Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
80 72 88 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
70 62 78 -
Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
Insufficient record: 2 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.
All types combined: 75 (likely 69 to 80, high confidence), from 79 claims: 35 factual claims, 44 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Scott Alexander's claims
“Ukraine will neither break into all-out war or get neatly resolved: 80%”
Scott Alexander, blogger 25 January 2016 Predictions For 2016 (Slate Star Codex)
Ukraine will neither break into all-out war nor get neatly resolved in 2016.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
The 80% is only Scott's confidence. True: in 2016 the conflict in eastern Ukraine neither grew into all-out war (open, large-scale conventional fighting between Ukraine and Russia, or a major new offensive taking large amounts of territory) nor reached a settlement that actually ended it (a lasting peace deal that is carried out, or a complete return of the territory). A frozen conflict with low-level ceasefire violations counts as true. False: either all-out war or a clear settlement happened in 2016. Mostly false: there was a major escalation or a breakthrough agreement that came close to either outcome without quite reaching it.
Evidence
- 'Difficult' Ukraine talks end with no breakthrough Deutsche Welle (DW) · 29 November 2016
“There weren't any breakthroughs today. The Minsk agreements are stalled - we're not managing to agree on the sequence of steps,”
- S-RM: New talks on Ukraine bring little hope for peace Daily Maverick (opinion piece by S-RM analyst Saif Islam) · 26 October 2016
“Ceasefire violations have become the norm, and all parties appear comfortable with this status quo”
- S-RM: New talks on Ukraine bring little hope for peace Daily Maverick (opinion piece by S-RM analyst Saif Islam) · 26 October 2016
“While an agreement was reportedly reached to establish a new road map to implement the Minsk peace deal, there were no major breakthroughs, a widely expected outcome.”
- War in Eastern Ukraine Wikipedia
“Donbas remained a war zone, with dozens killed monthly.”
Reasoning
Independent reporting from late 2016 shows the conflict stayed unresolved. On 2016-11-29, DW reported that talks ended with no breakthrough and that the Minsk agreements had stalled (E1). An October 2016 analysis described ceasefire violations as "the norm" and a status quo that all parties seemed comfortable with, with no major breakthroughs (E2, E3). A Wikipedia summary, not dated to 2016, says Donbas remained a war zone, with dozens killed each month (E4). That fits the frozen conflict with low-level violations that the criteria count as true, and no evidence points to all-out war or a settlement, though the dated reporting stops at the end of November.
Cite this claim
Scott Alexander, “Ukraine will neither break into all-out war nor get neatly resolved in 2016.” (said 25 January 2016). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_97ca272bbdfa, method 0.1.0+8bea457b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_97ca272bbdfa
Claims without a verdict
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