| Not researched |
Factual |
3 Apr 2025 |
Ozempic was discovered by looking at Gila monster venom.
Factual · 3 Apr 2025 |
Science and research methods |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
3 Apr 2025 |
Once the initial bottlenecks are solved, which he put at about a year while saying it could be more or less, AI would gradually expand to other bottlenecks until it is integrating and improving all parts of the economy.
Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
I think this is just not that hard a problem.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
I think you could think of this as like a chess engine.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
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| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
3 Apr 2025 |
Some people may become like the Amish, living with only a subset of super technologies.
Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
And the way to get the President on their side is to really play up the national security implications.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
It’s interesting because like a lot of areas of life are selected for arrogant people who don’t know their own weaknesses because they’re…
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
I think that it’s a question of what is your default option or what are you comparing it to.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
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| Unresolvable |
Factual |
3 Apr 2025 |
The AI 2027 scenario existed at an early stage as a giant spreadsheet and had not yet been written up.
Factual · 3 Apr 2025 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
I think that’s kind of why all of our policy prescriptions are things like more transparency, get more people involved, try to have lots of…
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
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| Not researched |
Factual |
3 Apr 2025 |
Someone jailbroke Grok into revealing its prompt, which said not to say anything bad about Elon.
Factual · 3 Apr 2025 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
That’s why I say that maybe the limiting factor for so many of these people is courage because everybody I talk to who blogs is within 1%…
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
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| Not researched |
Factual |
3 Apr 2025 |
The speaker's scenario includes AIs asking for special economic zones with most regulations waived, possibly in areas with few humans, such as the desert.
Factual · 3 Apr 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
I feel like Larry Summers, the President would just say “I don’t trust him”.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
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| Not researched |
Factual |
3 Apr 2025 |
OpenAI is currently worth more than all US car companies other than Tesla combined.
Factual · 3 Apr 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Not researched |
Factual |
3 Apr 2025 |
Intelligent humans can do things that less intelligent humans cannot.
Factual · 3 Apr 2025 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not researched |
Factual |
3 Apr 2025 |
Tesla produces about a quarter of a million cars per month, roughly a quarter of a million-unit monthly rate.
Factual · 3 Apr 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
There is going to be something like: predict how Bill Gates would complete this next character or something like that.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
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| Not researched |
Factual |
3 Apr 2025 |
Scott Alexander is the writer and spokesperson for the AI 2027 scenario.
Factual · 3 Apr 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched |
Factual |
3 Apr 2025 |
Scott Alexander said that the forecast he was discussing, which covered the next five years of AI progress, got it almost exactly right.
Factual · 3 Apr 2025 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
10 Dec 2024 |
Why is it so hard to fill these positions?
Not checkable · 10 Dec 2024 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
10 Dec 2024 |
I previously believed this, but this post makes me more skeptical.
Not checkable · 10 Dec 2024 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
10 Dec 2024 |
My uneasy synthesis is that criminals have nominated themselves for the short end of a tradeoff.
Not checkable · 10 Dec 2024 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
10 Dec 2024 |
You laugh, but this is exactly how our health care system works.
Not checkable · 10 Dec 2024 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
10 Dec 2024 |
Everyone was right to criticize me, because I have a confused and muddled middle position here.
Not checkable · 10 Dec 2024 |
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| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
10 Dec 2024 |
Scott Alexander tentatively suggested that a realistic version of the scenario might mean roughly a 33% decrease in the crime rate per 600 years.
Prediction · 10 Dec 2024 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
10 Dec 2024 |
I think if first shoplifting arrest is a warning, this would be a good way of dealing with the second and third, and then after the Xth…
Not checkable · 10 Dec 2024 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
10 Dec 2024 |
But we shouldn’t weigh criminals’ at zero, and we definitely shouldn’t punish them just for fun.
Not checkable · 10 Dec 2024 |
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| Not researched |
Factual |
10 Dec 2024 |
The vast majority of crimes are property crimes, and prisons offer fewer things to steal than the outside world.
Factual · 10 Dec 2024 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
10 Dec 2024 |
Yeah, this is an interesting point.
