Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
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Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
80 72 88 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
70 62 78 -
Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
Insufficient record: 2 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.
All types combined: 75 (likely 69 to 80, high confidence), from 79 claims: 35 factual claims, 44 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Scott Alexander's claims
“No major earthquake (>10000 deaths) in the world: 60%”
Scott Alexander, blogger 25 January 2016 Predictions For 2016 (Slate Star Codex)
There will be no earthquake in the world killing more than 10,000 people in 2016.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
What would count as true or false
Judge whether the predicted event happened; the 60% probability does not change what counts. True: no single earthquake anywhere in the world between 1 January and 31 December 2016 has a recorded death toll above 10,000 in authoritative catalogues (USGS significant-earthquake list or NOAA NCEI Significant Earthquake Database). False: at least one 2016 earthquake has a recorded death toll above 10,000. Mostly false: the deadliest 2016 quake's toll is disputed and sources differ on whether it passed 10,000. Deaths from secondary effects (tsunami, landslide) count where the catalogues credit them to the earthquake. Mostly true and mixed do not apply in practice.
Evidence
- 2016 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report Aon Benfield (Analytics | Impact Forecasting)
“earthquake in Ecuador that claimed at least 673 lives.”
- 2016 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report Aon Benfield Analytics / Impact Forecasting
“Seven of the top ten events occurred in Asia, though the deadliest event was the April earthquake in Ecuador that claimed at least 673 lives.”
- List of earthquakes in 2016 Wikipedia
“Deadliest: 7.8 M_{w}, Ecuador 676 deaths”
- Annual Disaster Statistical Review 2016 Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) · October 2017
“These numbers are however, far below the extremes of 222,570 deaths from an earthquake in Haiti in 2010”
- Annual Disaster Statistical Review 2016 Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) · October 2017
“In 2016, 1,315 deaths from geophysical disasters were reported, representing 15% of all deaths”
Reasoning
The 2016 Aon Benfield annual catastrophe report says the deadliest event of the year was the April earthquake in Ecuador, which killed at least 673 people (E1, E2). The Wikipedia list of 2016 earthquakes also names the Ecuador quake as the deadliest, with 676 deaths (E4). CRED reports 1,315 deaths from all geophysical disasters worldwide in 2016 (E6). None of the sources is the USGS or NOAA catalogue named in the criteria, but all three put the deadliest 2016 earthquake far below 10,000 deaths, so the claim resolves true.
Cite this claim
Scott Alexander, “There will be no earthquake in the world killing more than 10,000 people in 2016.” (said 25 January 2016). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_116fd39200f0, method 0.1.0+8bea457b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_116fd39200f0
Claims without a verdict
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