| Unresolvable |
Factual |
19 Oct 2026 |
MNX lets people sell futures representing AI company stocks, bet on AI company revenues, and trade on targets such as the Epoch Capabilities Index.
Factual · 19 Oct 2026 |
Economics and markets |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
19 Oct 2026 |
MNX, a project of Manifold Markets co-founder Stephen Grugett, is a real-money prediction market on AI.
Factual · 19 Oct 2026 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
19 Oct 2026 |
Goodheart Labs is working on Common Notes, described as Twitter Community Notes but for everything.
Factual · 19 Oct 2026 |
Technology |
| Not researched |
Factual |
19 Oct 2026 |
ACX has an unofficial subreddit, Discord and bulletin board, and in-person meetups around the world.
Factual · 19 Oct 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
19 Oct 2026 |
I may have more of these in the upcoming week.
Not checkable · 19 Oct 2026 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
19 Oct 2026 |
An alternate survey asks respondents to predict how Scott Alexander would answer the first survey, to separate worldview differences from random noise.
Factual · 19 Oct 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
19 Oct 2026 |
Common Notes is implemented through AIs writing most notes, users writing and voting on notes, and a browser extension that shows the system on any site, including ACX.
Factual · 19 Oct 2026 |
AI capabilities |
| Not researched |
Factual |
19 Oct 2026 |
The Bay Area ACX meetup is scheduled for Saturday 24 October 2026 at 1 PM at Mox, 1680 Mission St, San Francisco.
Factual · 19 Oct 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
19 Oct 2026 |
Still trying to figure out if we can do something for the Bay Area
Not checkable · 19 Oct 2026 |
|
| Not researched |
Factual |
19 Oct 2026 |
Despite talk of Anthropic's API falling from $2T to $1.5T, both Polymarket and MNX still price it around $2T.
Factual · 19 Oct 2026 |
Economics and markets |
| Not researched |
Factual |
19 Oct 2026 |
Scott Alexander's new survey asks respondents to assign utility weights to about 80 different AI safety accomplishments.
Factual · 19 Oct 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
19 Oct 2026 |
ACX meetups in Rockville, Northampton, Eindhoven, Great Barrington, Cairo, Portland and Sofia have had changes announced as of October 2026.
Factual · 19 Oct 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
19 Oct 2026 |
Check it out, and install the browser extension, here.
Not checkable · 19 Oct 2026 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
19 Oct 2026 |
I would once again like people who are well-versed in the AI/grantmaking worlds to take a survey on how much they value various things.
Not checkable · 19 Oct 2026 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
19 Oct 2026 |
ACX's main San Francisco endorsement for the 2026 election is Scott Wiener for Congress.
Factual · 19 Oct 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
19 Oct 2026 |
The Boston ACX meetup group has finished its Greater Boston general election voting guide.
Factual · 19 Oct 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
19 Oct 2026 |
This is the weekly visible open thread.
Not checkable · 19 Oct 2026 |
|
| Delivered on time |
Promise |
19 Oct 2026 |
Scott Alexander will probably publish a post about the Bay Area ACX meetup.
Promise · 19 Oct 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Own records only |
Factual |
19 Oct 2026 |
Scott Alexander is continuing to work on modeling, and maybe later automating, parts of AI grantmaking.
Factual · 19 Oct 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
5 Oct 2026 |
Reader Nikita Sokolsky has finished obtaining extra Fatima documents from Portugal and translating them into English.
Factual · 5 Oct 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not researched |
Factual |
5 Oct 2026 |
Brigham Young University's EA college meetup has changed its time, date and place.
Factual · 5 Oct 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
5 Oct 2026 |
Most Astral Codex Ten content is free and some is subscriber-only.
Factual · 5 Oct 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
5 Oct 2026 |
I’m pretty busy and will try to make up for it after that changes.
Not checkable · 5 Oct 2026 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
5 Oct 2026 |
Scott Alexander has written little recently on ACX and forgot to post Friday's book review entry.
Factual · 5 Oct 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Resolved true |
Factual |
5 Oct 2026 |
Rob Ennals, who made this year's ACX book review contest site, has gathered reviews from earlier years into epubs.
Factual · 5 Oct 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly true |
Factual |
5 Oct 2026 |
Physicians For AI Safety exists, wants to talk to physicians interested in AI safety, and has an open letter such people can sign.
Factual · 5 Oct 2026 |
Field building and careers |
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
5 Oct 2026 |
Astral Codex Ten has an unofficial subreddit, Discord and bulletin board, and in-person meetups around the world.