Not checkable · 10 Dec 2024 |
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| Not researched |
Factual |
10 Dec 2024 |
Scott Alexander wrote that it appears to be true that El Salvador's homicide decline began before mass incarceration, pointing to a graph from the original post with key events marked.
Factual · 10 Dec 2024 |
Other |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
10 Dec 2024 |
Scott Alexander cited the superiority of police deterrence over prison as an argument that lets the discussion sidestep the retribution issue.
Factual · 10 Dec 2024 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
10 Dec 2024 |
I have heard this from many people but don’t understand it.
Not checkable · 10 Dec 2024 |
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| Own records only |
Factual |
10 Dec 2024 |
Scott Alexander limited how much he discussed punishment-as-retribution in his original prison post because it is a culture-war scissor topic.
Factual · 10 Dec 2024 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
10 Dec 2024 |
This kind of conflicts with the “criminals have high time preference and make terrible decisions” point above, so I’m not sure what to…
Not checkable · 10 Dec 2024 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
10 Dec 2024 |
Since I think different people will have different intuitions on this, I think it was the right strategy.
Not checkable · 10 Dec 2024 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
10 Dec 2024 |
How come in one million articles about Bukele and crime in El Salvador, including many trying to discredit him or say it wasn’t worth it…
Not checkable · 10 Dec 2024 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
10 Dec 2024 |
I would be curious to learn whether European countries really do have more street cops than the US, and, if so, why (given that the US has…
Not checkable · 10 Dec 2024 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
10 Dec 2024 |
Either way, I think being exposed to intra-prison crimes is a small fraction of the badness of prison that doesn’t change that analysis…
Not checkable · 10 Dec 2024 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
10 Dec 2024 |
But I am least willing to discount the suffering of prisoners when I remember that the above has almost no relation to reality.
Not checkable · 10 Dec 2024 |
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| Resolved true |
Factual |
10 Dec 2024 |
Solitary confinement for prisoners might be more expensive than standard imprisonment.
Factual · 10 Dec 2024 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
10 Dec 2024 |
Following Roodman, Scott's original cost-benefit analysis of prison gave two conclusions: one counting prisoners' own suffering and one not.
Factual · 10 Dec 2024 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not researched |
Factual |
10 Dec 2024 |
Scott Alexander says he thinks the eugenic effect raised by several people on Twitter is almost zero, a view he calls a surprising claim and compares with the Nazi eugenics program against schizophrenics.
Factual · 10 Dec 2024 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
10 Dec 2024 |
Most of the benefits of prison come from incapacitation rather than deterrence.
Factual · 10 Dec 2024 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not researched |
Factual |
10 Dec 2024 |
The data on European versus US police numbers is from 2019, before the wave of 'defund the police'.
Factual · 10 Dec 2024 |
Other |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
10 Dec 2024 |
I also don’t think it’s exactly right to say that incarceration only relocates (rather than prevents) crime.
Not checkable · 10 Dec 2024 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
10 Dec 2024 |
Whether prisoners commit crimes against other prisoners is also important, but it’s a different question.
Not checkable · 10 Dec 2024 |
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| Unresolvable |
Factual |
10 Dec 2024 |
Scott Alexander relays that someone with experience in the field told him there are some problems with hiring police, such as requiring everyone who works in law enforcement to start as a beat cop.
Factual · 10 Dec 2024 |
Other |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
10 Dec 2024 |
Maybe at least give prisoners the choice?
Not checkable · 10 Dec 2024 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
10 Dec 2024 |
I hear so many outrageous stories of extreme strictness and so many outrageous stories of extreme laxity
Not checkable · 10 Dec 2024 |
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| Resolved true |
Factual |
10 Dec 2024 |
Last month's issue of Asterisk (November 2024) contains an interview with Skarbek, which Scott thinks will be online shortly.
Factual · 10 Dec 2024 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
10 Dec 2024 |
I am most willing to discount the suffering of prisoners when I think of this in a game theoretic way.
