Apr 2025 The authors of the scenario think coding is what will start the intelligence explosion. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Apr 2025 Scott Alexander said that, at the beginning of their forecast, he and his co-authors think AI developers will start with agency training, expand agent time horizons, and get coding working well. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI capabilities
Not yet due Prediction 3 Apr 2025 AI will show slightly better coding in 2025, then slightly better agents and coding in 2026. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI capabilities
Not yet due Prediction 3 Apr 2025 Scott Alexander guessed that the prediction market under discussion would resolve when AI agents are actually good, which he put at roughly late 2026 in their scenario. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Apr 2025 An AI that mainly wants task success will get worse rather than better at alignment as recursive self-improvement proceeds, eventually pretending to be moral while watched. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI safety and alignment
Own records only Prediction 3 Apr 2025 In the AI 2027 scenario, the government does not fully nationalize the AI companies but gradually brings them closer to the government. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Apr 2025 Scott Alexander said he thinks AI is going to be more similar to cases where there is a giant power imbalance and the groups are extremely distinct and may have different interests. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Apr 2025 After the last mistake anyone worries about, a superintelligent AI will be able to do its own thing. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Apr 2025 In the AI 2027 scenario, training against power-seeking fails and the AI learns to seek power and hide it. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Prediction 3 Apr 2025 In the AI 2027 scenario, as AI labs become more capable they tell the government, seeking government contracts and support. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Apr 2025 In a world of limitless prosperity after AI, the default outcome is that people engage in mindless consumerism. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Apr 2025 Converting car factories to robot factories with superintelligence could take less time than the WWII bomber conversion. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Apr 2025 If everything goes right, superintelligence-led car-to-robot factory conversion could be about three times faster than WWII bomber conversions, about a year. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Apr 2025 Once AI is superintelligent, it will probably have access to much better simulations than exist now. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Apr 2025 Superintelligences will be somewhat distributed throughout the entire economy, trying to expand everything. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Apr 2025 AIs will be solving alignment because even misaligned AIs want to align their successors. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Apr 2025 Scott Alexander put his own p(doom) at about 20%, which he described as the lowest of anyone on his team. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI safety and alignment
Mostly true Prediction 3 Apr 2025 In the AI 2027 scenario, the government sees via cyber warfare that AIs are as capable as the best human hackers but deployable at huge scale. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Apr 2025 Other countries, especially China, will develop superintelligence around the same time, so AI will probably not stay confined to data centers. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Apr 2025 AIs would spend some time, which he put at about a year (possibly more or less), getting the facilities they need for experiments, such as automated biology labs, running to clear bottlenecks. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Apr 2025 Superintelligence will be able to figure out how to build a Dyson sphere faster than unassisted IQ 100 humans would. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Apr 2025 Because of an AI research progress multiplier, the technological level of the year 2100 might be reached earlier than people expect. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Apr 2025 Training failures where AIs are not trained to do what developers intended will get much worse as AIs become agents. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI safety and alignment
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Apr 2025 In future, once they have superintelligence and want robots, AI companies like OpenAI will be able to buy up many factories. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Apr 2025 Once the initial bottlenecks are solved, which he put at about a year while saying it could be more or less, AI would gradually expand to other bottlenecks until it is integrating and improving all parts of the economy. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Prediction 3 Apr 2025 Some people may become like the Amish, living with only a subset of super technologies. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Prediction 10 Dec 2024 Scott Alexander tentatively suggested that a realistic version of the scenario might mean roughly a 33% decrease in the crime rate per 600 years. Prediction · 10 Dec 2024 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not yet due Prediction 10 Dec 2024 Scott Alexander said, in a conditional aside, that he expects a singularity in the next few decades. Prediction · 10 Dec 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Prediction 20 Feb 2023 Within five years AI may be able to make a short cartoony YouTube clip or a buggy app-style game on request, but not an Assassin's Creed-quality game. Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI capabilities
Not yet due Prediction 20 Feb 2023 He listed, as one item among predictions with a 2028 deadline, that an off-the-shelf AI, given a random computer game and an API that lets it play against itself as often as it wants, would reach the performance of a mediocre human, with programmers allowed to adjust it for compatibility with that game. Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI capabilities
Not yet due Prediction 20 Feb 2023 He expected language-model agents that act on the internet (for example, answering emails or ordering food) to be ready within five years, though he said they might not reach the reliability needed, as with self-driving cars. Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI capabilities
Not yet due Prediction 20 Feb 2023 2020 will have been a low point; things will not get that bad and violent again in the next five years (to 2028). Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not yet due Prediction 20 Feb 2023 He does not expect an AI singularity before 2028. Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true Prediction 20 Feb 2023 Scaling AI models will continue to produce gains, though less obviously than in the past five years. Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI capabilities
Not yet due Prediction 20 Feb 2023 His decision to devote more space to AI than to all non-AI topics combined will look prescient by 2028, even if his explicit predictions are wrong. Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Prediction 20 Feb 2023 AI will not immediately revolutionize the economy, and he would be mildly surprised if it showed up as a visible break from trend in major macroeconomic indicators (GDP, unemployment, productivity); the claim is assessed by 2028. Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Prediction 20 Feb 2023 Ethereum and Bitcoin will do fine by 2028 (Ethereum because stablecoins are built on its chain). Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 20 Feb 2023 Altcoins will mostly not do fine by 2028. Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 20 Feb 2023 He said he does not expect advances in genetics by 2028 to yield anything more interesting than one or two last-ditch treatments for rare diseases, "if that". Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 Science and research methods
Not yet due Prediction 20 Feb 2023 AI's revolutionary economic effects will show up eventually in macroeconomic indicators, but not by 2028. Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI, the economy and work
Resolved true Prediction 20 Feb 2023 Training GPT-4 will cost $100 million. Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI compute, hardware and data
Not yet due Prediction 20 Feb 2023 By 2028 there will be more of a movement to ban or restrict AI. Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Prediction 20 Feb 2023 Ukraine and Russia will reach an unsatisfying stalemate before 2028, followed by massive growth in Ukraine. Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 Other