Factual · 5 Oct 2026 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
5 Oct 2026 |
This is the weekly visible open thread.
Not checkable · 5 Oct 2026 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
5 Oct 2026 |
And thanks again to Ana for handling the parts that required Portuguese profiency.
Not checkable · 5 Oct 2026 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
We know that in general, the median outcome for a forecast like this is being totally humiliated when everything goes completely…
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
To me, the differences between an autocratic centralized three-letter agency and an autocratic centralized corporation aren’t that exciting…
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
I do think courage has to be some part of the explanation.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
But I think that our policy prescription is let’s try as hard as we can to make it happen.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
Humans have such good heuristics that probably most of the things that show up even in our conscious mind, rather than happening on the…
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
I don’t understand why they can write good magazine articles without being good bloggers.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Not researched |
Factual |
3 Apr 2025 |
Scott Alexander said his impression is that economists who model long-run growth think the data are not good enough to tell whether history is one smooth process or a series of phase changes.
Factual · 3 Apr 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
And the limiting factor is basically hours in Elon’s day in the sense that he cannot be doing that with everybody’s.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Not researched |
Factual |
3 Apr 2025 |
Scott Alexander said he thinks "we" are training AI in multiple different directions at once: telling it to succeed at tasks, but also not to seek power in particular ways.
Factual · 3 Apr 2025 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
3 Apr 2025 |
There is only about a 20% chance that things go as fast as the speakers' scenario says.
Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
If you have a physics simulation available, then all of these real world bottlenecks don’t matter as much.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Not researched |
Factual |
3 Apr 2025 |
Scott Alexander said he thought Metaculus's timeline forecast was around 2050 in 2020.
Factual · 3 Apr 2025 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
If people have questions about quantum computing, they ask Scott Aronson or he is like the authority.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
You tend to get more of a diffusion of power democracy where there are many different groups and none of them can really act on their own.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
We’re not sure about that, actually.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
3 Apr 2025 |
Once a million robots a month are being produced, AIs will get many physical-world things done very quickly, including many physical experiments.
Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 |
AI capabilities |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
If you can create a country of geniuses in a data center, as I think Dario Amodei put it, then you no longer have this population bottleneck
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
3 Apr 2025 |
The speaker said that he and his co-authors theorise that AI labs are, partly consciously and partly accidentally, working toward an intelligence explosion in which AIs take over some AI research and speed it up.
Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
And I think that once a thousand of these natural consequences of training add up, the AI is evil, in the same way that once the AI can do…
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
If our timeline was 2040, then I would have these broad heuristics about is government good? Is private industry good? Things like this.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
The problem isn’t that they are dumber than the Aborigines exactly, it’s that the Aborigines have a vast head start.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
And here not only is society inherently chaotic, but there are so many things that we could be leaving out.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
In another phase we may make policy suggestions, and one of the ones that Daniel has talked about that makes a lot of sense to me is to…
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Own records only |
Factual |
3 Apr 2025 |
Scott Alexander discovers a new blogger he is super excited about about once a year.
Factual · 3 Apr 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
I think, read the document and decide which of us is right.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Own records only |
Factual |
3 Apr 2025 |
Typically about 1% of the people who read a blog's viral hit stick around as regular readers, based on Slate Star Codex's early growth.
Factual · 3 Apr 2025 |
Their own work or organisation |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
They already understand that superintelligence is kind of the key to power in the future.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
And I think that’s like the closest thing we have to a neutral aggregator where we’re not cherry picking things.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
So that 80% of scenarios where we survive contains a lot of really bad things that I’m not happy about.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
But only like 1% of these people who are good at short and medium form ever go to long form.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
I do just think it’s true that the good blogging space is undersupplied and there is a strong power law.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
I absolutely reject the premise that everybody has always been too optimistic.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Not researched |
Factual |
3 Apr 2025 |
On the hyperbola view, the last bottleneck was around 1960, when human population growth slowed from its earlier rate.
Factual · 3 Apr 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Resolved true |
Prediction |
3 Apr 2025 |
In the AI 2027 scenario, the government becomes extremely interested in AI and discusses nationalizing the AI companies.
Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Not researched |
Factual |
3 Apr 2025 |
Humans evolved under a genetic imperative to pass on their own genetic information rather than others'.
Factual · 3 Apr 2025 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
3 Apr 2025 |
Scott Alexander said that he and the others he spoke for do not think the process being discussed will shoot to infinity in a hyperbolic fashion, and that they expect it to hit bottlenecks again.
Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
3 Apr 2025 |
Scott Alexander said that "we" think the process under discussion will not "shoot to infinity" but will hit bottlenecks again, as previous processes did.
Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
3 Apr 2025 |
It will be hard to maintain classical liberalism during difficult AI arms races in times of crisis.
Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
I see the AI is lying, and it’s obviously just an artifact of the training process.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Not researched |
Factual |
3 Apr 2025 |
Wright's law holds that efficiency improvement on a process is proportional to doublings of the number of copies produced.
Factual · 3 Apr 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
they actually have a huge amount of things to say.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
We have something which is smarter than Elon Musk, better at optimizing things than Elon Musk.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
3 Apr 2025 |
All humans are descended from groups that exterminated other groups, and most groups throughout history have been wiped out.
Factual · 3 Apr 2025 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
I only like certain bloggers, there are many people who I’m sure are great that I don’t like.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Not researched |
Factual |
3 Apr 2025 |
The fastest historical conversion of car factories to other production that they found was in World War II, converting car factories to bomber factories.
Factual · 3 Apr 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
3 Apr 2025 |
Scott Alexander said he thinks AI companies will literally train their AIs to be more cooperative.
Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
Part of what they want is security, because they know that if China steals some of this and they get these superhuman hackers, and part of…
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
3 Apr 2025 |
He is less sure about requiring labs to publish safety cases, because he thinks they would kind of fake it or publish a safety case made for public consumption that is not their real one.
Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
Yeah, we don’t know how this will work at the limit of all these different training methods, but we’re also not completely making this up.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
3 Apr 2025 |
The AI arms race framing that people already use will have intensified by the time of superintelligence.
Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
I mean there are probably hundreds of other professors who do quantum computing things but nobody knows who they are because they don’t…
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
And there my answer is just, “I don’t know. Let’s ask the super intelligent AI oracle. Maybe it has good ideas”.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
Your blog posts are actually very good.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
Yeah.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Unresolvable |
Factual |
3 Apr 2025 |
The general research speedup multiplier today is about a thousand times that of the Paleolithic era.
Factual · 3 Apr 2025 |
Economics and markets |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
I can also count on a pretty small number of figures the number of people who had great blog posts but weren’t that prolific.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Not researched |
Factual |
3 Apr 2025 |
Through genetic evolution, human minds adapted to be more amenable to cooperation.
Factual · 3 Apr 2025 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not researched |
Factual |
3 Apr 2025 |
Many of these training failure modes have already been observed in existing AI agents.
Factual · 3 Apr 2025 |
AI safety and alignment |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
I do think it’s possible to unbundle liberalism in this sense.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
I think with blogs and I mean this is self-serving, maybe I’m an arrogant person, but that doesn’t seem to be the case.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Not yet due |
Prediction |
3 Apr 2025 |
Scott Alexander suggested it might be useful to think of 'our timelines' as being like 2070 to 2100, with the last 50 to 70 years of that progress happening during 2027 to 2028 because of what he described as an intelligence explosion.
Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
There are many, many times more people who have written good books than who are actively operating great bloggers right now, I think.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Not researched |
Factual |
3 Apr 2025 |
The United States is a liberal country and bans slavery and torture.
Factual · 3 Apr 2025 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
Works in Progress is a great magazine.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
we’re trying to take almost in some sense a conservative position where the trends don’t change, nobody does an insane thing, nothing that…
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Not researched |
Factual |
3 Apr 2025 |
A major part of the AI 2027 scenario is a whistleblower coming out saying the AIs are horribly misaligned and labs are racing ahead anyway, after which the government pays attention.
Factual · 3 Apr 2025 |
AI policy and governance |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
3 Apr 2025 |
About a year after superintelligences start wanting robots, they will be producing a million robots per month (AI 2027 scenario estimate).
Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 |
AI, the economy and work |
| Unresolvable |
Prediction |
3 Apr 2025 |
If a Dyson sphere is achieved within five years, it will look like AIs simulated more things than humans in a gradually increasing way.
Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 |
AI timelines and forecasting |
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
Partly you get this by bumbling about and having accidents and some of those accidents are productive.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Not checkable |
Not checkable |
3 Apr 2025 |
I think there are two reasons why they might fail to do what you want, kind of reflecting how they’re trained.
Not checkable · 3 Apr 2025 |
|
| Mostly true |
Factual |
3 Apr 2025 |
Through history, people have been reluctant to admit an AI is truly intelligent.
Factual · 3 Apr 2025 |
Philosophy, ethics and society |