Not checkable · 10 Dec 2024 |
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| Not yet due |
Prediction |
10 Dec 2024 |
Scott Alexander said, in a conditional aside, that he expects a singularity in the next few decades.
Prediction · 10 Dec 2024 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
10 Dec 2024 |
if the news on the ground is that theft is down, I believe it.
Not checkable · 10 Dec 2024 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
10 Dec 2024 |
I wonder if people ever try GPS tracking (without the rest of probation) as a prison alternative.
Not checkable · 10 Dec 2024 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
10 Dec 2024 |
Yeah, everyone I know with experience says that solitary confinement is torture, but I would naively expect to prefer it to normal prison.
Not checkable · 10 Dec 2024 |
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| Not researched |
Factual |
10 Dec 2024 |
Scott wrote the original prison post to respond to debates (e.g., on California's Prop 36) on whether prison effectively decreases crime that ordinary people suffer in their neighborhoods.
Factual · 10 Dec 2024 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
10 Dec 2024 |
The end result of legal protections for people who prey on the kindness of others is the transformation of decent people into chumps who…
Not checkable · 10 Dec 2024 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
10 Dec 2024 |
I’m including this here as a counter to Peter’s story of the guy who got two years in jail for driving the speed limit.
Not checkable · 10 Dec 2024 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
10 Dec 2024 |
I hold this position pretty strongly with regard to the people who just abstractly think making prisoners suffer is nice.
Not checkable · 10 Dec 2024 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
10 Dec 2024 |
This isn’t very clearly written, but my impression is that Peter is saying that violating probation gives you a longer prison sentence than…
Not checkable · 10 Dec 2024 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
10 Dec 2024 |
I content myself with thinking that the incapacitation-optimal amount of prison (probably 20 years to life for a murder) is already pretty…
Not checkable · 10 Dec 2024 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
10 Dec 2024 |
And if it wasn’t Bukele or mass incarceration that did it, then what was it?
Not checkable · 10 Dec 2024 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
10 Dec 2024 |
I think this matches my picture of “most don’t have very stable lives, but some do, and most have something.”
Not checkable · 10 Dec 2024 |
|
| Resolved true |
Factual |
10 Dec 2024 |
In the original post, Scott said that although murder was down in El Salvador, the statistics didn't really show a decline in theft.
Factual · 10 Dec 2024 |
Other |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
10 Dec 2024 |
I would rather protect the ability to be kind in general by suspending kindness against anyone deliberately taking advantage of it.
Not checkable · 10 Dec 2024 |
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| Not researched |
Factual |
10 Dec 2024 |
The Nazis killed most schizophrenics in Germany and schizophrenia is 80% genetic, yet the next generation had the same number of schizophrenics within measurement error.
Factual · 10 Dec 2024 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
10 Dec 2024 |
Sometimes I think the difference between smart people and dumb people is that dumb people make dumb mistakes in Near Mode, and smart people…
Not checkable · 10 Dec 2024 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
10 Dec 2024 |
I think people would justly distrust me if I pretended to be answering the question they cared about, but actually answered a different…
Not checkable · 10 Dec 2024 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
20 Feb 2023 |
I can’t tell if I was better at predicting technical rather than social issues.
Not checkable · 20 Feb 2023 |
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| Not yet due |
Prediction |
20 Feb 2023 |
Within five years AI may be able to make a short cartoony YouTube clip or a buggy app-style game on request, but not an Assassin's Creed-quality game.
Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
20 Feb 2023 |
As of 2023 the technology to offer polygenic scores to consumers definitely exists.
Factual · 20 Feb 2023 |
Technology |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
20 Feb 2023 |
I think these were boring cowardly nothing-ever-happens predictions that mostly came true.
Not checkable · 20 Feb 2023 |
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| Not researched |
Factual |
20 Feb 2023 |
A polygenic embryo selection product exists and is available through LifeView as of early 2023.
Factual · 20 Feb 2023 |
Technology |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
20 Feb 2023 |
From a technical point of view this was a good prediction; from a social point of view I was completely off in thinking anyone would care.
Not checkable · 20 Feb 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
20 Feb 2023 |
I can’t remember whether I knew about them in 2018 or whether this was a good prediction.
