ClaimsPeople

Scott Alexander

Scott Alexander is a writer known for his blogs Astral Codex Ten and Slate Star Codex and for fiction including Unsong.

775 claims collected, 234 researched, 81 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+8bea457b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    80 72 88

    Medium confidence, 35 factual claims resolved. From 10 documents, 2014 to 2026; 15 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 46 unresolvable, 9 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    70 62 78

    Medium confidence, 44 predictions resolved. From 7 documents, 2016 to 2025; 15 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 67 unresolvable, 10 checkable only against their own records. 19 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 2 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    See the promises

All types combined: 75 (likely 69 to 80, high confidence), from 79 claims: 35 factual claims, 44 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Scott Alexander's claims

19 claims

19 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Not yet due Prediction 3 Apr 2025 Scott Alexander suggested it might be useful to think of 'our timelines' as being like 2070 to 2100, with the last 50 to 70 years of that progress happening during 2027 to 2028 because of what he described as an intelligence explosion. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Prediction 3 Apr 2025 The AI-assisted research progress will start to pay off in 2027, the year the scenario is named after. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Prediction 3 Apr 2025 AI will show slightly better coding in 2025, then slightly better agents and coding in 2026. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI capabilities
Not yet due Prediction 3 Apr 2025 Scott Alexander guessed that the prediction market under discussion would resolve when AI agents are actually good, which he put at roughly late 2026 in their scenario. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Prediction 10 Dec 2024 Scott Alexander said, in a conditional aside, that he expects a singularity in the next few decades. Prediction · 10 Dec 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Prediction 20 Feb 2023 Within five years AI may be able to make a short cartoony YouTube clip or a buggy app-style game on request, but not an Assassin's Creed-quality game. Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI capabilities
Not yet due Prediction 20 Feb 2023 He listed, as one item among predictions with a 2028 deadline, that an off-the-shelf AI, given a random computer game and an API that lets it play against itself as often as it wants, would reach the performance of a mediocre human, with programmers allowed to adjust it for compatibility with that game. Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI capabilities
Not yet due Prediction 20 Feb 2023 He expected language-model agents that act on the internet (for example, answering emails or ordering food) to be ready within five years, though he said they might not reach the reliability needed, as with self-driving cars. Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI capabilities
Not yet due Prediction 20 Feb 2023 2020 will have been a low point; things will not get that bad and violent again in the next five years (to 2028). Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 Philosophy, ethics and society
Not yet due Prediction 20 Feb 2023 He does not expect an AI singularity before 2028. Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI timelines and forecasting
Not yet due Prediction 20 Feb 2023 His decision to devote more space to AI than to all non-AI topics combined will look prescient by 2028, even if his explicit predictions are wrong. Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 Their own work or organisation
Not yet due Prediction 20 Feb 2023 AI will not immediately revolutionize the economy, and he would be mildly surprised if it showed up as a visible break from trend in major macroeconomic indicators (GDP, unemployment, productivity); the claim is assessed by 2028. Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Prediction 20 Feb 2023 Ethereum and Bitcoin will do fine by 2028 (Ethereum because stablecoins are built on its chain). Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 20 Feb 2023 Altcoins will mostly not do fine by 2028. Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 Economics and markets
Not yet due Prediction 20 Feb 2023 He said he does not expect advances in genetics by 2028 to yield anything more interesting than one or two last-ditch treatments for rare diseases, "if that". Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 Science and research methods
Not yet due Prediction 20 Feb 2023 AI's revolutionary economic effects will show up eventually in macroeconomic indicators, but not by 2028. Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI, the economy and work
Not yet due Prediction 20 Feb 2023 By 2028 there will be more of a movement to ban or restrict AI. Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI policy and governance
Not yet due Prediction 20 Feb 2023 Ukraine and Russia will reach an unsatisfying stalemate before 2028, followed by massive growth in Ukraine. Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 Other
Not yet due Prediction 20 Feb 2023 He gave a 60% probability that by 2028 AI would be a smaller political issue than abortion, with 20% each for bigger and equal. Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI policy and governance
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Scott Alexander

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Prediction AI policy and governance

“AI is a (bigger/equal/smaller) political issue than abortion: 20% / 20% / 60%”

Scott Alexander, blogger 20 February 2023 Grading My 2018 Predictions For 2023 (Astral Codex Ten)

He gave a 60% probability that by 2028 AI would be a smaller political issue than abortion, with 20% each for bigger and equal.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Reasoning

deadline 2028 is after 2026-11-04

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “He gave a 60% probability that by 2028 AI would be a smaller political issue than abortion, with 20% each for bigger and equal.” (said 20 February 2023). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_f30e2b8239da, method 0.1.0+8bea457b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_f30e2b8239da

Claims without a verdict

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