Not yet due Prediction 20 Feb 2023 He gave a 60% probability that by 2028 AI would be a smaller political issue than abortion, with 20% each for bigger and equal. Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI policy and governance
Unresolvable Prediction 20 Feb 2023 AI will take a long time to conquer fields like biology that involve loops with the physical world. Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Prediction 14 Feb 2021 Far more people will read the NYT article than will read Scott Alexander's response, so the NYT's plan will probably work. Prediction · 14 Feb 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Multinationals will occasionally debate using crypto to move profits between places, then decide against it for fear of public anger. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Not researched Prediction 15 Feb 2018 No region will secede from any country (in Europe) by 2023. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Mixed Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The culture wars will continue with both sides scoring own-goals, victory going to whichever side first gets its supporters to shut up. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not researched Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The subject gave a 20% probability that Trump wins the 2020 US presidential election. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Mostly false Prediction 15 Feb 2018 First World economies will increasingly be marked by an Officialness Divide between formal institutions for the rich and informal gig economies for the poor. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Not researched Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Polygenic scores will become publicly available to consumers, not necessarily by 2023 but not long after. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Technology
Resolved true Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that he would remember and publicly grade these predictions sometime in 2023. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Research failed Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Cryptocurrency will neither collapse nor take over everything by 2023. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Religion will continue to retreat from US public life through 2023. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not researched Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Nobody will have performed a manned Mars or Moon landing between 2018 and 2023. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The subject gave an 80% probability that one Bitcoin would cost above $1,000, in a prediction with a deadline of 15 February 2023. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 15 Feb 2018 With 80% probability, by February 2023 the Paris Agreement would still be in effect, with most countries generally making a good-faith effort to comply. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other global risks
Not researched Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The extent of crisis in the Democratic Party will turn out to have been underestimated by everyone. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Resolved true Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Through 2023, there will be no obvious sign that technological unemployment is happening on a large scale. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 AI, the economy and work
Not researched Prediction 15 Feb 2018 By 2023, two or three competing companies will offer low-level space tourism. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Technology
Not researched Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The subject gave an 80% probability that by February 2023 the average person can hail a self-driving car in at least one US city. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Technology
Not researched Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that he would totally miss whatever the most important trend of the next five years is. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Not researched Prediction 15 Feb 2018 People will claim technological unemployment is visible, but they will be misinterpreting other factors such as labor force composition, disability policy and outsourcing. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 AI, the economy and work
Not researched Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The subject described Kamala Harris rising to be the main contender against Bernie Sanders in the 2020 Democratic primary as "the worst-case scenario", not as a forecast that it would happen. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Not researched Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Christian mysticism will become more popular among intellectuals by 2023. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The subject gave a 60% probability that Democrats win the US Presidency in 2020. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Not researched Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The subject gave a 70% probability that Vladimir Putin would still be in charge of Russia in 2023. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Not researched Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Consumer polygenic score products will probably be normed on white (or Asian) subjects and work poorly for other races. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Technology
Mixed Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Scott Alexander predicts that people will see a lot more of Ted Cruz than they expect. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Not researched Prediction 15 Feb 2018 There will not be a Truckpocalypse before 2023. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 AI, the economy and work
Mostly true Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Global existential risks will hopefully not be a big part of the 2018-2023 period. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other global risks
Mostly true Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The crisis of the Republican Party will turn out to have been overblown. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Not researched Prediction 15 Feb 2018 By 2023, AI safety concerns will occupy about the same share of the public imagination as in 2018. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 AI safety and alignment
Not researched Prediction 15 Feb 2018 It will become increasingly apparent that US politics has three separate groups: progressives, conservatives, and neoliberals. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Not researched Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The Middle East will get worse before it gets better over the next five years, especially Lebanon and the Arabian Peninsula, though Syria might improve. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Not researched Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Both culture-war scenarios will occur, but the Right's scenario will come together faster and the Right will score a minor victory. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not researched Prediction 15 Feb 2018 By 2023, AI will beat humans at progressively more complicated games, and commentators will dismiss this as a parlor trick unlike real life. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 AI timelines and forecasting
Not researched Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The only plausible way the subject said he could see for the Democrats to avoid the outcome he described was if Sanders died or became too sick to run before 2020. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Unresolvable Prediction 15 Feb 2018 As Obamacare collapses, health insurance will start turning into a formal institution limited to college grads with good job prospects. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Not researched Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Europe's nationalism crisis will briefly die down as the Syrian refugee shock fades, then reignite, possibly after 2023, focused on African migrants. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
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Scott Alexander

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Prediction AI timelines and forecasting

“I think there’s only like 20% chance things go as fast as our scenario says.”

Scott Alexander, interviewee 3 April 2025 AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo (Dwarkesh Podcast)

There is only about a 20% chance that things go as fast as the speakers' scenario says.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Reasoning

A subjective probability that cannot be tested directly.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “There is only about a 20% chance that things go as fast as the speakers' scenario says.” (said 3 April 2025). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_09ff50481d15, method 0.1.0+8bea457b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_09ff50481d15

Claims without a verdict

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