Not checkable · 20 Feb 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
20 Feb 2023 |
Overall grade: A
Not checkable · 20 Feb 2023 |
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| Not yet due |
Prediction |
20 Feb 2023 |
He listed, as one item among predictions with a 2028 deadline, that an off-the-shelf AI, given a random computer game and an API that lets it play against itself as often as it wants, would reach the performance of a mediocre human, with programmers allowed to adjust it for compatibility with that game.
Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Not yet due |
Prediction |
20 Feb 2023 |
He expected language-model agents that act on the internet (for example, answering emails or ordering food) to be ready within five years, though he said they might not reach the reliability needed, as with self-driving cars.
Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 |
AI capabilities |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
20 Feb 2023 |
It was hard to make specific predictions about things five years in advance.
Not checkable · 20 Feb 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
20 Feb 2023 |
Predicting five years out doesn't feel five times harder than predicting one year out.
Not checkable · 20 Feb 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
20 Feb 2023 |
Looking back I probably had enough information that I should have put this at more like 5% - 10%.
Not checkable · 20 Feb 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
20 Feb 2023 |
The prediction I’m least proud of is that Roe v. Wade definitely wouldn’t be overturned.
Not checkable · 20 Feb 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
20 Feb 2023 |
This lopsided ratio doesn't necessarily mean I'm a bad predictor (I gave most of them low percent chances), but it does mean most of the…
Not checkable · 20 Feb 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
20 Feb 2023 |
Basically none of this happened.
Not checkable · 20 Feb 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
20 Feb 2023 |
I grade 1, 5, and 6 as coming true; 2, 3, and 4 as not coming true, and 7 as “more”, all of which I got directionally correct.
Not checkable · 20 Feb 2023 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
20 Feb 2023 |
The Ukraine war was the biggest geopolitical story of 2018-2023, and Scott Alexander's 2018 predictions did not anticipate it.
Factual · 20 Feb 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched |
Factual |
20 Feb 2023 |
Kamala Harris did not get close to becoming president by early 2023, though Biden chose her as vice president.
Factual · 20 Feb 2023 |
Other |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
20 Feb 2023 |
Some took the form of “things won’t change”, and that was true.
Not checkable · 20 Feb 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
20 Feb 2023 |
AGI: This is a meaningless term.
Not checkable · 20 Feb 2023 |
|
| Not yet due |
Prediction |
20 Feb 2023 |
2020 will have been a low point; things will not get that bad and violent again in the next five years (to 2028).
Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not researched |
Factual |
20 Feb 2023 |
The Middle East as a whole did not get worse; Lebanon had an economic collapse but stayed relatively politically stable, and a cease-fire in Yemen was still hanging on.
Factual · 20 Feb 2023 |
Other |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
20 Feb 2023 |
Scott Alexander said his biggest failure was item 10 of his 2018 predictions, where he gave Roe v. Wade only a 1% chance of being overturned.
Factual · 20 Feb 2023 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
20 Feb 2023 |
If I only I could be this prescient when actually investing.
Not checkable · 20 Feb 2023 |
|
| Not researched |
Factual |
20 Feb 2023 |
As of early 2023 the Republican Party has not moved on from Donald Trump in any direction.
Factual · 20 Feb 2023 |
Other |
| Not yet due |
Prediction |
20 Feb 2023 |
He does not expect an AI singularity before 2028.
Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
20 Feb 2023 |
The neoliberal/progressive split continues to exist, but I don’t think it’s tenser than in 2018, and might even be less tense now that…
Not checkable · 20 Feb 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
20 Feb 2023 |
I don’t think AI safety has fully absorbed the lesson from Simulators: the first powerful AIs might be simulators with goal functions very…
Not checkable · 20 Feb 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
20 Feb 2023 |
Overall grade: B
Not checkable · 20 Feb 2023 |
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| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
20 Feb 2023 |
But I don’t want to take too much credit here - I was thinking of something much more obviously artificial than COVID (even if it does end…
Not checkable · 20 Feb 2023 |
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